2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios - Week 5
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2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios – Week 15

Seriously, though. If you haven’t been watching pro field this season, you have been MISSING OUT. As we enter the final week of the regular season and not a single 2016 MLL Playoff spot has been guaranteed yet. All but two teams are still fighting for those four postseason placements. I suggest you start paying attention now!

Are you not entertained?

Honestly, with how this year has gone, I’d barely even thought about2016 MLL Playoff seeding until now. Is a 1 seed really better than a 4? There is no home field advantage as both semifinal sites are neutral. If you get that #1 seed, is there really a team you want to see get that 4 spot?

Current 2016 MLL Playoff Standings

#

Team

Wins

Losses

Win %

Goals For

Goals Against

Margin

Last Week

1

New York

8

5

61.5%

205

204

+1

#2

2

Chesapeake

8

5

61.5%

178

175

+3

#1

3

Denver

8

6

57.1%

201

206

-5

#6

4

Ohio

7

6

53.8%

187

170

+17

#3

5

Charlotte

7

6

53.8%

175

175

0

#4

6

Boston

7

6

53.8%

169

173

-4

#7

7

Rochester

7

6

53.8%

188

158

+30

#5

8

Atlanta

4

9

30.8%

180

191

-11

#8

9

Florida

3

10

23.1%

158

189

-34

#9

Current meaning of 2016 MLL Playoff seeds: In all honesty, the seeds mean nothing right now. Nothing at all.

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#1 New York (8-5)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta W by 1 (+1)
Vs. Boston W by 1, L by 1 (0)
Vs. Charlotte W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 3, W by 6 (+3)
Vs. Denver W by 3, L by 4 (-1)
Vs. Florida W by 4, L by 1 (+3)
Vs. Ohio L by 12 (-12)
Vs. Rochester W by 3, W by 1 (+4)

Remaining:
Vs. Ohio (8/06)

Paul Rabil - 2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for NY Lizards
Rabil goes to the hole

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The Lizards had the tough task of trying to win two games in the same weekend, and were not able to. They got a big win over Chesapeake, which swung them from a -3 to a +3 against the Bayhawks, a big help for potential tiebreakers. They then lost to the Cannons in a tough overtime game. That gives them a net zero margin against Boston, but it never really comes into play for tiebreakers, oddly enough. How many 2016 MLL Playoff games do you think the Zards will win?

To get the #1 Seed: Win. That’s all. They’re in the driver’s seat.

To get the #2 Seed: Lose and have Rochester and Boston both win.

To get the #3 Seed: lose by four or less while Chesapeake loses by 8 or more with Rochester winning and Boston losing OR
Rochester loses, Boston wins, Chesapeake loses.

To get the #4 Seed: Lose with Rochester and Boston both losing OR
Rochester loses, Chesapeake wins, and Boston wins, but not by 5 more points than New York loses by.

To miss entirely:
Lose and have Chesapeake win, Rochester lose and Boston win by five more points than New York loses by OR
Lose and Charlotte wins by 7 or more, Rochester loses, Boston wins OR
Lose, Rochester wins, Chesapeake wins, Boston loses OR
Lose by 5, Chesapeake loses by 8, Rochester wins, Boston loses OR
Lose by more than 6, Chesapeake loses by more than 8, Rochester wins Boston Loses.

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#2 Chesapeake (8-5)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta W by 3, W by 5 (+8)
Vs. Boston L by 2, L by 3 (-5)
Vs. Charlotte W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Denver W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Florida W by 4, W by 1 (+5)
Vs. New York W by 3, L by 6 (-3)
Vs. Ohio W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Rochester L by 4, L by 10 (-14)

Remaining:
Vs. Charlotte (8/06)

Miles Jones - 2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for Bayhawks
Myles Jones backs down Kyle Sweeney

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Had the Bayhawks not lost to New York, they could have locked up the season sweep along with the driver’s seat for the 2016 MLL Playoff race. They’re still in great shape, but beating Charlotte is a must for them.

To get the #1 Seed: Win and have New York lose is the easy route. They can still lose and get the #1 seed if Atlanta, Florida, and Ohio all win. That creates a five way tie breaker with New York, Chesapeake, Denver, Ohio, and Charlotte which bubbles the Bayhawks to the top.

To get the #2 Seed: If they win and New York wins, Chesapeake’s the #2. They can lose and be #2 as long as Boston and Rochester both lose as well, assuming New York won their game to be #1.

To get the #3 Seed: If New York, Rochester, and Florida all win, Chesapeake will be #3 with a loss by 3 or less. They will also be #3 if New York loses by more than six while they themselves lose by eight or more.

To get the #4 Seed: If New York, Florida and Rochester win while Chesapeake loses to Charlotte by 4 or more, OR
New York loses by 4 or less, Rochester wins, Chesapeake loses by 8 or 9, and Boston loses.

To miss entirely: Lose and…
Both Boston and Rochester win OR
Rochester wins, Ohio wins by 4 or less, Florida wins, Chesapeake loses by 10 or more OR
Rochester wins, Ohio wins by 5, Florida wins, Chesapeake loses by 8 OR
New York wins, Rochester loses, & Boston wins

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#3 Denver (8-6)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta L by 11, W by 7 (-4)
Vs. Boston W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Florida L by 3, W by 4  (+1)
Vs. New York L by 3, W by 4 (+1)
Vs. Ohio W by 1, L by 1 (0)
Vs. Rochester L by 8, W by 2 (-6)
Vs. Charlotte W by 1, W by 3 (+4)

Remaining:
Just sitting and waiting.

Denver Defense - 2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for Denver
Denver D continues to improve

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Denver scored a massive win over Rochester to make life tough for the Rattlers and keep their 2016 MLL Playoff aspirations alive. They then topped Charlotte to complete their late season sweep on the Hounds and put themselves in great position to keep playing. The Outlaws have only missed the postseason one year since their existence. It also happened to be the one year after they finally won a championship. Are these guys prepared to step up for this 2016 MLL Playoff race?

To get the #1 Seed: Hope for 2017 success. Not happening now.

To get the #2 Seed: New York, Charlotte, Boston all win OR
Ohio wins, Atlanta wins, Boston wins, and Charlotte wins.

To get the #3 Seed: Ohio, Rochester, and Boston win OR
Atlanta wins, Boston wins, and Chesapeake wins OR
Atlanta wins, and Florida wins.

To get the #4 Seed: Rochester, Florida, Ohio, Chesapeake win OR
Rochester, Florida, and Ohio win & Chesapeake loses by 8+, and New York by 5+ OR
Rochester, Florida, and NY win (by 12+) while Chesapeake wins OR
Rochester, Florida, and NY win (by 12) while Charlotte wins (by <4) OR
Rochester, Florida, and NY win (by <12) while Chesapeake wins OR
Rochester, Florida, and NY win (by 12+) while Charlotte wins (by <4) OR
Rochester, Florida, and NY win (by <12) while Charlotte wins (by <4) OR

To miss entirely:
New York, Chesapeake, Rochester, and Boston win OR
New York, Florida, Rochester win, Charlotte wins (by 4+) OR
Rochester, Florida, Ohio (by <5) and Charlotte (by 8+) win

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#4 Ohio (7-6)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta L by 1, L by 4 (-5)
Vs. Boston W by 7, W by 2 (+9)
Vs. Charlotte W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Denver L by 1, W by 1 (0)
Vs. Florida W by 2, W by 4 (+6)
Vs. New York W by 12 (+12)
Vs. Rochester L by 4, L by 3 (-7)

Remaining:
Vs. New York (8/06)

Kyle Harrison - 2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for Ohio Machine
K18 takes it to the rack

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The Ohio Machine took a tough loss last weekend, but I think we all expect them to step it up in the 2016 MLL Playoff race.

To get the #1 Seed: Win with Boston and Charlotte both winning

To get the #2 Seed: Win and Rochester wins, Florida wins, Chesapeake loses by 8 or more with New York losing by 5 or less OR
Rochester loses, Boston wins. & Chesapeake wins OR
Rochester loses & Boston loses

To get the #3 Seed: Only one scenario: Rochester, Florida, Chesapeake and Ohio all win.

To get the #4 Seed: Rochester, Boston, Chesapeake and Ohio all win OR
Rochester loses, Boston loses, Charlotte loses, and Ohio loses by 8 or less OR
Rochester loses by 6 or more, Boston loses, Charlotte loses by 2 or more, Ohio loses by 13.

To miss entirely: Lose and…
Rochester wins OR
Rochester loses, & Boston wins OR
Rochester, Boston, Chesapeake lose, assuming Chesapeake doesn’t lose by more than 14 OR
Boston loses, Charlotte loses, Rochester loses by 9 or 10, Ohio loses by 1 OR
Boston loses, Charlotte loses, Rochester loses by 11, Ohio loses by 1 or 2 OR
Boston loses, Ohio loses by 12, Rochester loses, Charlotte loses by 3 less than what Rochester loses by

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On The Fence For A 2016 MLL Playoff Spot

Charlotte (7-6)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta W by 6, W by 1 (+7)
Vs. Boston W by 3, W by 3 (+6)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 4 (-4)
Vs. Florida W by 2, W by 4 (+6)
Vs. New York L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Ohio L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Rochester W by 3 (+3), L by 4 (-1)
Vs. Denver L by 1, L by 3 (-4)

Remaining:
Vs. Chesapeake (8/06)

Joey Sankey - 2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for Charlotte Hounds
11 = baller

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Simply put, Charlotte needs help. They can win and still miss out on making a 2016 MLL Playoff game, or they can win and get in. They’re a team that these scenarios are made for!

To get the #1 Seed: Can’t happen.

To get the #2 Seed: Neither can this.

To get the #3 Seed: Now we’re talking. Win by more than 4, Rochester win, New York win, and Boston lose OR
Win by 8, New York loses by 5, Rochester wins, and Boston loses OR
Win, Rochester loses, Boston wins, New York wins OR
Win by 7 or more, Rochester loses, Boston wins, Ohio wins

To get the #4 Seed: Win by 10+, NY loses by <4, Rochester wins, Boston loses OR
Win by <6, Atlanta wins, Boston wins, Ohio wins OR
Rochester loses, Boston loses, New York wins, Charlotte wins by <14 OR
Ohio loses by 13, Rochester by 6+, Charlotte by 1, and Boston by anything OR
Ohio loses by 13+, Rochester by 6+, Charlotte by 4 less than ROC and 11 less than Ohio OR
Ohio loses by 12, Rochester by 5+, Charlotte by 1, or 4 less than Rochester.

To miss entirely:
New York, Boston, and Rochester win OR
New York and Rochester win, Charlotte wins by <4 OR
Ohio wins by 4 or less, Rochester wins, Boston loses, Charlotte wins by 8 or 9 OR
Rochester wins, Florida wins, Charlotte wins by 8+, New York loses by 6+ OR
Lose and New York wins, Atlanta wins, Florida wins, & Chesapeake wins OR
Atlanta wins by <6, Florida wins, New York wins by 13, Chesapeake wins OR
Atlanta wins by 6+, Florida wins, New York wins by 13, Chesapeake wins by 2+ OR
Atlanta wins by <4, Florida wins, New York wins by 12, Chesapeake wins OR
Atlanta wins by 5+, Florida wins, New York wins by 12, Chesapeake wins by 3 or less than Atlanta OR
Atlanta wins, Florida wins, Ohio wins, Charlotte wins

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Boston (7-6)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta W by 1, W by 9 (+10)
Vs. Charlotte L by 3, L by 3 (-6)
Vs. Chesapeake W by 2, W by 3 (+5)
Vs. Denver L by 4 (-4)
Vs. New York L by 1, W by 1 (0)
Vs. Ohio L by 7, L by 2 (-9)
Vs. Rochester W by 1, W by 6 (+7)

Remaining:
Vs. Florida (8/06)

2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for Boston Cannons
Team chemistry.

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To get the #1 Seed: Nope.

To get the #2 Seed: Still Nope.

To get the #3 Seed: Win, Rochester wins, & New York wins

To get the #4 Seed: Win, Rochester loses, New York wins OR
Win, Atlanta wins, Ohio wins, Charlotte wins by 7+ OR
Win by 5 more than New York loses, Atlanta wins, & Chesapeake wins

To miss entirely: Lose OR…
Win, Rochester wins, & Ohio wins OR
Atlanta wins, Boston wins, Ohio wins, Charlotte wins by <7 OR
Atlanta wins, Boston wins by less than 5 more than New York loses, and Chesapeake wins

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Rochester (7-6)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Boston L by 1, L by 6 (-7)
Vs. Charlotte L by 3, W by 4 (+1)
Vs. Chesapeake W by 4, W by 10 (+14)
Vs. Denver W by 8, L by 2 (+6)
Vs. New York L by 3, L by 1 (-4)
Vs. Ohio W by 4, W by 3 (+7)
Vs. Florida W by 5, (+5)

Remaining:
Vs. Atlanta (8/04)

Joel White - 2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for Rochester Rattlers
Joel White Mamba

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Last week, I said Rochester could get away with one loss out of their three remaining games. Unfortunately, that loss came against Denver, who was the worst team they could lose to. But, all is not lost for the Ratz.

Rochester’s pretty easy. They’re pretty much win and they’re in, with one exception. If Boston, Ohio, and Chesapeake all win, Rochester will be out of the 2016 MLL Playoff race. That scenario creates a five way tiebreaker with New York, Denver, Ohio, and Boston. Chesapeake would get the top seed, with the Lizards at number two, Denver third, and Ohio fourth.

Most scenarios where they lose, they are also out. The only times they can make it in while losing are when Ohio loses by more than 9 points and it still depends on how much Rochester and Charlotte lose by. It gets funky.

To get the #1 Seed: Win, Florida wins, Ohio wins, Chesapeake loses by 8+

To get the #2 Seed: Win, Florida wins, New York wins, Chesapeake loses OR Win, Florida wins, New York loses, Chesapeake wins

To get the #3 Seed: Win, Florida wins, New York wins, Chesapeake wins

To get the #4 Seed: Win, Boston wins, New York wins OR Win, Boston wins, Ohio wins, Charlotte wins OR:
Lose by 1, Florida wins, Chesapeake wins, New York wins by 9 or 10 OR
Lose by 1 or 2, Florida wins, Chesapeake wins, New York wins by 11 OR
Lose by <6, Florida wins, New York wins by 13, Chesapeake wins OR
Lose by <5, Florida wins, New York wins by 12, Chesapeake wins OR
Lose by 5+, Florida wins, New York wins by 12, Charlotte loses by 3 or less than Rochester

To miss entirely:
Win and Boston wins, Ohio wins, Chesapeake wins OR Lose and Boston wins OR
Lose and Boston loses, New York wins by 8 or less, and Chesapeake doesn’t lose by 14 OR
Lose by 6+, Boston loses, New York wins by 13, and Charlotte wins by <14 OR
Lose by 6+, Boston loses, New York wins by 13, and Chesapeake wins by for more than Rochester loses and 11 more than Ohio loses OR
Lose, Boston loses, New York wins by 12, and Charlotte wins by <14 OR
Lose by 5+, Boston loses, New York wins by 12, Charlotte loses by 4 less than Rochester

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Officially Eliminated From 2016 MLL Playoff Contention

Atlanta (4-9)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Boston L by 1, L by 9 (-10)
Vs. Charlotte L by 6, L by 1 (-7)
Vs. Chesapeake L by  3, L by 5 (-8)
Vs. Denver W by 11, L by 7 (+4)
Vs. Florida W by 12, L by 8 (+4)
Vs. New York L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Ohio W by 1, W by 4 (+5)

Remaining:
Vs. Rochester (8/04)

Deemer Class - 2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for Atlanta Blaze
And suddenly, Atlanta only had Class

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Atlanta is out of the 2016 MLL Playoff race, but you got to hand it to them. The Blaze really shook up the league when they beat Ohio this past weekend. Sure they beat them earlier in the year, but this is a very different Blaze team on a major skid. Now they have the chance to be the spoiler for the Rattlers on Thursday.

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Florida (3-10)

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Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta L by 12, W by 8 (-4)
Vs. Charlotte L by 2, L by 4 (-6)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 4, L by 1 (-5)
Vs. Denver W by 3, L by 4 (-1)
Vs. New York L by 6, W by 1 (-5)
Vs. Ohio L by 2, L by 4 (-6)
Vs. Rochester L by 5 (-5)

Remaining:
Vs. Boston (8/06)

Casey Powell - 2016 MLL Playoff Scenarios for Florida Launch
#22easy – CP will be missed!

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Florida really put a scare into the Rattlers, but ultimately wound up losing the game on a late run. Now they have the chance to go up to Boston and ruin the Cannons’ hopes. This will also be Casey Powell’s last MLL game, so they will absolutely be fighting until the end. It’s just kind of a bummer we won’t get to see him tear it up in a 2016 MLL Playoff game or two. You know he would!

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Last but not least, there are the four games this week. I’ve ranked them below based on how important I perceive them to be in the 2016 MLL Playoff race:

#1: Rochester vs. Atlanta on Thursday
Rochester is pretty much win and in. I have it first because they play on Thursday. That will add or relieve stress for the Saturday games based on how it goes. Will teams be playing for 3 playoff spots or 4?

#2: Charlotte vs. Chesapeake on Saturday
This game has more impacts on tiebreakers that just about anything else. The outcome of this game matter to almost everyone.

#3: New York vs. Ohio on Saturday
New York can seal their #1 seed here and Ohio can really mess up everything. What’s not to love?!!?

#4: Boston vs. Florida on Saturday
Not that I think this will be a bad game at all. On the contrary. This is just the least impactful on other outcomes at the moment. To Boston, it’s their season.

Now, go watch some lacrosse!