Polls are super fun. I want to be clear about that. It is FUN to talk about which teams deserve to sit where in the Top 20 2017 lacrosse poll, just like it is FUN to talk about other, perhaps more important, polls. However this is not exactly serious scientific business, as the polls (Coaches, Media, or, err… otherwise) are all pretty much meaningless, and quite often, completely incorrect.
For example, last year’s Preseason Media Poll had UNC at #7, while I myself put them at #8, being the east coast elitist (and moronic, don’t forget moronic) pollster that I am. The coaches had UNC at #6 behind Hop and Duke. None of these were bad votes or thoughts, and this was borne out when UNC only made the NCAAs as an unseeded at-large team. Still, they won when it counted, and now they are everyone’s number 1. So like I said, this is FUN, but far from scientific… so no matter what happens, don’t get too upset! Or do, because that’s a thing now.
When it comes to teams making the playoffs, it’s all about criteria and winning games. When it comes to being number 1 at the end of the season, it’s all about winning games, and already having met criteria for inclusion. Polls are not really part of that criteria, nor do they influence who wins games. So WHY do we do them? Because they are fun. Never forget that.
This year, I will not be alone in asking if any poll is serious, as our own Ryan Conwell has joined the Media Pollster fray. Thanks to the fine fellows over at IL for including another LAS member in their Media Poll. I guess some media really can work in a non-partisan way, and I promise we will do our bestest to be the least stupidest we can be.
Ryan is a brave man, and I know he will have just as much fun with this whole thing as I have, and I’m pretty sure he will also do a better job than I do, so rejoice as another lacrosse season is finally upon us. Need PROOF that Conwell will take this seriously, but not TOO seriously? Read his thoughts on how we voted, and will vote, moving forward. We’re all about transparency!
Ryan Conwell’s Inaugural Poll Address:
When it comes to preseason rankings, they need to be taken with a grain of salt. Also, that grain of salt needs to be big enough to be the equivalent of a nuclear bomb for an entire colony of slugs. I do not condone the execution of slugs by way of salt, but you get my point. It also goes without saying that I am by no means a lacrosse fortuneteller. If I were, the season would be very boring for me.
The great thing about media polls is that it helps sort out biases and lack of information across the group. Not everyone has an encyclopedic knowledge of how all 71 D1 programs are performing in day to day practices, what minor injuries are not being talked about, who left what program, etc. There are just so many factors for every team that can affect their performance. By spreading these votes across several people, we get a pretty good idea of which teams are expected to perform better than others next time they’re on the field.
I also do need to thank Inside Lacrosse for the opportunity to take part in the voting this season. We could debate qualifications all day, but I mean…they gave Connor a vote, and have you seen his picks? Yikes!
My methodology for this poll is going to be starting with who do I think has the best chance at winning a game TODAY. First game, no film, who do you got? My top four are not who I think will be in the final four, but it’s a starting point. This will be changing every single week and some teams will move more than others.
Ok, enough verbosity, it’s Preseason Poll time!
Preseason Top 20 2017 Lacrosse Poll
Here’s how we’re laying it out this year:
Rank | Media Poll Pick | Ryan Conwell Pick | Connor Wilson Pick – Comments via RC or CW
1 | UNC | UNC | UNC – RC: Now, I am not putting them here just because they won the championship and therefore are the top team by default. Winning absolutely helps, though! I don’t love who they lost to graduation, but it doesn’t separate them greatly from the next few teams on the list. They’re also Connor’s #1, so this is probably wrong. CW: going after me personally in post #1. I like it already, Senator Conwell! Also, I always rank last year’s champ as preseason #1, because I love being a pedant.
2 | Maryland | Denver | Maryland – RC: With so many returning players at every position on the field, it’s hard not to have the Pios at least this high on the board. Losing 3 of their top 5 scorers is certainly going to be felt, though. When I look at the prospect of Zach Miller not playing, I can’t help but think back to Denver’s game winning play when they won the semifinal before their 2015 championship. Against Notre Dame, when Wes Berg scored the game winner, it was actually on a broken play after they drew up a play to get Miller the last shot as a sophomore. To say he’s important in the coaching staff’s eyes in an understatement. CW: I have doubted Maryland far too often to stick with that strategy this year. Unlike some “very smart people” I am learning from my mistakes. Looks like my fellow pollsters have as well. I’m 2 for 2 in agreement with the overall media poll… has that ever happened before?
3 | Denver | Notre Dame | Notre Dame – RC: Speaking of Notre Dame, they hardly every start the season on a war path, blowing everyone out until they hit conference play. But, their first loss has only been by a goal each year until you hit a 2011 loss at Syracuse. The system team is always reloaded with talent and is ready to go from day one. Playing team USA was a nice helping of humility for anyone who may have been going into the season feeling a little too confident, as well. CW: What Conwell said!
4 | Notre Dame | Yale | Brown – RC: Oh Yale. The team that just keeps coming so close to being in the national mix and finals fours like Cornell and Princeton have been in the past. I want the Bulldogs to succeed so badly and am not ashamed to admit it. They’re talented, well coached, and motivated. They started last season on a tear and made heads turn around the country. We’ll see if they can do the same again this year. CW: Yes, Brown lost some stuff, yes they have a new coaching staff, yes, yes, yes. I get all that, and I don’t care. Sling the rock around, ball out, and score goals. I don’t think they’re going to miss a beat. I’ve been wrong before, prove me wrong Coach Daly, but also remember, NESCAC for life. That was a D3 joke, and I made it for the people. They think it’s hilarious.
5 | Loyola | Syracuse | Denver – RC: This team is now officially Jordan Evans’ responsibility. When you show up to Cuse and throw that 22 jersey on, being good isn’t good enough. The last time a player was in the position of leading an underperforming team and looking at their last season of wearing that Jersey was 2013 when JoJo Marasco took them to the finals. This team is so much more than Evans, though. Of all the players that are surrounding him in Orange, I will be shocked if everyone doesn’t know the name Scott Firman by the end of the year. CW: Could Denver be #1? Sure they could. All my top 10 teams probably could be in one universe or another, but we live in this universe, where this Connor thinks Denver is good around the five spot. I don’t think Denver is going to blow people out very often, but I do think they will win a lot of games. They’re not sexy, but they’re very, very good.
6 | Syracuse | Brown | Yale – RC: I suspect most people have Brown higher in their polls like Connor does. What they really have going for them is they found the PERFECT replacement for their head coach. Brown was already playing a Tufts style of lacrosse, so bringing in the Tufts coach made a ton of sense. That said, he’s still a different coach, and it’s still jumping from DI to DIII. That is too much variability for me right now to have them much higher than here, even with the reigning Tewaaraton winner on the field. CW: HA! Conwell actually had Brown higher than a lot of pollsters too. Fake news. Seriously though, let’s talk about Yale. What’s not to like? They keep having really good seasons and something is going on there. It’s called running an impressive program. I don’t think that comes to a halt in 2017.
7 | Yale | Maryland | Syracuse – RC: Oh dear, how did this happen? Like I said in the intro, this is about who will be there in game 1. Maryland lost huge chunks of starters to graduation. I would also be foolish insane to vote against them as a favorite to be in the final four in May. Maryland will be one of the best teams this year, but I think it will take a few game to get their legs under them. Opening against Navy will not be a treat. CW: Maryland vs Navy will be a treat, FOR THE FANS. Why don’t you care about the fans, Ryan? I love getting Ryan’s picks and then responding to them later, it makes me look so smart. Why is Cuse so low? I don’t know, they just are. I like Yale, ND, Maryland, and Denver better as control teams, and I like Brown and UNC better as scoring teams. 7 seemed good.
8 | Brown | Loyola | Loyola – RC: I felt pretty good about Loyola going into last year, and then Pat Spencer happened. 89 points as a freshman in the cut-throat Patriot League is just downright impressive. With him coming back to leads the Greyhounds, I feel great about them going into this year. CW: Yup, yup, and yup. Conwell said it, I just agreed.
9 | Johns Hopkins | Navy | Navy – RC: The military academies are without question the mentally toughest teams in the country. A friend of mine played against Navy in soccer back in college and hated it. In her words: “They’re robots. They’re all big, fast, strong, never get tired, and never give up”. When you take that mentality and throw in the talent this team possesses on top of it, that’s a dangerous combination for anyone else out there. CW: They don’t ever wear arm pads. Navy, so hot right now.
10 | Duke | Duke | Johns Hopkins – RC: Duke is an odd one to peg for me right now. They were supposed to be the redemption team last year after their first round exit following back to back championships. They just couldn’t get the consistency they needed. Now, they lose their Myles Jones initiated offense and will be forming a new identity. They’re one of the best coached teams out there and are loaded with talent. Anything short of a final four will be a disappointment for the Blue Devils. CW: Did Hop lose some studs to injury, etc? Yes. Will this force them to be more creative and pressing on O? I hope so! Of course I often say that, and I’m often wrong. Buying in to my own confirmation bias never works out well. Prove me wrong about my wrongness, Hop!
11 | Navy | Villanova | Duke – RC: Nova’s biggest problem is that they play in the Big East. Denver owns that league right now and Marquette was the Cinderella last year. This isn’t a 3-4 bid conference yet. The Wildcats are right there, though. Last year they only lost in OT to Harvard in their first game, and then dropped two to Marquette, one to Brown, and one to Denver. Talk about good losses. So for now, I’m putting them at 11. That also happens to be how many points Jake Froccaro will get in a game this season. CW: My friend described what it was like to play for Dino Sr at the ‘Stra, and I would love to play for John Danowski. He’ll get those boys going, I’m sure of it. Coaches gotta coach, players gotta play.
12 | Towson | Johns Hopkins | Army – RC: Honestly, this may even be a little high right now. Coming off two consecutive seven loss seasons, the Jays are badly in need of another big winning streak like their 2015 saw. The name of the team isn’t want has them this high, though. They still are loaded with some of the best recruits you can find and Petro knows a thing or two about the game of lacrosse. This is a team to watch very closely, though. CW: Army is not flashy, or all that highly regarded, but early on, I like them to physically dominate and enforce their will on opponents. The Army O has been opening up in years past, and if that continues, they could remain dangerous. Defense alone won’t cut it though.
13 | Albany | Penn State | Harvard – RC: Jeff Tambroni is building some great in State College. Their year ended with several very close losses, but they return some of their best players. It’s a recipe for success in a very difficult conference. Their out of conference schedule isn’t stellar, so winning right away is even more important. CW: Harvard keeps bringing in good classes, and looks poised to make a jump. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt here, but that might not last long.
14 | Penn State | Albany | Villanova – RC: Connor Fields is a monster and has shown that he can be the one that drives this offense. I want a big doubter last year, but he proved me wrong and I will happily admit that. Missing Blaze is why they are not higher in my list and honestly I thought of dropping them lower. Albany plays a high risk/high reward style the results in Blaze seeing a lot of shots every game. He was an outstanding goalie from the day he stepped onto the field in that purple jersey. I put a ton of stock in top level goalies, and that is carrying some weight here. CW: Nova seemed good here. Honestly, after my top 7 I have some doubts. After my top 11? It’s more like random suppressing fire.
15 | Virginia | Rutgers | Rutgers – RC: Rutgers is a team that I would not want to play this year. They had the NCAA door shut right in their face as they were adjusting their tie and ready to make a great impression on everyone else in the dance. Now they are going to be back with a big old chip on their shoulder. They are in a very similar spot as Penn State, so don’t be shocked to see those two keeping an eye on each other. The B1G should be a battle from start to finish. CW: People keep saying Rutgers is a lacrosse school, and since they definitely are NOT a football school, this might be true. I liked them a lot last year, and like them again in 2017. That’s some oft-missing consistency, sir! Yes, I am now calling myself “sir” in the third person. It works.
16 | Villanova | Army | Marquette – RC: All that stuff I said about Navy? Pretty much applies to Army, too. Cole Johnson is back and ready to lead this team through a brutal Patriot League schedule. Their out of conference schedule is no cakewalk, either. Some good with against Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Rutgers could get them into the NCAA tournament, even if they don’t win their league. CW: Is Marquette a flash in the pan or outlier? I have seen nothing to suggest that is the case. Golden Eagles rising.
17 | Air Force | Harvard | Air Force – RC: The Crimson have had a good few years, but not a great few years. They’ve also had their season ended by Yale in 4 of the last 5 years, because that rivalry really needed someone more added to it. Losing Devin Dwyer is going to be felt offensively, but I like the potential of Morgan Cheek taking over. CW: Air Force can run, gun, slow it down, and is developing a nice inside game to make up for their lack of superstar one on one players. If 2017 continues the 2016 trend, AFA could be dancing. I do have worries about them in net, but we’ll see. Fun fact – when I traveled to Colorado in 2000 with Wesleyan to play Colorado College, some of our team drove to Air Force for a campus tour, and got pulled over by Military Police. They were very nice, but evidently our weird pierced attackman driving the van looked suspicious. Ward Melville kids are kind of sketchy.
18 | Marquette | Marquette | Virginia – RC: I really debated having Marquette on here at all, but I believe in what Coach Amplo is doing out in Wisconsin. They lost some key players who were major parts of what they were able to accomplish a year ago. They still have a ton of talent coming back and are well coached, so I hope to see them rise in the coming weeks. CW: Virginia was terrible last year, at least for Virginia. They weren’t fun to watch, often played just below the level of their opponents, and were uninspiring at best. So I really should have put them higher this year. I don’t see a repeat of 2016 in the cards. That being said, they have a lot to prove. I believe they will do so early on, and often.
19 | Rutgers | Air Force | Penn – RC: I can’t lie, losing Doug Gouchoe between the pipes made me really reconsider having them on here. I also believe that the top team in the SoCon deserves a nod. Right now, it’s between them and Richmond, so for now they’re here. CW: Penn is young, but they have some guys who can step up and the Ivy is relatively open to a new 3rd best team. Penn could very well be that team.
20 | Richmond | Virginia | Penn State – RC: Call it ACC bias or whatever, but UVA should be in the top 20. Lars Tiffany is going to do some great things down in Charlottesville, but I don’t think it’s going to be like flipping on a switch and *bam* they’re 2016 Brown in the ACC. I’m excited to see what he puts together as theoretically the players recruited for a Starsia team should fit Tiffany’s style very well. CW: PSU is probably way too low at #20 for me, and both the Media Poll and Conwell agree with me that I’m probably wrong to have them here. At the same time, depth concerns me for Penn State still, and I’m always happy to be proven wrong. I can see their pre-game shirts now – Prove People Wrong: Connor Wilson said we’d be #20 in the preseason.
Others from Media Poll: Penn, OSU, Fairfield, Harvard, Army, Cornell, Providence, Bucknell, Quinnipiac, Hofstra, Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Bryant
Others from Ryan Conwell: I should also mention that I’m keeping a very close eye on Cornell, Ohio State, Providence, and BU. That doesn’t mean someone else can’t throw a great game together and get some consideration, but these teams are close. I can’t wait to actually get these games going!
Others from Connor Wilson: Albany, Towson, Bucknell – Of all these I like Albany and I like Bucknell, but since you’ve read this far, I’ll let you in on a secret. I didn’t include Towson in my top 20, so I could name them as my preseason darkhorse team of the year. I’m kidding, they’re really not a darkhorse at all. BUT, I do think they still have a lot to prove. They went 2-2 last year against end of season Top 20 teams, lost to Delaware, and won a game 4-2. Not 100% sold just yet, although I do LOVE their blue collar, no name approach. Maybe they’ll also make a pre-game shirt saying CW doesn’t love them, but I doubt it, because polls are meaningless, and my votes don’t mean much.
We hope you enjoyed this foray into the D1 lacrosse scene. If you laughed even once (at a joke or a dumb pick), we’ve served our purpose. Enjoy the 2017 season!
