Ivy League lacrosse has truly been in its bag this year. The top three teams—Cornell, Princeton, and Harvard—have all had national relevance throughout the season. The offenses have been high-flying and must-watch TV for all three of these squads. Despite these three teams being highly ranked, there do seem to be tiers between Cornell and Princeton, and Princeton and Harvard. However, the postseason typically brings out the best in Ivy League lacrosse, and we’ll have to play the games to know the outcomes. In the meantime, let’s take a look at each of these matchups and give some predictions.
#1 Cornell vs #4 Yale
(Friday, May 2nd @ 4:00pm)
There’s not a ton to say about Cornell that you don’t already know. The number one team in the country currently holds a 12-1 record, with their only loss coming against Penn State in overtime. Other than that, the team has been flawless. CJ Kirst has been on a tear this year and will look to cap that off with a national championship. The Big Red enters the Ivy League lacrosse tournament as the number one seed with a lot of confidence, knowing they can not only win the Ivy League but make it all the way to Memorial Day weekend.
The drop-off from Cornell to Yale is monumental. The Bulldogs currently hold a 5-7 record and barely squeaked their way into the Ivy League tournament with a 3-3 conference record. The team has struggled to find any real rhythm this year but has managed to win the games they were supposed to and lose the games they weren’t expected to win.
Looking at the box score alone, the first time Cornell and Yale faced each other this year was a very Ivy League game—lots of offense, not much defense. The 19-14 Cornell win was expected, but I don’t think many people anticipated Yale to put up this kind of fight. Yale seriously could have been in contention for the win if they hadn’t allowed Cornell to score seven in the first quarter, with the Bulldog offense only putting up one goal in the third quarter. Nothing jumps out on the stat sheet as both teams were neck-and-neck in shots, saves, clears, and face-offs. The real difference in this game came from CJ Kirst, who casually threw up 10 points on nine goals and one assist, paired with Ryan Goldstein, who also had 10 points, but with two goals and eight assists. Big players make big plays in big moments—and that’s exactly what happened here. Even though Yale put up a good fight, Cornell’s star athletes were the nail in the coffin.
When it comes to overall season numbers, Cornell easily takes the cake. The offense is the best in the country, averaging 15.8 goals per game, which is astonishing. Yale, on the other hand, is averaging a modest 12 goals per game, which trails in comparison to what Cornell has been able to do this year. The Big Red defense is serviceable, allowing close to 10 goals per game, which is acceptable when your offense is as high-flying as theirs. Yale, on the other hand, has one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 13.2 goals per game. Pair that with Cornell having a 57% face-off winning percentage compared to Yale’s 51%, and considering this is a playoff game, the writing may already be on the wall.
No surprises here, no upsets, no scares. The Cornell Big Red are built for May, and with all the little moments they’ve been building up to, I’m sure they won’t squander the opportunity.
Prediction: Cornell 18 – Yale 9
#2 Princeton vs #3 Harvard
(Friday, May 2nd @ 6:30pm)
Both Princeton and Harvard have been two of the most exciting teams to follow this year in college lacrosse. With nearly identical overall records, Princeton gets the edge, holding an 11-2 regular-season record compared to Harvard’s 10-3 year. Princeton’s one out-of-conference loss came against Maryland in late February, which has aged well considering the Terrapins’ recent success. Their only conference loss came against Cornell in a game where the Tigers didn’t play their best, which they certainly know.
Harvard’s resume would have been nearly identical had they not had an early season loss to Colgate in February. Losses like that are odd, especially when you look back on them in retrospect. Their two conference losses came against none other than Cornell and Princeton, with the Crimson putting up a pretty good fight against the Tigers in their first matchup.
The first Harvard-Princeton matchup had huge implications, as many assumed these two teams would be fighting for the number two seed in the Ivy League lacrosse tournament, which is exactly what happened. Princeton came out hot, ending the first quarter with a 5-1 lead, which helped them coast to the victory despite Harvard’s best effort. The game ended in a 13-11 victory for the Tigers, but there’s no denying that Harvard fought until the end. The main difference-maker was the goalkeeping, as Princeton was able to secure 17 saves compared to Harvard’s 12. However, it’s surprising that Princeton came out on top considering they lost the turnover battle and the clearing battle outright. The Tigers made up for this with excellent face-off play, winning 17 of 27 face-offs and dominating the ground ball battle by 10.
Both teams have had very interesting years when you look at the numbers. And in very much an Ivy League fashion, the offenses have been incredible. Harvard gets the edge in scoring, ranking in the top three with an average of 14.4 goals per game, while Princeton isn’t too far behind at 12.9. These are elite offenses that no one will want to face in the postseason. Defense, on the other hand, has been a different story. Princeton’s defense has been solid enough to get the job done, averaging 9.7 goals per game. Harvard, however, is allowing a whopping 12 goals per game. The scoring differential between both teams is similar, but my confidence lies with the team that has proven they can make a stop when needed, which, at the end of the day, is more important than putting up high numbers. One of the funniest comparisons I’ve seen this year is the face-off stats. Princeton is averaging a 43% face-off win percentage on the year, with Harvard’s being even lower at 40%. These are two of the worst face-off teams in the country with historically bad numbers.
While Harvard’s Ivy League lacrosse storyline has been fun to watch all year and their offense has been very consistent, that defense is going to hurt them in the postseason. No team can make a deep run with a defense that is allowing 12 goals per game. I’ll bet my money on Princeton’s defense, which has at least been middle-of-the-pack and can work with that when paired with an elite offense.
Prediction: Princeton 16 – Harvard 12
