Hooray, the MLL Playoff Picture is clearing up! We avoided the dreaded “let’s go into the final weekend without knowing anything about who is in the playoffs or not” scenario like we had a year ago. Three spots are clinched, but the order is still being determined. Also, that fourth spot is very much in play.
So, let’s take a look at how things can shake out this weekend!!
MLL Playoff Picture: Final Weekend
| Seed | Team | Wins | Losses | Win % | Wins over | Losses to | Left | Streak |
| 1 | Denver | 9 | 4 | .692 | CHAx2, NYx2, FL, BOS,ATL, OH,CHE | ROCx2, BOS,OH | CHE | +1 |
| 2 | Ohio | 9 | 4 | .692 | ATL, CHA, FL, CHEx2, BOSx2,DEN,NY | ROC, CHA,NY, DEN | ROC | -3 |
| 3 | Florida | 8 | 6 | .571 | ROCx2, NYx2, ATL,CHE,CHA,BOS | BOS, DEN, OH, CHA, ATL,CHE | +3 | |
| 4 | Rochester | 7 | 6 | .538 | OH, BOSx2, DENx2, CHE,ATL | FLx2, CHA, NY, ATL, CHE | OH | +3 |
| 5 | New York | 6 | 7 | .462 | CHE, ATL, ROC ,OH,CHA, BOS | DENx2, BOS, FLx2,ATL,OH | CHA | -1 |
| 6 | Chesapeake | 6 | 7 | .462 | BOS, CHA, ATLx2, ROC, FL | NY, OHx2, ROC, CHA,FL,DEN | DEN | -1 |
| 7 | Charlotte | 6 | 7 | .462 | ROC, OH, ATL, CHE, FL,BOS | DENx2, OH, CHE, ATL, NY,FL | NY | +1 |
| 8 | Atlanta | 5 | 8 | .385 | BOS, CHA, ROC, FL,NY | OH, NY, CHEx2, CHA, FL, DEN,ROC | BOS | -2 |
| 9 | Boston | 3 | 10 | .231 | FL, NY, DEN | ATL, CHE, ROCx2, DEN, OHx2, NY,CHA,FL | ATL | -5 |
Who Is IN????
Right now, we know the top three seeds, but not the order. Florida is definitely the number three seed. Their season is over at 8-6, so they cannot reach the nine wins of Ohio or Denver. Not that it would matter, since they lost to both of those teams. Behind them is Rochester, the only team who can reach eight wins as well. Florida beat the Rattlers twice, so they win that tiebreaker. Since nobody else can match their eight wins: say hello to the third seed.
Ohio and Denver are still battling for order in those top two seeds. Even though they split their meetings this season, each gaining a win, Denver has the edge on points, so will be the top seed in the event they both wind up with either 10 or 9 wins. A win by Denver makes them the top seed, facing whoever winds up in fourth. A win by Ohio and a loss by Denver puts Ohio on top and has Denver hosting Florida. A loss by Ohio or a win by Ohio will have the Machine hosting the Launch.
So, to put it more simply:
- Denver or Ohio (Denver #1 with a win OR both lose)
- Denver or Ohio (Denver #2 with a loss AND Ohio win)
- Florida
Photo Credit: Brett Davis / MLL
Who’s Up Next?
Next in line are the Rattlers, Charlotte, and New York. Even though Chesapeake has the same record as New York and Charlotte, they are eliminated. More on that later. The Rattlers have the most straightforward solution. If they win their game against Ohio, they are the fourth seed in the playoffs. If they lose, they are out and their spot goes to either New York or Charlotte. At the exact same time Rochester plays Ohio for that spot, the Lizards and Hounds are playing, so they will not know what is happening until the game is over. Essentially, they are going to treat it like a playoff game under the premise that a Rochester loss means one of them gets that fourth spot. Let’s try to break this apart to see how it all works out, and why:
If Rochester wins, they are the only team left with eight wins, behind Florida. New York Chesapeake, and Charlotte can all be seven win teams at best. If Rochester loses and becomes a seven win team, they are then entered into a a tiebreaker with New York or Charlotte, and maybe Chesapeake. Quick reminder of tiebreaking rules: the record among the tied teams is compared, only counting games against each other. Best winning percentage wins. If that’s a tie between all teams, their overall win margin is compared. If only two teams are tied after the initial record comparison, they move to the head to head tiebreaker of direct results, direct margin, then overall margin.
So, here is what the various seven win scenarios look like for that fourth spot, – with teams tied at seven wins:
| Teams | Charlotte | Chesapeake | New York | Rochester | Result |
| Roc-Che-Cha | 2-1 | 2-2 | N/A | 1-2 | Charlotte 4th, Chesapeake 5th, Rochester 6th |
| Roc-Che-NY | N/A | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-2 | New York 4th, Chesapeake 5th, Rochester 6th |
| Roc-Cha | 1-0 | N/A | N/A | 0-1 | Charlotte 4th, Rochester 5th |
| Roc-NY | N/A | N/A | 1-0 | 0-1 | New York 4th, Rochester 5th |
| Che-NY | N/A | 0-1 | 1-0 | N/A | New York 5th, Chesapeake 6th |
| Che-Cha* | 1-1 | 1-1 | N/A | N/A | TBD, based on overall margin |
What about the rest?
When determining who is in playoffs, it is easy to forget about the rest of the teams out there and where they can fall. For spots 5-8, a lot can happen. We know that Boston will finish the season in the 9th spot. They can not jump Atlanta, so are there no matter what. When jockeying for fifth, almost everyone else in the mix, except for Atlanta. But, Atlanta can still find a way out of that 8th spot. If they win their game against Boston, they will hit six wins. That will put them in contention with whoever loses from the seven win scenarios above.
Here are what the six win scenarios look like, with teams tied at six wins:
| Teams | Atlanta | Charlotte | Chesapeake | New York | Result |
| Che-NY | N/A | N/A | 0-1 | 1-0 | New York 6th, Chesapeake 7th |
| Che-Cha* | N/A | 1-1 | 1-1 | N/A | TBD, based on overall margin |
| Atl-Che-NY | 1-3 | N/A | 2-1 | 2-1 | New York 6th, Chesapeake 7th, Atlanta 8th |
| Atl-Che-Cha | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3-1 | N/A | Chesapeake 6th, Charlotte 7th, Atlanta 8th |
| Atl-NY* | 1-1 | N/A | N/A | 1-1 | Atlanta 7th, New York 8th |
| Atl-Cha | 1-1 | 1-1 | N/A | N/A | Charlotte 7th, Atlanta 8th |
| NY | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | New York 7th, Atlanta 8th |
| Cha | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Charlotte 7th, Atlanta 8th |
*Some of those require a little more explanation.
In the Chesapeake/Charlotte head to head, they split their regular season meetings are were even in head to head points. So, to determine who wins, out, you need their overall margins. Charlotte is currently -3 while Chesapeake is +3. Since this requires both of them to lose, we would need to see who lost by the most and add those totals in. If they tied from there, things get even stranger. In the seven win scenario lost, both of them would be required to win. So again, we can not determine who is where until we know those scores. But, since we are not dealing with a playoff spot, I’m not dealing with it right now.
For Atlanta versus Charlotte, things are more clear cut. They split their head to head meetings, but Charlotte has the advantage on points given their six point win to avenge a one point loss. Atlanta and New York on the other hand, are 1-1 against each other and even in points. Atlanta’s total point margin is at -6 while New York’s is -17. Since Atlanta needs to win to make this happen, they will have a positive number added to their -6, while New York’s loss will make their -17 even worse. Clear as mud? Cool.
The Dust Settling
Rochester controls their own fate, which is great for the Rattlers. New York and Ohio both play each other, which is a great setup for a final game.
What amazes me most about all of this is how New York can finish anywhere from 4th to 8th depending on the results of this weekend’s game.
If Denver beats Chesapeake on Thursday, we will know three things. Denver will be the top seed, while Atlanta will be the 8th place team, and Ohio will host Florida.
If Denver loses, we go into the Saturday games full of question marks. The first game between Boston and Atlanta will only settle on if Atlanta locks up that 8th spot or needs to wait and see how New York finishes.
So there you have it, MLL playoff spots and finishes literally coming down to the last day of action. Not shocking at all.
