syracuse albany 2016 D1 bracket
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NCAA D1 Bracket Analysis – Rundown Style

NCAA D1 Bracket Analysis is coming at you hot and heavy, as only the Rundown style can deliver! I’m looking at each of the first round match ups (not the play-in games, although those are sort of covered too) and trying to predict upsets or weird results, and find any anomalies that truly stand out.

Game by Game D1 Bracket Analysis

Let us go through these games one by one, with a fine internet comb.

d1 bracket lacrosse

Maryland Vs Quinnipiac or Hartford

Here’s a quick fact: Quinnipiac or Hartford will play Maryland. Mind blowing, right? Here’s how BOTH teams match up with the Terps:

Category #1 Maryland Quinnipiac/Hartford
Record 14-2 11-3/11-6
Home/Away 6-0 Home Qu: 6-2H;5-1A/7-2A
Goals For 11.13 10.36/10.94
Goals Against 7.88 (#8) 8.36/9.94
Faceoff % .527 .547/.693(#1)
Goalie Rank #17 #3/#35

Head to Head: N/A for Maryland. Quinnipiac defeated Hartford in the regular season.

Common Foes: Maryland and Hartford have both played Albany. Maryland won by 3, Hartford lost by 4 in one game, won in overtime in the other.

Quick Take: Quinnipiac hosts Hartford in the play-in game. Quinnipiac won that game in overtime earlier this year at Hartford. I actually like Hartford to take the play-in game since they’re a little more battle tested. In a game where Maryland plays like they should play, they’ll win over either team. If they come out slow and it turns into a possession battle, an upset is possible. Hartford has very good face off work, which can shift a game.

Upset Grade: Unlikely

Maryland Vs Loyola 2016 MLL Draft
Photo Credit: Craig Chase

Denver Vs Towson or Hobart

Category #2 Denver Towson/Hobart
Record 13-2 14-2/10-6
Home/Away 6-1 Home Tow: 10-1H;4-1A/5-2
Goals For 13.87 (#2) 10.69/9.5
Goals Against 9.07 7.13(#2)/9.63
Faceoff % .660 (#3) .513/.558
Goalie Rank #28 #12/#26

Head to Head: N/A all around

Common Foes: there are plenty!

Georgetown: Denver 13pt W, Hobart 1pt W, Towson 3pt W
Penn State: Denver 5pt L, Hobart 5pt L
Ohio State: Denver 9 pt W, Towson 1pt OT W
Binghamton: Towson 9pt W, Hobart 6pt W
Mount St. Mary’s: Hobart 6pt W, Towson 4pt W

Quick Take: The Towson/Hobart game might actually be a terrific matchup. They play their common opponents pretty similarly, even though Towson’s defense is one of the best in the country. I don’t see the winner doing anything against Denver, though. This is a really tough draw for Towson. I would have liked their chances against many teams, but Hobart will be a difficult team to knock off first, and I do not like how they matchup with Denver at all. Hobart has been on fire as of late, and Denver is Denver.

Upset Grade: Very Low

towson vs loyola
Photo Credit: Craig Chase

Notre Dame Vs Air Force

Category #3 Notre Dame Air Force
Record 10-3 15-2
Home/Away 6-1 Home 8-1 Away
Goals For 10.85 10.24
Goals Against 7.69 (#5) 7.29 (#3)
Faceoff % .493 .524
Goalie Rank #6 #11

Head to Head: N/A

Common Foes:

Duke: ND 2ptW, 1ptL ;AF 1pt W
Denver: Both 1pt L
Detroit: ND 9pt W; AF 2pt W

Quick Take: Despite a terrific road record, most of Air Force’s road wins are very close. Both of these teams also have played a trio of D schools and were pretty close in both Denver and Duke contests. They both have great defenses, great goalies, and are close in offense over the season. Notre Dame should win this, but nobody should overlook this one, and given their history in May, they won’t.

Upset Grade: Possible

notre dame may lacrosse bagpipes earth shattering
Photo Credit: Ryan Conwell

Yale vs Navy

Category #4 Yale Navy
Record 13-2 10-4
Home/Away 6-1 Home 3-2 Away
Goals For 12.53 (#10) 9.64
Goals Against 7.80 (#6) 6.93 (#1)
Faceoff % .587 .500
Goalie Rank #51 #13

Head to Head: N/A

Common Foes:

Maryland: Yale 3pt W, Navy 5 pt L

Quick Take: Get ready for a defensive battle in this one. Yale has more firepower, especially if ben Reeves gets going, but Navy does carry the best defense in the country. Yale plays everything close and almost always wins close games. Navy is a little more spread out, but they absolutely have a shot in this one.

Upset Grade: Possible

Boston University BU lacrosse navy
Photo Credit: Ryan Conwell

Brown vs Johns Hopkins

Category #5 Brown Johns Hopkins
Record 14-2 8-6
Home/Away 6-2 Home 4-3 Away
Goals For 16.75 (#1) 12.64 (#9)
Goals Against 8.63 11.21
Faceoff % .665 (#2) .549
Goalie Rank #1 #47

Head to Head: N/A

Common Foes:

Michigan: Brown 14pt W; Hop 6pt W
Princeton: Brown 11pt W; Hop 10 pt W

Quick Take: If this goes down the way things on paper say it should, Brown will absolutely blow Hopkins out of the water and bury them by a ton of goals. Hopkins has the offense to keep up, but I worry about the Jays on defense. If either end of the field is lackluster for Hop, it could be a long day.

Upset Grade: Possible, but less likely

d1 bracket loyola hopkins charles street rivalry
Photo Credit: Craig Chase

Marquette Vs North Carolina

Category #6 Marquette North Carolina
Record 11-4 8-6
Home/Away 5-0 Home 3-3 Away
Goals For 9.33 12.86 (#8)
Goals Against 8.00 (#10) 10.36
Faceoff % .565 .569
Goalie Rank Unranked #43

Head to Head: N/A

Common Foes:

Notre Dame: Marquette 1pt L; UNC 2pt W
Duke: Marquette 15pt L; UNC 1 pt W
Denver: Marquette 3pt L, 1pt W; UNC 1pt L
Richmond: Marquette 5pt W; UNC 9pt W

Quick Take: Another pat on the back to the committee for setting up this one. It’s a great offense against a great defense, they have several common opponents, and nearly identical faceoff stats. I really like Marquette’s record at home. This game will come down to which UNC team shows up, though. We know Marquette will not come out flat. They are hosting their first NCAA game in program history.

Upset Grade: Highly Possible

University of North Carolina Lacrosse UNC Tar Heels 2016 NCAA
Photo Credit: Rien Zabor

Loyola Vs Duke

Category #7 Loyola Duke
Record 12-3 11-7
Home/Away 5-2 Home 4-1 Away
Goals For 10.53 13.5 (#4)
Goals Against 7.87 (#7) 9.61
Faceoff % .529 .588 (#10)
Goalie Rank Unranked #30

Head to Head: Duke won by 9

Common Foes:

Virginia: Loyola 7pt W;  Duke 6pt W
Lehigh: Loyola 1pt W;  Duke 2pt W
Georgetown: Loyola 3pt W; Duke 14pt W

Quick Take: Duke could lose this game and I would not be shocked. They could make it to the final and I still wouldn’t be shocked. I largely just don’t know what to expect from either of these teams, to be honest. No matter what, this should be a great game! According to the above comparison, Duke looks like the favorite to be honest, but Loyola is also firing on all cylinders right now. And right now is what matters.

Upset Grade: Ridiculously High

love_mens_lacrosse best top 20 d1 bracket
Photo Credit: Craig Chase

Syracuse Vs Albany

Category #8 Syracuse Albany
Record 11-4 12-3
Home/Away 7-1 Home 6-2 Away
Goals For 12.93 (#7) 13.20 (#6)
Goals Against 8.47 10.00
Faceoff % .635 (#4) .495
Goalie Rank Unranked #7

Head to Head: Syracuse won by 9

Common Foes:

Binghamton: Cuse 8pt W; Albany 4pt W
Cornell: Cuse 1pt L; Albany 4pt W
Siena: Cuse 13pt W; Albany 9pt W

Quick Take: Syracuse won the first meeting handily, but that was also Albany’s first game of the year. Even with that qualifier, Syracuse should win this game. Albany’s style is to run as fast as they can while goalie Blaze Riorden makes a ton of saves. A big night from him may quiet the Orange considerably. Even so, Syracuse has been looking like Cuse teams of old with how much they attack the goal and work in transition.

Upset Grade: Possible, but less likely

syracuse albany 2016
Photo Credit: Jeff Melnik