Statistical mastermind Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg are back with the ‘PLL BTN By The Numbers‘ report! This new PLL 2019 season analytics report includes offensive efficiency metrics, output charts, key insights and players to watch as we take a look at the PLL statistical totals through the entire PLL 2019 season. We hope you enjoy!
PLL 2019 Season BTN
A shooting analytic originally designed by Patrick McEwen, that counts shots on a goal that didn’t go in as a loss of possession and assumes league average on the probability you retain possession on off cage shots. We have been tracking all off-cage shots but I generally mark it as a save when the goalie catches it even if it looks off cage because it has the value of a save from a functional standpoint. Still our league average checked out to be pretty similar to the one used originally by McEwen so it shouldn’t alter the numbers. Here is the top 25 so far in Goals Added:
On each goal we tracked the person who dodged to create it. Here are the players who have created the most points based on their dodges; if your dodge created a two pointer you get two points for the dodge, here’s the league rankings:
We converted face off wins to goals estimating the value of a possession at .3.
We tracked how many goals each teams goaltender prevented based on whether shots taken near the crease, as 2’s or long 1’s. Unfortunately, we weren’t able to individualize this, but you know who was in cage most of the time. This metric is meant to indicate whether or not it is the Goalie or the defense coming up big.
*Percentage of goalie usage based on regular season numbers*
Team Defense Ratings
This is the goals against average each defense would have if their goalie played average.
On each shot we also tracked:
- The region where shot was taken
- Result of the shot.
- Whether a short stick or a long stick is guarding the dodger
- The type of Dodge (if any) that created the space (The last dodge that happened)
(Left and right are relative to offense)
A sample of the data is shown below.
No metric is perfect, we want you guys to know what isn’t accounted for so you can combine it with the eye test and make informed decisions
- We don’t track turnovers, we focus solely on scoring opportunities
- Dodging Gray Areas- Some dodges, mainly ones with roll backs or redodges can be hard to track. We do our best to define everything, but every week I think about a dodge I classified as one thing that could be another thing.
- Human Error/Data entry
Each metric is the points above or below average ex +.05= 5% better than average. We base our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3. Average is compared to an average shot in general in the league factoring in possession retainment
- Without Schreiber the Archers other midfielders stepped it up. Notice how much Ambler rose in goals created
- In spite of missing last week Schreiber is still in the top ten in goals created
- Stephen Kelly has risen dramatically, but a lot of it has been cleaning up on teams missing their primary FO Athlete
- Besides the Whipsnakes the Archers are the only team to have an above average defense and goalie play.
- Will Manny rose dramatically because of his massive seven goal effort to close the season.
- In spite of Schreiber being one of the best dodging middies out there, the Archers shot 5% below an average shot when they initiated from up top.
Offseason Point of Emphasis: The Archers could use another initiator at either attack or midfield. Manny and Holman are best used as set shooters and someone besides Schreiber and Cuccinello is needed to help create, someone to spark transition ideally Also another face off guy would be helpful.
- Baptiste is the real MVP in our eyes, Law is an overlooked candidate for attackmen of the year
- Brown is a below average shooter in goals added, but we believe that’s because he is shooting primarily long ones. Meanwhile Law leads the league in Goals Added because he is taking shots on the crease.
- Overall the Atlas are better off taking the alley then going topside, and having more success on the wing.
- Paul Rabil is in the bottom fifteen in goals added.
- Connor Buczek went from the bottom fifteen in goals added to the top fifteen because of his 9 point effort, before the bye week
- People say the Atlas are stacked at attack but Kieran Mcardle had a disappointing season creating 9 goals and shooting -1.99 n goals added
- A two point shot against the Atlas defense was 9% above an average shot they need to do a better job of closing out
Offseason Point of Emphasis: The Atlas defense is their weakness, allowing an adjusted 13 goals with our analytic that assumes average goalie play
- While the Chaos’s 2’s and crease shooting is still good they have dropped significantly in the playoffs
- The Chaos did a very good job taking away topside this year
- While he is a great set up man, Jones has been the least efficient shooter for the Chaos add -3.98 goals
- Blaze Riorden deserved goalie of the year saving his team over ten goals when factoring in where the shots came from
- While the Chaos’s defense created offense they were the weakness of the team as a whole, our data shows they were bailed out by Riorden quite a bit.
- The Chaos benefitted a lot from two pointers mad, but they also defended the arc well a two point shot against Chaos was 12% below an average shot
Offseason Point of Emphasis: Defense. If Blaze had performed average the Chaos would’ve given up 13.84 points per game. The offense is stacked, no doubt they have to shore up their poles.
- The Chrome attack duo of Wolf and Guterding has created 49 points off dodges. No other duo of attackmen is within ten
- Guterding and Crotty are the only two players in the top ten in both goals added and goals created
- The Chrome have the worst two point defense in the league allowing over .4 per shot
- John Galloway’s -15.91 goals prevented is the most significantly below average metric we saw. The runners on this team aren’t the problem, especially when you look at how close these games are.
- Thanks to Wolf and Guterding the Chrome are at their best when they initiate from X
- The Chrome shoot eleven percent below an average shot when they go underneath on the wing
Offseason Point of Emphasis: Goalie. John Galloway has had a great career, but he held the Chrome back quite a bit this season.
- Kyle Harrison is the least efficient shooter in the league nearly every week, yet he still has a prominent role on the team. Replace him with an average midfielder and it would make a huge difference
- The Redwoods offense has improved dramatically at two pointers during the playoffs. A Redwoods two pointer is still 9% worse than an average shot, but still
- We believe Ryder Garnsey deserved rookie of the year of Tim Troutner. Troutner was -2.71 in our goals prevented (at least it was pretty much him) and Garnsey had a great season creating 13 goals and shooting 3.34 goals above average in goals added.
- Salcido is low in goals added, but is a great dodger. If we had to pick one player in the league that would benefit from an invert it’d be him
- When people tried to initiate from the top and go topside against the Redwoods they shot 13% below average
- The Redwoods and the Archers boasted the strongest defenses in the league this year especially when you adjust for goaltending the Redwoods are playing great defense
Offseason Point of Emphasis: Attack. The offense improved significantly once Henningburg was switched to midfield. Garnsey proved a sufficient creator, but they could benefit from better set shooters for him to feed to. Offensive midfield is also a position the Redwoods could shore up, but don’t you dare touch that defense.
- Chanenchuk has to be one of the most underrated players in the league 7.50 goals added and 12 points created. He stretches the defense and forces longer slides. We believe he should’ve been at least nominated for midfielder of the year.
- The Whipsnakes defense is most vulnerable when they get attacked from the top. They face a Redwoods team that is best when they initiate from up top
- Locasio and Snider are the least efficient shooters for the Whipsnakes
- The Whipsnakes won the championship by being the most all around solid team. No glaring weakness, above average goaltending, defense, an MVP at attack and the best two point shooter in the league at midfield, and the second best face off guy in the league. A well-deserved ring for them.
Offseason Point of Emphasis: Attack. This is being really nit picky, but that’s because their aren’t a lot of holes to shore up on this team, but a fourth attackmen that is a set shooter could be an asset and allow Connor Kelly to run more midfield. They could literally keep the roster the same and still repeat, not a lot of weaknesses.