Statistical mastermind Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg are back with the ‘PLL BTN By The Numbers‘ Week 9 report! This new PLL analytics report includes offensive efficiency metrics, output charts, key insights, and players to watch as we approach the playoffs. We hope you enjoy!
PLL Analytics – Week 9
Top 10 Rankings (As of 8.23.2019)
A shooting analytic originally designed by Patrick McEwen, that counts shots on a goal that didn’t go in as a loss of possession and assumes league average on the probability you retain possession on off cage shots. We have been tracking all off cage shots but I generally mark it as a save when the goalie catches it even if it looks of cage because it has the value of a save from a functional standpoint. Still our league average checked out to be pretty similar to the one used originally by McEwen so it shouldn’t alter the numbers. Here is the top ten in goals added, the shooters that add the most to their team while using the least possessions:
Here are the least efficient players in the league the players that use the most possessions and get the least output:
On each goal we tracked the person who dodged to create it. Here are the players who have created the most points based on their dodges; if your dodge created a two pointer you get two points for the dodge, here’s the top ten:
We converted face off wins to goals estimating the value of a possession at .3
On each shot we also tracked:
- The region where shot was taken
- Result of the shot.
- Whether a short stick or a long stick is guarding the dodger
- The type of Dodge (if any) that created the space (The last dodge that happened)
A sample of the data is shown below.(Left and right are relative to offense)
No metric is perfect, we want you guys to know what isn’t accounted for so you can combine it with the eye test and make informed decisions
- We don’t track turnovers, we focus solely on scoring opportunities
- Dodging Gray Areas- Some dodges, mainly ones with roll backs or redodges can be hard to track. We do our best to define everything, but every week I think about a dodge I classified as one thing that could be another thing.
- Human Error/Data entry
Key Insights & Players To Watch
Each metric is the points above or below average ex +.05= 5% better than average. We base our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3. Average is compared to an average shot in general in the league factoring in possession retainment
Insights on Archers LC
- The Archers are your definition of an average PLL team with a 4-5 record and a close to average goal differential.
- Kevin Rice has been the limiting factor in the Archers attack in our goals added metric Rice has taken more goals away with wasted possessions than Manny and Holman have created combined. Benching him for Cuccinello has been a good decision
- The Archers fare better when they attack from the wing as opposed to up top.
- The defense of the Archers is sound, they just need more elite threats besides Holman and Schreiber
Key Player vs. Whipsnakes – M. Holman
Holman has had a phenomenal season and has been very efficient, however he was held in check last week. In a critical game he needs to show up.
Insights on Atlas LC
- The Atlas are getting ROASTED behind the two-point arc, in the PLL defense is about more than defending the crease. Allowing .38 points per shot
- If you estimate the value of a possession as .3 Baptiste has added over eleven goals to the Atlas. Significantly more than any shooter.
- Brown is a below average shooter in goals added, but we believe that’s because he is shooting primarily long ones. Meanwhile Law leads the league in Goals Added because he is taking shots in the crease
- Overall the Atlas are better off taking the alley then going topside.
Key Player vs. Chaos- T. Baptiste
The Atlas are arguably the weakest team outside of their FOGO, and will need the extra possessions to remain competitive. We believe Baptiste is the current MVP of the league, because the quantity of possessions. Yes every week he is the key player, but especially this week against the best offense in the league
Insights on Chaos LC
- The Chaos have the most dominant offense, and they are making great use of the most valuable shots in the game (2’s and crease). Note how far above average those both are.
- The talent on this offense extends beyond, their attack and even beyond their short sticks as a whole. Jarrod Neumann is currently adding the second most goals to his team in our Goals Added stat, and Matt Rees is in the top ten as well.
- The Chaos are doing better when they take the alley then when they go top, this is common.
Key Player vs. Atlas- J. Byrne
Byrne is proving to be incredibly efficient. They don’t have a ton to play for, but having him back in the lineup is quite the advantage.
Insights on Chrome LC
- I have no statistical way to prove this, but Chrome must be the best team to go winless through the first half of their season in any professional sport. They are not far behind the other five teams in the league. They have a zero-goal differential.
- The Chrome are getting burned behind the arc. A two-point shot against Chrome is 21% better than average! Averaging .46 points per shot.
- The Chrome are not without scorers despite their record. Guterding, Manley, Ranagan, and MacIntosh, and Crotty are shooting a goal above average in goals added. Note that Wolf is in the bottom ten in goals added
- The Chrome are creating a lot of goals off the dodge. Guterding is leading the league in points created by the dodge. Crotty, Wolf and Ranagan are not far behind.
Key Player vs. Redwoods- J. Wolf
Jordan Wolf may not be shooting well this year, but he’s a top five dodger in the league no question. He is the Chrome’s most effective option when creating goals
Insights on Redwoods LC
- The Redwoods have not utilized the shorter two-point line at all. A Redwoods two pointer is 0.20 points per shot below average. This week in a must win game they face a team that can’t defend well against the arc
- The Redwoods are doing better when they dodge from the top than anywhere else. One of the few teams to fair better when they dodge from the top then the wing. The problem with dodging from the top is you give yourself a long one if no one slides. This could explain why so many Redwoods players are near the bottom of our goals added.
Key Player vs. Chrome – J. Heningburg
This is a must win game for the Redwoods, Heningburg has proven to be the one player on this offense who can truly take over.
Insights on Whipsnakes LC
- In the same sense that the Chrome aren’t that much worse than the other teams. The Whipsnakes aren’t that much better than average. The parity in this league is nuts
- The Whipsnakes are one of the few teams doing better defending dodges on the wing as opposed to up top
- The Whipsnakes are most vulnerable when defending dodges from the top. Look for Schreiber to take advantage this week.
Key Player vs. Archers – M.Chanenchuk
The Archers have a very good defense, and what better way to counter that than the league leader in two-point attempts, there to stretch out the defense.