Editor’s Note: Sports analytics pioneer Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg put their heads together to create advanced metrics for the field game. Their first full-season test subject: the PLL. Because, well, to them, standard stats are boring.
Getting everything put together and polished for Week 1 of the PLL season took a bit more labor and focus than anticipated, but now we have our formulas set for the year. We hope that you can find value in this type of research, a system that’s been applied in other sports for decades. The goal is to show what’s working, and what isn’t, on the field for a league you can easily get access to. From there, we can apply our formulas to any league, any team, anywhere.
PLL Week 1 Results – Boston
- Archers 13, Chrome 12 (OT)
- Whipsnakes 15, Chaos 14 (OT)
- Redwoods 11, Atlas 9
PLL Week 2 Schedule – New York
- Chrome vs Whipsnakes – Saturday, 1 P.M. on NBCSN
- Archers vs Redwoods – Saturday, 4 P.M. on NBCSN
- Atlas vs Chaos – Sunday, 2 P.M. on NBC
What We Look For In The PLL
On each shot we tracked:
- The “zone” where a shot was taken
- Result of the shot
- Whether a short stick or a long stick was guarding the shooter
- The type of dodge (if any) to create shot
Zones: 1-3 extend from the crease to about 8 yards out. 4-6 fill to the 2-point line. 7 is anything beyond the arc.
Possible Results: Goal, Save, Off-Cage, Botched Backup, 2 Pointer
SS or LS: Short-stick or long-stick
Scoring Opportunities: Alley – a north-south dodge away from the middle; Top – a north-south dodge from the topside; Wing-top – a high east-west dodge going topside; Wing-alley – a low east-west dodge going underneath; Power Play – man-up opportunity; Feed – No dodge, but ball movement occurred; X – Dodge from behind the goal.
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Each metric shows the points above or below average, which is 0. Ex: if a score reads “+.05” than the team is 5% better than average in that category. We base all of our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3.
Also note, a “+” on defense is a bad thing, because you’re allowing points.
Atlas
Offense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -34% |
2 | 12% |
3 | -25% |
4 | -9% |
5 | -28% |
6 | -11% |
7 | 22% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | -31% |
Feed | -30% |
Power Play | -20% |
Other | -34% |
Top | -38% |
Wing-alley | -38% |
Wing-top | -38% |
X | -31% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | -1% |
Dodge on SS | -11% |
Dodge on LS | -22% |
Defense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -11% |
2 | 13% |
3 | -29% |
4 | -15% |
5 | -15% |
6 | -10% |
7 | -16% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | 5% |
Feed | -9% |
Power Play | 12% |
Other | -3% |
Top | 5% |
Wing-alley | -8% |
Wing-top | -32% |
X | -27% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | -5% |
Dodge on SS | -2% |
Dodge on LS | -25% |
Archers
Offense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -14% |
2 | 37% |
3 | 16% |
4 | 4% |
5 | 3% |
6 | -1% |
7 | 66% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | 27% |
Feed | 17% |
Power Play | 62% |
Other | 12% |
Top | -3% |
Wing-alley | -38% |
Wing-top | 62% |
X | 13% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | 21% |
Dodge on SS | 18% |
Dodge on LS | -6% |
Defense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -16% |
2 | 11% |
3 | 22% |
4 | -21% |
5 | -11% |
6 | 39% |
7 | -21% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | -2% |
Feed | -14% |
Power Play | N/A |
Other | -26% |
Top | -8% |
Wing-alley | -8% |
Wing-top | -28% |
X | 15% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | 0% |
Dodge on SS | 20% |
Dodge on LS | -16% |
Chaos
Offense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -34% |
2 | 28% |
3 | -16% |
4 | -8% |
5 | -5% |
6 | 25% |
7 | -2% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | 11% |
Feed | -3% |
Power Play | -1% |
Other | 26% |
Top | 16% |
Wing-alley | 66% |
Wing-top | 16% |
X | -25% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | 3% |
Dodge on SS | 18% |
Dodge on LS | 11% |
Defense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -16% |
2 | 24% |
3 | -11% |
4 | -28% |
5 | -3% |
6 | -8% |
7 | -30% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | -4% |
Feed | -2% |
Power Play | -38% |
Other | 1% |
Top | 15% |
Wing-alley | N/A |
Wing-top | 27% |
X | 1% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | -3% |
Dodge on SS | -3% |
Dodge on LS | 12% |
Chrome
Offense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -16% |
2 | 11% |
3 | 22% |
4 | -21% |
5 | -11% |
6 | -39% |
7 | -21% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | -2% |
Feed | 14% |
Power Play | N/A |
Other | -26% |
Top | -8% |
Wing-alley | -8% |
Wing-top | -28% |
X | 15% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | 0% |
Dodge on SS | 20% |
Dodge on LS | -16% |
Defense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -14% |
2 | 37% |
3 | 16% |
4 | 4% |
5 | 3% |
6 | -1% |
7 | 66% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | 27% |
Feed | 17% |
Power Play | 62% |
Other | 12% |
Top | -3% |
Wing-alley | -38% |
Wing-top | 62% |
X | 13% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | 21% |
Dodge on SS | 18% |
Dodge on LS | -6% |
Redwoods
Offense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -11% |
2 | 13% |
3 | -29% |
4 | -15% |
5 | -15% |
6 | -10% |
7 | -16% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | 5% |
Feed | -9% |
Power Play | 12% |
Other | -3% |
Top | 5% |
Wing-alley | -8% |
Wing-top | -32% |
X | -27% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | -5% |
Dodge on SS | -2% |
Dodge on LS | -25% |
Defense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -34% |
2 | 12% |
3 | -25% |
4 | -9% |
5 | -28% |
6 | -11% |
7 |
22% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | -31% |
Feed | -30% |
Power Play | -20% |
Other | -34% |
Top | -38% |
Wing-alley | -38% |
Wing-top | -38% |
X | -31% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | -1% |
Dodge on SS | -11% |
Dodge on LS | -22% |
Whipsnakes
Offense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | 16% |
2 | 24% |
3 | -11% |
4 | -28% |
5 | -3% |
6 | -8% |
7 | -30% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | -4% |
Feed | -2% |
Power Play | -38% |
Other | 1% |
Top | 15% |
Wing-alley | N/A |
Wing-top | 27% |
X | 1% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | -3% |
Dodge on SS | -3% |
Dodge on LS | -1% |
Defense
Zone | Points Average |
1 | -34% |
2 | 28% |
3 | -16% |
4 | -8% |
5 | -5% |
6 | 25% |
7 | -2% |
Scoring Opp | Points Average |
Alley | 11% |
Feed | -3% |
Power Play | -1% |
Other | 26% |
Top | 16% |
Wing-alley | 66% |
Wing-top | 16% |
X | -25% |
Short or Long-stick | Points Average |
No Dodge | 3% |
Dodge on SS | 18% |
Dodge on LS | 12% |
What We Learned From The PLL
- Atlas did a significantly better job defending at X then up top.
- Overall, it was a much better defensive day for the Atlas than offensive, due to phenomenal play in goal by Tim Troutner.
- The Archers are doing a better job than anyone finishing on the crease shooting 37% above average.
- The Archers are also controlling the crease on defense, making a shot on crease only 11% better than an average shot. (Best in the league)
- Don’t read too much into the two point data, not many where shot in Week 1 despite the closer line.
- The Archers meet a Redwoods defense in Week 2 that played good on the crease in their debut, whoever controls the crease will control that game.
- The Chaos did a good job getting topside, shooting 16% above average when they did.
- On the other end, the Chaos needs to do a better job of defending topside, especially know that they are facing one of the best dodgers in the league in Paul Rabil this weekend.
- The Chrome did a great job dodging from X, shooting 15% above average. In Week 2 they face a Whipsnakes team that excels at defending it.
- Based on Week 1 of the PLL, it seems more important for the Chrome to iso on a short stick than most teams.
- The Redwoods are doing a better job than anyone at defending topside, reducing opponents to shots 38% worse than average.
- While the Redwoods did a good job defending the crease, they’ll face the Atlas, a team that did very well on their crease opportunities in Week 1. Until these offenses get into high gear, crease control wins the game.
- Offensively, the Redwoods need to do a better job of scoring when getting crease looks. Easy points missing from the board, but they’re still 1-0.
- The Whipsnakes were vulnerable on dodges from up top relative to at X
- When initiating from the wing, the Whips did a great job of getting topside shooting 27% above average, the Chrome did a great job defending this dodge so look forward to it in Week 2.