Grow the Game®

2019 premier lacrosse league season
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PLL By the Numbers – Week 1

Editor’s Note: Sports analytics pioneer Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg put their heads together to create advanced metrics for the field game. Their first full-season test subject: the PLL. Because, well, to them, standard stats are boring.

Getting everything put together and polished for Week 1 of the PLL season took a bit more labor and focus than anticipated, but now we have our formulas set for the year. We hope that you can find value in this type of research, a system that’s been applied in other sports for decades. The goal is to show what’s working, and what isn’t, on the field for a league you can easily get access to. From there, we can apply our formulas to any league, any team, anywhere.

PLL Week 1 Results – Boston

  • Archers 13, Chrome 12 (OT)
  • Whipsnakes 15, Chaos 14 (OT)
  • Redwoods 11, Atlas 9

PLL Week 2 Schedule – New York

  • Chrome vs Whipsnakes – Saturday, 1 P.M. on NBCSN
  • Archers vs Redwoods – Saturday, 4 P.M. on NBCSN
  • Atlas vs Chaos – Sunday, 2 P.M. on NBC

What We Look For In The PLL

On each shot we tracked:

  1. The “zone” where a shot was taken
  2. Result of the shot
  3. Whether a short stick or a long stick was guarding the shooter
  4. The type of dodge (if any) to create shot

Zones: 1-3 extend from the crease to about 8 yards out. 4-6 fill to the 2-point line. 7 is anything beyond the arc.

PLL Zones

Possible Results: Goal, Save, Off-Cage, Botched Backup, 2 Pointer

SS or LS: Short-stick or long-stick

Scoring Opportunities: Alley – a north-south dodge away from the middle; Top – a north-south dodge from the topside; Wing-top – a high east-west dodge going topside; Wing-alley – a low east-west dodge going underneath; Power Play – man-up opportunity; Feed – No dodge, but ball movement occurred; X – Dodge from behind the goal.

Each metric shows the points above or below average, which is 0. Ex: if a score reads “+.05” than the team is 5% better than average in that category. We base all of our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3.

Also note, a “+” on defense is a bad thing, because you’re allowing points.

Atlas

Offense

Zone Points Average
1 -34%
2 12%
3 -25%
4 -9%
5 -28%
6 -11%
7 22%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley -31%
Feed -30%
Power Play -20%
Other -34%
Top -38%
Wing-alley -38%
Wing-top -38%
X -31%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge -1%
Dodge on SS -11%
Dodge on LS -22%

Defense

Zone Points Average
1 -11%
2 13%
3 -29%
4 -15%
5 -15%
6 -10%
7 -16%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley 5%
Feed -9%
Power Play 12%
Other -3%
Top 5%
Wing-alley -8%
Wing-top -32%
X -27%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge -5%
Dodge on SS -2%
Dodge on LS -25%

Archers

Offense

Zone Points Average
1 -14%
2 37%
3 16%
4 4%
5 3%
6 -1%
7 66%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley 27%
Feed 17%
Power Play 62%
Other 12%
Top -3%
Wing-alley -38%
Wing-top 62%
X 13%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge 21%
Dodge on SS 18%
Dodge on LS -6%

Defense

Zone Points Average
1 -16%
2 11%
3 22%
4 -21%
5 -11%
6 39%
7 -21%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley -2%
Feed -14%
Power Play N/A
Other -26%
Top -8%
Wing-alley -8%
Wing-top -28%
X 15%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge 0%
Dodge on SS 20%
Dodge on LS -16%

Chaos

Offense

Zone Points Average
1 -34%
2 28%
3 -16%
4 -8%
5 -5%
6 25%
7 -2%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley 11%
Feed -3%
Power Play -1%
Other 26%
Top 16%
Wing-alley 66%
Wing-top 16%
X -25%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge 3%
Dodge on SS 18%
Dodge on LS 11%

Defense

Zone Points Average
1 -16%
2 24%
3 -11%
4 -28%
5 -3%
6 -8%
7 -30%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley -4%
Feed -2%
Power Play -38%
Other 1%
Top 15%
Wing-alley N/A
Wing-top 27%
X 1%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge -3%
Dodge on SS -3%
Dodge on LS 12%

Chrome

Offense

Zone Points Average
1 -16%
2 11%
3 22%
4 -21%
5 -11%
6 -39%
7 -21%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley -2%
Feed 14%
Power Play N/A
Other -26%
Top -8%
Wing-alley -8%
Wing-top -28%
X 15%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge 0%
Dodge on SS 20%
Dodge on LS -16%

Defense

Zone Points Average
1 -14%
2 37%
3 16%
4 4%
5 3%
6 -1%
7 66%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley 27%
Feed 17%
Power Play 62%
Other 12%
Top -3%
Wing-alley -38%
Wing-top 62%
X 13%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge 21%
Dodge on SS 18%
Dodge on LS -6%

Redwoods

Offense

Zone Points Average
1 -11%
2 13%
3 -29%
4 -15%
5 -15%
6 -10%
7 -16%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley 5%
Feed -9%
Power Play 12%
Other -3%
Top 5%
Wing-alley -8%
Wing-top -32%
X -27%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge -5%
Dodge on SS -2%
Dodge on LS -25%

Defense

Zone Points Average
1 -34%
2 12%
3 -25%
4 -9%
5 -28%
6 -11%
7

22%

Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley -31%
Feed -30%
Power Play -20%
Other -34%
Top -38%
Wing-alley -38%
Wing-top -38%
X -31%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge -1%
Dodge on SS -11%
Dodge on LS -22%

Whipsnakes

Offense

Zone Points Average
1 16%
2 24%
3 -11%
4 -28%
5 -3%
6 -8%
7 -30%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley -4%
Feed -2%
Power Play -38%
Other 1%
Top 15%
Wing-alley N/A
Wing-top 27%
X 1%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge -3%
Dodge on SS -3%
Dodge on LS -1%

Defense

Zone Points Average
1 -34%
2 28%
3 -16%
4 -8%
5 -5%
6 25%
7 -2%
Scoring Opp Points Average
Alley 11%
Feed -3%
Power Play -1%
Other 26%
Top 16%
Wing-alley 66%
Wing-top 16%
X -25%
Short or Long-stick Points Average
No Dodge 3%
Dodge on SS 18%
Dodge on LS 12%

What We Learned From The PLL

  • Atlas did a significantly better job defending at X then up top.
  • Overall, it was a much better defensive day for the Atlas than offensive, due to phenomenal play in goal by Tim Troutner.
  • The Archers are doing a better job than anyone finishing on the crease shooting 37% above average.
  • The Archers are also controlling the crease on defense, making a shot on crease only 11% better than an average shot. (Best in the league)
  • Don’t read too much into the two point data, not many where shot in Week 1 despite the closer line.
  • The Archers meet a Redwoods defense in Week 2 that played good on the crease in their debut, whoever controls the crease will control that game.
  • The Chaos did a good job getting topside, shooting 16% above average when they did.
  • On the other end, the Chaos needs to do a better job of defending topside, especially know that they are facing one of the best dodgers in the league in Paul Rabil this weekend.
  • The Chrome did a great job dodging from X, shooting 15% above average. In Week 2 they face a Whipsnakes team that excels at defending it.
  • Based on Week 1 of the PLL, it seems more important for the Chrome to iso on a short stick than most teams.
  • The Redwoods are doing a better job than anyone at defending topside, reducing opponents to shots 38% worse than average.
  • While the Redwoods did a good job defending the crease, they’ll face the Atlas, a team that did very well on their crease opportunities in Week 1. Until these offenses get into high gear, crease control wins the game.
  • Offensively, the Redwoods need to do a better job of scoring when getting crease looks. Easy points missing from the board, but they’re still 1-0.
  • The Whipsnakes were vulnerable on dodges from up top relative to at X
  • When initiating from the wing, the Whips did a great job of getting topside shooting 27% above average, the Chrome did a great job defending this dodge so look forward to it in Week 2.