Statistical mastermind Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg are back with the ‘PLL BTN By The Numbers‘ Week 10 regular season report! This new PLL analytics report includes offensive efficiency metrics, output charts, key insights, and players to watch as we take a look at the PLL regular season stats. We hope you enjoy!
PLL Regular Season Stats 2019
Regular Season Statistics
A shooting analytic originally designed by Patrick McEwen, that counts shots on a goal that didn’t go in as a loss of possession and assumes league average on the probability you retain possession on off cage shots. We have been tracking all off-cage shots but I generally mark it as a save when the goalie catches it even if it looks of cage because it has the value of a save from a functional standpoint. Still our league average checked out to be pretty similar to the one used originally by McEwen so it shouldn’t alter the numbers. Here is the complete list for the PLL regular season stats in Goals Added:
On each goal we tracked the person who dodged to create it. Here are the players who have created the most points based on their dodges; if your dodge created a two pointer you get two points for the dodge, here’s the league rankings for the PLL regular season stats:
We converted face off wins to goals estimating the value of a possession at .3:
On each shot we also tracked:
- The region where shot was taken
- Result of the shot.
- Whether a short stick or a long stick is guarding the dodger
- The type of Dodge (if any) that created the space (The last dodge that happened)
(Left and right are relative to offense)
A sample of the data is shown below:
No metric is perfect, we want you guys to know what isn’t accounted for so you can combine it with the eye test and make informed decisions
- We don’t track turnovers, we focus solely on scoring opportunities
- Dodging Gray Areas- Some dodges, mainly ones with roll backs or redodges can be hard to track. We do our best to define everything, but every week I think about a dodge I classified as one thing that could be another thing.
- Human Error/Data entry
Each metric is the points above or below average ex +.05= 5% better than average. We base our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3. Average is compared to an average shot in general in the league factoring in possession retainment.
- The Archers are you’re definition of an average PLL team with a 5-5 record and a goal differential of six
- Kevin Rice was the limiting factor in the Archers attack in our goals added metric Rice has taken more goals away with wasted possessions than Manny and Holman have created combined. Benching him for Cuccinello has been a good decision.
- The Archers are better when they choose to take the Wing-Alley rather than topside.
- The defense of the Archers is sound, they just need more elite threats besides Holman and Schreiber.
- The Archers defense is defending the arc well, holding teams under .2 points per two-point shot.
Key Player vs. Redwoods- T. Schreiber
The close defense of the Redwoods is sound and should be able to contain the moderate dodging impact of the Archers; Schreiber will be the one that needs to create.
- The Atlas are getting ROASTED behind the two point arc, in the PLL defense is about more than defending the crease. Allowing .36 points per shot
- If you estimate the value of a possession as .3 Baptiste has added over eleven goals to the Atlas. Significantly more than any shooter.
- Brown is a below average shooter in goals added, but we believe that’s because he is shooting primarily long ones. Meanwhile Law leads the league in Goals Added because he is taking shots on the crease.
- Overall the Atlas are better off taking the Wing-Alley then going topside.
- With Brown only creating one goal this season, if I play against Atlas I’m double poling the mid field. Our goals created numbers are much higher with the midfield.
- Fun fact Paul Rabil is shooting below league average at -1.59 goals added.
Key Player vs. Chrome- T. Baptiste
The Atlas are arguably the weakest team outside of their FOGO, and will need the extra possessions to remain competitive. We believe Baptiste is the current MVP of the league, because the quantity of possessions. Every week he is the key player.
- The Chaos have the most dominant offense, and they are making great use of the most valuable shots in the game (two’s and crease). Note how far above average those both are.
- The talent on this offense extends beyond, their attack and even beyond their short sticks as a whole. Jarrod Neumann is currently adding the second most goals to his team in our Goals Added stat, and Matt Rees is in the top ten as well.
- The Chaos are doing better when they take the Wing-Alley then when they go top.
- Six of the top 20 players in our goals added stat play for Chaos. Three of which are poles!
Key Player vs. Whipsnakes- J. Byrne
Byrne is proving to be incredibly efficient. When he is in the active roster he is shooting phenomenally. Everyone keys on Fields, but Byrne does his job just as well.
- The Chrome are getting burned behind the arc. A two-point shot against Chrome is 0.16 points better than average! Averaging .42 points per shot.
- The Chrome are not without scorers despite their record. Guterding, Manley, Ranagan, and MacIntosh, and Crotty are shooting a goal above average in goals added. Note that Wolf is in the bottom ten in goals added
- The Chrome are creating a lot of goals off the dodge. Guterding is leading the league in points created by the dodge. Crotty, Wolf and Ranagan are not far behind.
- Thanks to Wolf and Guterding the Chrome are at their best when initiating from X
Key Player vs. Atlas- Connor Farrell
Someone must neutralize Baptiste and limit the Atlas’s quantity of possessions.
- The Redwoods have not utilized the shorter two-point line at all. A Redwoods two pointer is 0,18 points per shot below average.
- The Redwoods are doing better when they dodge from the top than anywhere else. One of the few teams to fare better when they dodge from the top than the wing. The problem with dodging from the top is you give yourself a long one if no one slides. This could explain why so many Redwoods players are near the bottom of our goals added.
- The Redwoods defense is most vulnerable when they are attacked on the wing
Key Player vs. Archers E. Glazner – The source of the communication for the defense, Glazner is very underrated. The Archers are great in six-on-six and Glazner can direct traffic and keep the Redwoods organized while they slide.
- The Whipsnakes are defending dodges on the wing as opposed to up top
- The Whipsnakes are most vulnerable when defending dodges from the top.
- When dodging on the wings the Whipsnakes are having trouble going underneath but doing a great job going topside
- One player isn’t the reason the Whipsnakes are successful. Only one player in the top ten in the goals added stats, but many players doing a good steady job. (Drenner, Rambo, Channench, Nardella, Mueller, Paparo, Warner, Sieverts, Young and Haus all shooting above average) Along with Connor Kelly and Rambo creating a lot of goals.
Key Player vs. Chaos M. Rambo-
Rambo is the best creator on the team, and is dodging very efficiently. If they are going to keep up with the elite Chaos offense, he will have to have a big day.
Odds to Win Championship
Whipsnakes – 46.3%
Chaos – 31.5%
Archers – 14.1%
Redwoods – 8.1%