2016 MLL Playoffs Picture

It’s… 2016 MLL PLAYOFFS TIME!!!

OK, so maybe I’m a few (several) weeks early, but after seeing the logjam that is the MLL standings right now, I can’t help but think: who has the best chance? Who has little or no chance? Where we stand right now, every team still has a shot at finishing .500 or better, so things are technically wide open at first glance… but it’s never that simple, so let’s dive a little deeper!

First of all, the main thing with 2016 MLL playoffs is that only the top four teams make it in to the dance. There are no divisions or home field advantages to play for either. If you get in, you get in and you keep playing. If you miss out, better luck next year. Given how close the standings are, here’s a quick look at the main tie breaking procedures:

1. Best record wins (makes sense)
2. If two teams are tied:
   1. Head-to-head winning percentage (also makes sense)
   2. Head-to-head scoring margin (I’m with it)
   3. Total scoring margin (sure!)
3. If three or more teams are tied:
   1. Winning percentage among tied teams (got it)
   2. Scoring margin among tied teams (still got it)
   3. Total scoring margin (ok, it’s consistent)
   4. Repeat this process until all spots are filled (could this happen????)

There are actually a few more steps and tie breakers, but those rules give us enough to work with for now. OK, now on to the current standings:

2016 MLL Playoffs Picture

If the season ended today… well, that would be tragic and I’m pretty sure we would all need to know what the heck is going on. Let me rephrase that. If the current standings hold, New York, Charlotte, Chesapeake, and Rochester would be our four playoff teams. The season doesn’t end today, so let’s actually take a look at what each team needs to accomplish to have the above happen!

BONUS: MLL ASG Highlights

New York Lizards (6-3)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta W by 1 (+1)
Vs. Boston W by 1 (+1)
Vs. Charlotte W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Denver W by 3, L by 4 (-1)
Vs. Florida W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Ohio L by 12 (-12)
Vs. Rochester W by 3 (+3)

Remaining:

Vs. Boston (7/30)
Vs. Chesapeake (7/28)
Vs. Florida (7/14)
Vs. Ohio (8/06)
Vs. Rochester (7/23)

To get in: Just win, baby! If New York wins out, they’re absolutely in. They can drop 1 game and still breathe pretty easily. If they drop two out of their last 5, we might be talking tiebreaker scenarios depending on who they lose to and by how much.

Biggest threat: Their schedule. The only teams that New York currently owns tie breakers over are Atlanta and Charlotte, while they still play every other top team. They will probably still lose a tiebreaker with Ohio, even if they win by a couple there, but all their other head to heads are so close that the second game will really matter.

How do they miss it all?: If they drop their last 5 games, I don’t see a 6-8 team making it in. Even 7-7 is a stretch and 8-6 is reaaaally pushing it this year. The defending champs faltered a bit last year, but definitely bounced back. They didn’t win every game by blowout last year, and they’re not doing that this year. That means you should NOT discount the Scales.

Charlotte Hounds (6-3)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta W by 6, W by 1 (+7)
Vs. Boston W by 3, W by 3 (+6)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 4 (-4)
Vs. Florida W by 2 (+2)
Vs. New York L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Ohio L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Rochester W by 3 (+3)

Remaining:

Vs. Chesapeake (8/06)
Vs. Denver (7/23, 7/30)
Vs. Florida (7/22)
Vs. Rochester (7/16)

To get in: They’re in pretty much the same boat as New York, including tiebreakers. They have an edge on Atlanta and Boston. They will need to beat Chesapeake by 5 or more to feel safer, and they just have to not lose to Rochester. They could lose both games to Denver and Florida, and probably still be in good shape due to the tiebreakers.

Biggest threat: Rochester and Chesapeake have the best chance to really bury the Hounds. If they lose those and still beat Denver and Florida, they’re in OK shape. Depending on margins, losing those two games could have the Hounds on the wrong end of tiebreakers with Rochester, Chesapeake, Ohio, and New York. Not having the edge on four teams with only four teams allowed into the postseason is not a good spot to be in.

How do they miss it all?: The obvious answer is losing out. Chesapeake and Rochester are their must wins games and they need to at least split with Denver, ideally winning the margin battle. They only beat Florida by two, so a big loss there could knock them down even more.

Chesapeake Bayhawks (6-4)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Boston L by 2, L by 3 (-5)
Vs. Charlotte W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Denver W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Florida W by 4 (+4)
Vs. New York W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Ohio W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Rochester L by 4, L by 10 (-14)

Remaining:

Vs. Atlanta (7/21)
Vs. Charlotte (8/06)
Vs. Florida (7/16)
Vs. New York (7/28)

To get in: Chesapeake might be in the best position out of anyone right now. If they win their next four game, they’re a lock. Losses to any of them might not even hurt them that much as long as they’re close losses. The best thing is they have only lost to two teams…

Biggest threat: …but both of those teams are in serious playoff contention. Being on the wrong side of two tiebreakers like Rochester and Boston is not a good place to be. Charlotte and New York are also both more than capable of winning by a large enough margin to make up the gap.

How do they miss it all?: If they lose to New York AND Charlotte by 4 or 5 points each, things are not looking great for an 8-6 Bayhawks team, assuming they still beat Florida and Atlanta. Atlanta’s reeling from injuries right now, so that looks good as Chesapeake will be that new offense’s first opponent. Florida is playing for their lives, so don’t chalk that up as an automatic W.

Rochester Rattlers (5-4)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Boston L by 1, L by 6 (-7)
Vs. Charlotte L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Chesapeake W by 4, W by 10 (+14)
Vs. Denver W by 8 (+8)
Vs. New York L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Ohio W by 4, W by 3 (+7)

Remaining:

Vs. Atlanta (8/04)
Vs. Charlotte (7/16)
Vs. Denver (7/28)
Vs. Florida (7/30)
Vs. New York (7/23)

To get in: Given their place in the standings, having tiebreakers over both Chesapeake and Ohio may be huge. Beating New York and Charlotte by 4 or more are the biggest hurdles for the Ratz. Losing the tiebreaker to Boston means they have to stay ahead of the Cannons. Since the Cannons have one more loss than the Rattlers, that’s their mark right now. If the Cannons lose a game, the Rattlers can, too.

Biggest threat: The Cannons are definitely right up there. A single slip-up by Rochester means Boston can match them and keep pace to overtake them in the standings. After Boston, it may be New York and Charlotte. A win by Rochester pulls those two even in the standings, and point differential will come into play. Losses there mean the Rattlers are fighting for playoff spot 3 or 4.

How do they miss it all?: With only 5 wins, the Rattlers could hit a skid like they started the year with and fall off the radar. If you don’t think that’s possible, go back and what their most recent game vs. Boston. This team can play like the best team in the league when things are humming. They can also play like one of the worst. With two consecutive championship game appearances, I’m not betting against the Ratz just yet.

Ohio Machine (6-5)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Boston W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Charlotte W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Denver L by 1, W by 1 (0)
Vs. Florida W by 2, W by 4 (+6)
Vs. New York W by 12 (+12)
Vs. Rochester L by 4, L by 3 (-7)

Remaining:

Vs. Atlanta (7/30)
Vs. Boston (7/15)
Vs. New York (8/06)

To get in: Ohio needs to stay ahead of Boston, which is greatly helped by their big win there earlier in the season. They also own a huge margin over New York, which means they care more about just winning in the rematch than points. Losing another to Atlanta could really hurt if the Blaze goes on a run to end the season.

Biggest threat: Atlanta (long shot) and Boston. If Atlanta wins out, Ohio is out. Both teams would be an identical 8-6, assuming Ohio wins their other two. Boston is tied right now, so whoever wins that game gets a slight edge in record, nullifying the tie-breaking scenarios for the moment.

How do they miss it all?: Losing to Atlanta might be OK, assuming the Blaze drop a game to someone else. Having tiebreakers over Charlotte and likely New York and Boston will really help the Machine in a variety of scenarios. Ohio has lost their last 3 games, all at home. They host Boston next, which if they lose than AND another, will probably be their season.

Boston Cannons (6-5)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta W by 1, W by 9 (+10)
Vs. Charlotte L by 3, L by 3 (-6)
Vs. Chesapeake W by 2, W by 3 (+5)
Vs. Denver L by 4 (-4)
Vs. New York L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Ohio L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Rochester W by 1, W by 6 (+7)

Remaining:

Vs. Florida (8/06)
Vs. New York (7/30)
Vs. Ohio (7/15)

To get in: Having already played 11 games, the Cannons are running out of time to lock things up. They need to beat Ohio by more than 7 to get some breathing room. Florida doesn’t have any strategic value outside of a pure win. With that being their last game, that might be all they need at that point. Beating New York by more than a goal would be huge. That game alone doesn’t setup a tie, but it would have them positioned well. In the end, Boston does needs some wins and some help. Three wins PROBABLY do it. Two wins and I’d be nervous.

Biggest threat: Ohio and Charlotte. Not having the tiebreaker over Charlotte could spell trouble for the Cannons. Ohio is not only a must win game, but they really need to run up the score on the Machine. Losing by 7 in their first meeting was not good considering where the standings are right now. Losing the tiebreaker to Ohio is not a good spot to be with what would be six losses.

How do they miss it all?: Losing on the road to Ohio is a real possibility. They follow that up by hosting New York in a game which I actually slightly favor the Cannons at the moment. Their finale against Florida might mean the world. Dropping either home game might spell the end of the season for the Cannons without some help from teams like Chesapeake helping to knock Charlotte and New York down a bit.

Denver Outlaws (4-6)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta L by 11 (-11)
Vs. Boston W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Florida L by 3, W by 4  (+1)
Vs. New York L by 3, W by 4 (+1)
Vs. Ohio W by 1, L by 1 (0)
Vs. Rochester L by 8 (-8)

Remaining:

Vs. Atlanta (7/16)
Vs. Charlotte (7/23, 7/30)
Vs. Rochester (7/28)

To get in: Denver is in dire straits, but they can still pull off a winning record. The question is: will that be enough? Their best bet is to have Chesapeake take the top spot. With a tiebreaker over New York, the Lizards losing and having Rochester go into the second spot is the ideal scenario. If Denver gets to 8-6, Charlotte would have to essentially lose out, but they can beat Florida and keep Denver alive. They need Ohio and Boston to both lose to New York in addition to having Florida beat Boston and Atlanta top Ohio. Those losses put both the Machine and Cannons at 7-7 at best, with one game against each other this weekend. With those two out of the way and Charlotte really tanking this season, the Outlaws could snag the fourth spot. THEY’RE STILL ALIVE!

Biggest threat: Charlotte, Ohio, Boston, and Atlanta. Any of these teams can totally ruin Denver’s chances by winning out (Atlanta), beating New York (Boston, Ohio), or just winning 2 games of any kind (Charlotte).

How do they miss it all?: Losing one more game probably sinks the Outlaws. Losing two definitely does. If they’re going to lose…lose to Rochester. Charlotte or Atlanta are probably game over.

Atlanta Blaze (3-6)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Boston L by 1, L by 9 (-10)
Vs. Charlotte L by 6, L by 1 (-7)
Vs. Chesapeake L by  3 (-3)
Vs. Denver W by 11 (+11)
Vs. Florida W by 12 (+12)
Vs. New York L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Ohio W by 1 (+1)

Remaining:

Vs. Chesapeake (7/21)
Vs. Denver (7/16)
Vs. Florida (7/23)
Vs. Ohio (7/30)
Vs. Rochester (8/04)

To get in: The worst thing about the Blaze right now is that they just lost Kevin Rice and/or Matt Mackrides for the season. Any hope of turning things around just became that much tougher. While at the surface they look to be in the same spot as Denver, their paths are totally different. They are fighting for the fourth playoff spot at best and lose tiebreakers to Boston and Charlotte. This means they want Charlotte to win out, which knocks the Outlaws from contention & move Chesapeake and Rochester down a notch. If the Lizards can beat Rochester and Chesapeake, that’s another notch higher. That puts all three of these teams (ROC, CHE, ATL) with six losses, and the Blaze play them both with reasonable margins available if they win. If Atlanta is able to leap Ohio and battle Rochester and Chesapeake for the final spot, Blaze fans need to be huge Launch fans. A win by Florida over one of these teams giving Atlanta enough breathing room that they could also lose to Florida and still see the postseason. The odds are long, but the Blaze still have a chance.

Biggest threat: Rochester, Chesapeake and Ohio can all play spoiler. When you’re as far back as Atlanta is right now, everyone is a threat.

How do they miss it all?: Lose one game, and they might be OK if it’s Denver or the Launch. Even in this scenario, they will still need some serious help. Lose to anyone else, and that’s probably the season.

Florida Launch (1-7)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta L by 12 (-12)
Vs. Charlotte L by 2 (-2)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 4 (-4)
Vs. Denver W by 3, L by 4 (-1)
Vs. New York L by 6 (-6)
Vs. Ohio L by 2, L by 4 (-6)

Remaining:

Vs. Atlanta (7/23)
Vs. Boston (8/06)
Vs. Charlotte (7/22)
Vs. Chesapeake (7/16)
Vs. New York (7/14)
Vs. Rochester (7/30)

To get in: OK, get comfortable. Florida has to win out to reach .500, meaning they also need 5 teams to be below .500, or have the tiebreaker over them. Beating the Blaze and having Atlanta lose another game would be step one. Florida probably won’t beat them by more than 12, so they’ll want help there. If Charlotte and New York win the rest of their games, that will put them both at 10-4, occupying the top two spots. Chesapeake would have 7 losses, without factoring in their game against Atlanta, so if the Launch can be Chesapeake by 5 or more, they win that tie. Beating Rochester would mean the Rattlers still have games against Atlanta and Denver. Point differential won’t matter since Rochester only plays Florida once, so Florida really doesn’t care about those game right now.

That leaves Boston and Ohio. Assuming a win over Boston by both Florida and New York, the Cannons would have seven losses with a game versus Ohio. Even if Ohio doesn’t lose to Boston, New York, and Atlanta, that could give the Machine the #3 spot and Florida the #4. This is an absolutely crazy set of circumstances, but it’s possible. If Florida somehow pulls all this off, can you imagine the storyline with this being Casey Powell‘s final year? The collective lacrosse media’s head would explode.

Biggest threat: Any team that plays in the MLL. This is a set of dominoes right now.

How do they miss it all?: Very easily. They MIGHT be able to recover if they lose to new York. A loss to Rochester, Chesapeake, or Boston mean it’s over.

So that’s where we sit this week. I’ll leave you with one final clip with Florida in mind. You tell me who that last domino is.

Any guesses?