The Big Ten lacrosse landscape has been incredibly competitive this year, especially when compared to years past. Every team in the Big Ten semifinals truly has a shot at making a run. With the tournament taking place in Michigan, none of the four teams have a home-field advantage. With all of the games happening on Thursday (May 1st), the Big Ten Lacrosse Championship game will take place late Saturday night. Expect rain delays throughout the games, as Ann Arbor is expected to experience thunderstorms all night. Let’s dive into each of the Big Ten lacrosse matchups and see which teams have the favorable edge.
#1 Ohio State vs #5 Rutgers
(Thursday, May 1st @ 12:00pm)
The Ohio State Buckeyes are having an incredible year, sitting with a 12-2 record. One of the losses came way back on February 1st against Utah, which was a real wake-up call for the squad. Since then, the team has only lost to Maryland and has handled business everywhere else. Rutgers, on the other hand, has had a very interesting year. With a 7-8 record, the team has been under .500 all season long. They opened up Big Ten play with a win over Johns Hopkins and a surprising victory over Maryland, winning 8-6.
Every Big Ten lacrosse team qualifies for the tournament, and Rutgers was able to take down Michigan in the first round to earn this spot against Ohio State. Their first head-to-head matchup was a close affair, with Ohio State coming out on top 13-11. It was an interesting game on paper, as both teams shot the ball a considerable amount. The main difference, however, was Ohio State’s goalkeeping, with the Buckeyes making 19 saves compared to Rutgers’ eight. Rutgers’ slow start in the first quarter created too much of a gap for them to close down the stretch, resulting in a two-goal loss. Since that game, the Rutgers offense has struggled, scoring eight, eight, four, and then a nice 11 against Michigan.
When it comes to comparing these teams head-to-head, offense becomes the key difference maker. The Buckeyes are averaging 12.7 goals per game, while Rutgers is only averaging 9.1. Barely scoring nine goals a game makes it tough to win games consistently. However, the defense has been incredible. Both Ohio State and Rutgers’ defenses are averaging 8.7 goals per game, some of the best in the country. The extra possessions will matter in this one, and Rutgers may get the edge here, as they have a 57% faceoff win rate compared to Ohio State’s 50%.
This is going to be a nail-biter. It could be easy for the Buckeyes to overlook Rutgers due to their record and come up short when it matters most. Rutgers will do everything in their power to come out on top, and I feel they have the confidence and ability to do so if they can slow down the Ohio State offense.
Prediction: Ohio State 12 – Rutgers 10
#2 Maryland vs #3 Penn State
(Thursday, May 1st @ 2:30pm)
Both the Maryland Terrapins and the Penn State Nittany Lions have nearly identical resumes on paper. Both teams have secured 10 wins and finished the regular season with a 3-2 record in conference play. Maryland stumbled along the way with a triple-overtime loss to Michigan and a surprising loss to Rutgers. Penn State lost in a heartbreaking overtime game against Princeton and fell to Ohio State and Maryland in back-to-back weeks. Both squads have hovered around the top five all season long, with Maryland typically getting the edge due to their head-to-head win over Penn State.
In their first outing against each other, there weren’t many shots to begin with. Penn State shot the ball 33 times compared to Maryland’s 25, with the Terrapins making more saves—10 to 6. Penn State absolutely dominated the faceoff battle, winning 16 to 8. Other than these discrepancies, the teams were basically identical on paper. A slow first half from the Nittany Lions really hurt them, as they entered halftime down 2-7, a tough hole to dig out of. They finished the second half even, 6-6, but again, it was the first half that really decided the game.
Both teams’ offenses and defenses have been considered some of the best in the country all season long. The Nittany Lions get the advantage on offense, averaging 12.6 goals per game compared to 11.7 for the Terrapins. However, Maryland gets the slight edge on the defensive side, allowing only 7.6 goals per game compared to Penn State’s 8.8. Both of these averages are outstanding, and it’s clear we’re in for another defensive battle, which explains the low number of shots in their first matchup. Faceoffs will always be a huge factor, especially in low-scoring affairs like this, and this is where Penn State takes the final edge, winning their faceoffs at a 57% clip compared to Maryland’s 51%.
This game really feels like a 50/50 coin flip. Penn State is going to be hungry to make another trip back to the Big Ten Lacrosse Championship game after their embarrassing loss to Michigan last year. This team wants greatness, and they’ve been on the brink of it year after year. However, in big moments, it’s very tough to bet against the Maryland Terrapins. I think this will be a fairly low-scoring affair, with Maryland coming out on top.
Prediction: Maryland 9 – Penn State 7
