July 2, 2017; Chesapeake, MD, USA; Rochester Rattlers @ Chesapeake Bayhawks at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Photography Credit MLL Playoff Picture
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MLL Playoff Picture Redefined

After a packed weekend of games, the MLL playoff picture is still as muddy as ever. Teams are lining up for the dreaded 8-6 finish. The games were awesome, with several going down to the last minute.

Right now, let’s get into how the postseason is shaping up:

The MLL Playoff Picture

Seed Team Wins Losses Win % Wins over Losses to Left Streak
1 Denver 8 4 .667 CHAx2, NYx2, FL, BOS,ATL, OH ROCx2, BOS,OH CHEx2 -2
2 Ohio 8 4 .667 ATL, CHA, FL, CHEx2, BOSx2,DEN ROC, CHA,NY, DEN NY, ROC -2
3 Florida 7 6 .538 ROCx2, NYx2, ATL,CHE,CHA BOS, DEN, OH, CHA, ATL BOS +2
4 New York 6 6 .500 CHE, ATL, ROC ,OH,CHA, BOS DENx2, BOS, FLx2,ATL CHA, OH +2
8 Chesapeake 6 6 .500 BOS, CHA, ATLx2, ROC, FL NY, OHx2, ROC, CHA,FL DENx2 +2
7 Rochester 6 6 .500 OH, BOSx2, DENx2, CHE FLx2, CHA, NY, ATL, CHE ATL, OH +2
5 Charlotte 5 7 .417 ROC, OH, ATL, CHE, FL DENx2, OH, CHE, ATL, NY,FL NY, BOS -2
6 Atlanta 5 7 .417 BOS, CHA, ROC, FL,NY OH, NY, CHEx2, CHA, FL, DEN ROC, BOS -1
9 Boston 3 8 .273 FL, NY, DEN ATL, CHE, ROCx2, DEN, OHx2, NY CHA, FL, ATL -3

No teams clinch with 8 wins. Only two teams are promised 8 wins, because that’s what they have. Further, Atlanta and Charlotte can only get 7 wins each at most.

Boston: Out. The Cannons were the first team eliminated from playoff contention. They can still make like miserable for other teams, though! Plus, this also means that Boston is in line to draft Ben Reeves next season, so they have that going for them.

Atlanta: Are they in with 7 wins? No, but they have a shot. A loss this week to Rochester means they’re out. If they beat the Rattlers and win in Boston next week, they still need some help. The easiest path for them: win both games, have Denver beat the Bayhawks twice, Boston beat Charlotte, Ohio win both of their games, and finally have Charlotte top the Lizards. It’s a laundry list, but oddly enough, it’s the most straightforward way in.

Charlotte: Along with Atlanta, the Hounds also sit at 5 wins. Oddly enough, they actually can still get into the playoffs if they lose to Boston this week and beat New York next week for 6 wins. It comes via a complicated tiebreaker with Chesapeake, assuming a five way tie for fourth place at six wins. In that situation, it will actually come down to a head to head tiebreaker with the Bayhawks. They split their meetings this season at 1-1 and their score differential is zero. That brings us to the next step, which is overall win margin. Chesapeake is sitting at +4 and would have to lose twice to Denver for this scenario to happen. Charlotte is sitting at -5, and would need one small loss to Boston and a big win over New York. It’s unlikely, but it could happen! They can still get in with 7 like Atlanta, but why not explore the crazier options a little bit?

Now we get into the fun ones. Like I said earlier, nobody has clinched. Since we already have two teams at 8 wins, that means none of those tree teams tied at six wins, or Florida at 7, can clinch with 8 wins.

Rochester: The Rattlers can be anywhere from out of the playoffs to the first seed. Obviously, they need to win their last two games. For the Rattlers at eight wins, having tiebreakers over Denver and Ohio go a long way if those teams don’t win again. What really benefits the Rattlers is that they only played the Lizards and Charlotte once. The Ratz can still get in with help at 7 wins, and even better for them: it doesn’t matter which game it is. Chances are low that the Rattlers will know their fate this weekend, but that will depend on other games.

Chesapeake: The Bayhawks really do not want New York to win any more games. The fewer teams at 8 wins, then better. That also means they have to beat the Outlaws twice, though. That will be no easy task. They can still get in with just 7 wins, like most teams, but there would of course have to be some help from the outside. The main team working against the Bayhawks is New York. If the Lizards lose out, the Bayhawks’ chances go up.

New York: The Lizards have put a few wins together and will end their season against two teams they already have wins against. If they hit seven wins, there is no locked in postseason bid. If they get to 8? Still no. Their kryptonite in this case is a four way tiebreaker with the Bayhawks, Outlaws, and Launch. The best case for New York is dragging Ohio into the tiebreakers.

Florida: The Launch are in a really interesting spot. They only have one game left, which is this weekend against Boston. Let’s just say they go ahead and win that. Are they in with that alone? No. But, if they beat Boston and Denver, Atlanta, or Ohio win this weekend, the Launch are in. If that doesn’t happen, they will watch the weekend unfold from home.

Ohio: The Machine are in with a win after beating Denver on Sunday night. They can still be knocked out if they hover at eight wins, so please. I’m asking you nicely. Just win and make this all easier.

Denver: That same goes for you, Outlaws. Just win and take up a spot. Make the math easier and outcomes more straightforward. Please.