MLL Playoff Scenarios – Week 13

I won’t go crazy with inserting videos for teams like I did last week, but there were definitely some shakeups in the MLL Playoff Scenarios. Oh, there’s also a new top team and the Florida Launch have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. Not the kind of “FIRST!!!!” anyone wants.

So if other teams don’t want to “pull a Florida” this week, here are the most important games for this next weekend, ranked in order of importance, and based on what I’m seeing right now.

MLL Playoff Scenarios – Week 13

#1: Saturday, July 23rd: New York at Rochester, 5:00PM EDT

Both are currently “in”, but need to lock things up to stay in. Oh, and it’s kind of a championship game rematch, so yeah…

#2: Saturday, July 23rd: Denver at Charlotte, 7:30PM EDT

Denver’s road to a playoff spot goes through Charlotte. It’s do or die for the Outlaws.

#3: Friday, July 22nd: Charlotte at Florida, 7:30PM EDT

Charlotte really needs to keep getting wins more than anything. Florida’s offense may have just found their stride, but now that they are “out”, will they show up and play to win?

#4: Thursday, July 21st: Atlanta at Chesapeake, 7:30PM EDT

Atlanta is a long shot and Chesapeake is in first. It should still be a great game, with the “must win” Atlanta attitude, but the importance is a little lower than the other match ups. Chesapeake is very close to locking in a playoff spot and Atlanta is a “definitely maybe”.

#5: Saturday, July 23rd: Florida at Atlanta, 7:00PM EDT

Florida is already eliminated and Atlanta is next in line to be. What I love about this game is that it is a budding rivalry for teams in the southeast. Both are new and both are trying to carve out a new part of the country to call their own. Atlanta is trying to find a new identity and Florida may have just found theirs.

OK, now on to the current standings:

Currently in (with seeds):

#1 Chesapeake (7-4)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Boston L by 2, L by 3 (-5)
Vs. Charlotte W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Denver W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Florida W by 4m W by 1 (+5)
Vs. New York W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Ohio W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Rochester L by 4, L by 10 (-14)

Remaining:

Vs. Atlanta (7/21)
Vs. Charlotte (8/06)
Vs. New York (7/28)

To get in: The Bayhawks still own some phenominal tiebreakers across the board. This week’s Atlanta game won’t do much outside of add another win if they pull it off. They might even lock a postseason spot with that eight win.

Biggest threat: New York and Charlotte. If both of those teams beat the Bayhawks AND win most or all of their other games, then Chesapeake’s standing could fall considerably. Depending on those losses, they might lose tiebreakers to those two and Rochester. Not a great place to be if you’re looking to get a fourth seed.

How do they miss it all?: Just like last week: If they lose to New York AND Charlotte by 4 or 5 points each, things are not looking great for an 8-6 Bayhawks team. They’re at worst a .500 team, so they need to lose all those games and have some lucky teams leapfrog them with 8 win records. Still possible, but less likely by the week.

#2 New York (6-4)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta W by 1 (+1)
Vs. Boston W by 1 (+1)
Vs. Charlotte W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Denver W by 3, L by 4 (-1)
Vs. Florida W by 4, L by 1 (+3)
Vs. Ohio L by 12 (-12)
Vs. Rochester W by 3 (+3)

Remaining:

Vs. Boston (7/30)
Vs. Chesapeake (7/28)
Vs. Ohio (8/06)
Vs. Rochester (7/23)

To get in: All New York had to do was win and they could have kept their grasp of the #1 spot. After giving up so many goals to Florida, there has to be some worry with the Lizards. I don’t think for a second anyone on that team thought they would just stroll to a second championship, but that was not a good loss. They are still in the #2 spot and own a few favorable tiebreakers while having time to build on those. Wins over Rochester and Chesapeake should lock up a spot for New York. A win over Rochester might even do it depending on what else happens.

Biggest threat: Last week’s answer: “Their schedule.” They just started with the “easy” game and dropped that. With Rochester next, they cannot afford to lose another just for mental reasons. That would make three out of their last four with a double-header weekend waiting for them.

How do they miss it all?: They’re still almost a lock, so really just a ton of losing.

#3 Rochester (6-4)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Boston L by 1, L by 6 (-7)
Vs. Charlotte L by 3, W by 4 (+1)
Vs. Chesapeake W by 4, W by 10 (+14)
Vs. Denver W by 8 (+8)
Vs. New York L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Ohio W by 4, W by 3 (+7)

Remaining:

Vs. Atlanta (8/04)
Vs. Denver (7/28)
Vs. Florida (7/30)
Vs. New York (7/23)

To get in: Beating New York by 4 this week will not be a lock, but it would clear another major hurdle. That would give the Rattlers a tiebreaker over everyone except Boston. Given how close these standings are, that is an excellent card to have in your hand. If they win all four, they’re definitely in. I would assume just three, provided it includes a New York win, would also be a lock.

Biggest threat: Boston. If Rochester start losing games and is battling for the #4 spot their worst fear is matching records with Boston. If they avoid that, they should be fine.

How do they miss it all?: Losing two games creates the potential tiebreaker problem with Boston. Losing three adds in nearly everyone else. Losing four? You probably shouldn’t even be in the playoffs at that point, anyway.

#4 Charlotte (6-4)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta W by 6, W by 1 (+7)
Vs. Boston W by 3, W by 3 (+6)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 4 (-4)
Vs. Florida W by 2 (+2)
Vs. New York L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Ohio L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Rochester W by 3 (+3), L by 4 (-1)

Remaining:

Vs. Chesapeake (8/06)
Vs. Denver (7/23, 7/30)
Vs. Florida (7/22)

To get in: If Charlotte wins both games against Denver and just one of their other two, I have a hard time seeing a nine win team missing the playoffs with now. If that third game is Chesapeake, they’re definitely in.

Biggest threat: Denver. With two games in a row against the Outlaws, the Hounds could fall in the pack very quickly. Given their unfavorable tiebreakers to Chesapeake, New York, Rochester, and Ohio, that is not a good place to be.

How do they miss it all?: Losing to Rochester dropped the hounds from #2 to #4 already. If they drop their games to Denver, they will have a very hard time recovering and will need plenty of help. As you’ll read below, lots of teams really want Charlotte to lose. Their spot is not safe at all.

In The Hunt

These teams to a certain extend do not control their own fate. If the season ended today, they’d be out of the playoffs.

Ohio (7-5)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Boston W by 7, W by 2 (+9)
Vs. Charlotte W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Denver L by 1, W by 1 (0)
Vs. Florida W by 2, W by 4 (+6)
Vs. New York W by 12 (+12)
Vs. Rochester L by 4, L by 3 (-7)

Remaining:

Vs. Atlanta (7/30)
Vs. New York (8/06)

To get in: Getting to seven wins was big for Ohio, but doing so with only two games remaining is not ideal. If they can beat both New York and Atlanta, 9-5 should be enough to get into the playoffs, but let’s take a closer look.

Not having a tiebreaker over either Chesapeake or Rochester hurts. The Machine need both of those teams to lose two more games. Since they don’t play each other, that does complicate things. Take things in a different direction, though. Since the machine have tiebreakers over nearly everyone else, they want the Rattlers and Bayhawks to finish on top. The Bayhawks especially are key. If they can beat Charlotte and New York, Ohio should be in. There are some more we could look at, but let’s leave it there for now. If you’re a Machine fan, repeat after me: “Gooooooo Bayhawks!”.

Biggest threat: New York. If the Lizards hand the Machine their sixth loss, things will not look rosy. Fortunately that game is not until the last week of the regular season, so we will really know what to expect by then. Ohio will probably own a tiebreaker with New York still, but it would depend on who else they are fighting with.

How do they miss it all?: If Charlotte beats Denver twice, Rochester wins two games, New York wins two games, and Chesapeake wins just one more, that creates a log jam at eight wins. That means one slip by the Machine in one of their two games would be the end.

Boston (6-6)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta W by 1, W by 9 (+10)
Vs. Charlotte L by 3, L by 3 (-6)
Vs. Chesapeake W by 2, W by 3 (+5)
Vs. Denver L by 4 (-4)
Vs. New York L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Ohio L by 7, L by 2 (-9)
Vs. Rochester W by 1, W by 6 (+7)

Remaining:

Vs. Florida (8/06)
Vs. New York (7/30)

To get in: Boston needs to hit 8 wins to close out the season. They only have major tiebreakers over Chesapeake and Rochester, so that’s who they want to have fall to the bottom. If they can beat New York by 2 or more, that will significantly help their cause with another tiebreaker.

The team Boston should cheer for is Charlotte. They have the easiest schedule and if they can win out to grab the #1 seed, it help Boston by eliminating Denver and knocking Chesapeake back a little. If Atlanta can also beat Chesapeake, then the Bayhawks will at best tie the Cannons.

Since Ohio already owns a big tiebreaker over the Cannons, give them the #2 spot by having them beat New York and Atlanta. That puts New York in the same boat as Chesapeake. If New York can beat Rochester, the winner of the Lizards/Bayhawks game would be tied with Boston. The loser would be 7-7 and out of the playoffs.

From Boston’s viewpoint, Rochester is the biggest wildcard. They don’t play another other teams besides New York that Boston is concerned with, so the Cannons really just Rochester to lose.

Biggest threat: Rochester, New York. So right those two names together feels like a mailing address, but they are two of the biggest threats to Boston. If New York wins the head to head matchup, Boston is probably out. If Rochester wins out, they can force Boston into a very tight spot.

How do they miss it all?: Lose two games and they’re out. I don’t think anything will happen this weekend that would eliminate them while they’re idle, but I don’t think that will help their nerves at all. We’ll take a closer look after this upcoming weekend’s games.

Denver (5-6)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta L by 11, W by 7 (-4)
Vs. Boston W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Florida L by 3, W by 4  (+1)
Vs. New York L by 3, W by 4 (+1)
Vs. Ohio W by 1, L by 1 (0)
Vs. Rochester L by 8 (-8)

Remaining:

Vs. Charlotte (7/23, 7/30)
Vs. Rochester (7/28)

To get in: Denver is still down, but definitely not out. If they get into the playoffs, they will absolutely have earned it. With winning the rest of their games, they will have reached 8 wins and have tiebreakers over Boston, Charlotte, Florida, New York, maybe Rochester, and maybe Ohio. Given that breakdown, their desired path is a little different than most.

Their best bet will be to have Rochester and Chesapeake take the top two spots, ideally by winning out with the exception of Rochester’s game against Denver. This puts Chesapeake at #1 and Rochester at #2. Denver would rather be tied with New York instead of Ohio since they are neutral in margin against the Machine. Give Ohio the win over New York here, and against Atlanta to eliminate the Blaze and put Ohio into the #3 spot.

New York would be at best 7-7 at this point, so their game against Boston doesn’t matter. Boston could beat both Florida and New York, get to 8-6, then lose a tiebreaker to Denver. No more Cannons. This leaves only Charlotte, but if Denver can beat them twice (the underlying need in all of this), then they have the tiebreaker over the Hounds as well. Voila! #4 seed goes to Denver.

Biggest threat: Charlotte. Two wins by the Hounds over the Outlaws, and they’re gone.

How do they miss it all?: You’ll read below how complicated the 7 win scenarios get, so losing a game throw Denver into that world…if they’re lucky. A loss to Rochester but be recoverable, but they would need serious help. Losing to Charlotte puts them in the same boat, but it would add much more stress to their season finale and win margins if it came down to that.

Atlanta (3-7)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Boston L by 1, L by 9 (-10)
Vs. Charlotte L by 6, L by 1 (-7)
Vs. Chesapeake L by  3 (-3)
Vs. Denver W by 11, L by 7 (+4)
Vs. Florida W by 12 (+12)
Vs. New York L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Ohio W by 1 (+1)

Remaining:

Vs. Chesapeake (7/21)
Vs. Florida (7/23)
Vs. Ohio (7/30)
Vs. Rochester (8/04)

To get in: So with their loss to Denver, the Blaze are in a race to seven wins. With only two teams currently at seven wins right now, this is still reasonable, but it will be much tougher. They can use those two teams (Chesapeake and Ohio) as buffers if needed, since they will have the tiebreaker over Ohio and will also have one over Chesapeake if they beat them by four goals in this week’s game.

The most straightforward way for the Blaze to keep playing is for New York and Charlotte to win out and get the #1 and #2 seeds, respectively. In doing so, Denver and Ohio get eliminated and Chesapeake goes to 7-7, assuming Atlanta beats them, ideally picking up a tiebreaker in the process.

That leaves Boston, Rochester, and Chesapeake fighting Atlanta for those last two spots. Rochester can reach seven wins be beating either Florida or Denver, but if they win both of those, then they get the three seed in this scenario. Even in a three way tie scenario, Rochester will probably win based on margin within the group since they destroyed Chesapeake by 14 points over their two games.

For Atlanta to get in, they need Boston to lose to Both New York and Florida to close out the season. That would leave the Cannons at 6-8, and looking from the outside in. With only Chesapeake remaining, if Atlanta can grab the tiebreaker this week, they can also pick up that fourth seed behind Rochester. This game will be huge.

Biggest threat: Pretty much everyone. As far as indirect opponents go, Boston winning a game probably knocks out the Blaze. New York and Charlotte both need to take care of their end to allow the Blaze in, so wins by Denver, Chesapeake Florida, Boston, Ohio, or Rochester can really mess things up for the Blaze.

How do they miss it all?: Last week in this section, I said “Lose one game, and they might be OK if it’s Denver or the Launch.” That’s still true, except they just used up that loss to Denver. One more loss and they’ll be out.

Officially Eliminated From Playoff Contention

Florida (2-8)

Schedule to date:

Vs. Atlanta L by 12 (-12)
Vs. Charlotte L by 2 (-2)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 4, L by 1 (-5)
Vs. Denver W by 3, L by 4 (-1)
Vs. New York L by 6, W by 1 (-5)
Vs. Ohio L by 2, L by 4 (-6)

Remaining:

Vs. Charlotte (7/22)
Vs. Atlanta (7/23)
Vs. Rochester (7/30)
Vs. Boston (8/06)

How’d they miss it all?: This makes me sad. When Florida beat New York to start the weekend, I really thought there was a chance that Florida could have made a run. They even looked alive with just a quick glance of records since so many teams are close together. Here’s how I can say with absolute certainty that Florida is mathematically eliminated at this point:

Since Florida has 8 losses, they would need to get the #4 seed with a 6-8 record. Ohio and Chesapeake both have seven wins, so we need to figure out how they can lock up two of the top three spots. That leaves New York, Charlotte, Boston, and Rochester all with six wins right now, which creates a five way tie. If the best Florida can do is six wins, that mean only one of these teams is allowed to have a tiebreaker over Florida and get to seven or more wins. Even with a 1-1 head to head record, New York’s 6 point win over the Launch makes them that lucky team Launch fans would be cheering for since they would own the margin tiebreaker. Fortunately for the Launch, none of these other three teams play each other again head to head.

For Boston, Charlotte, and Rochester to all lose out, the following games would have to play out like this:

Boston lose to both New York and Florida. Tiebreaker goes to Florida with 6-8 record.

Charlotte lose 2 games to Denver, 1 to Chesapeake, and lose to Florida by 3 or more. The 3 goals or more would give Florida a tiebreaker over the Hounds.

Rochester lose to New York, Florida, Denver, Atlanta. Florida wins the tiebreaker with a win over the Rattlers.

Florida would still have to beat Atlanta to hit the 6 win mark. New York would also play Chesapeake and Ohio, but those games are irrelevant from Florida’s perspective.

Where’s the problem? This all seems possible, right? Well, for all of this to happen, the Hounds will have lost two games to Denver, and Rochester will have dropped a game to them as well. Those three wins put the Outlaws at 8-6 and into the playoffs. If Denver loses any of those three games, that winning team knocks Florida out. Sorry, Florida.