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Rob Pannell New York Lizards vs Charlotte Hounds Jeff Melnik (39 of 47) MLL Playoff Scenarios

MLL Playoff Scenarios – Week 14

Here are the CRAZY MLL Playoff Scenarios post for Week 14! We saw one more team get eliminated.. and yet nobody has actually clinched a playoff spot.

Welcome to my MLL Playoff Scenarios post for Week 14! This past week saw one more team get eliminated.. and yet nobody has actually clinched a playoff spot. That leaves plenty to talk about! As you get ready for this week’s games, here are my picks for the most important issues in terms of 2016 postseason hopes.

MLL Playoff Scenarios – Week 14

#1 Thursday: Chesapeake at New York, 7:30 EDT

Starting off with a bang on Thursday are the two MLL Playoff Scenarios heavyweights. This is a game for the top seed in the playoffs based on current standings. Chesapeake clinches with a win. New York probably does as well, but we need other games to be decided before we can know for sure.

#2 Saturday: Charlotte at Denver, 7:00 EDT

Both teams are playing for their playoff lives. Charlotte is in a dog fight for those last playoff spots. This is Denver’s last game of the regular season. A loss could mean it’s their last of the year depending on their Thursday result.

#3 Thursday: Denver at Rochester, 7:30 EDT

Denver needs to start the weekend with a win in Rochester. Rochester can afford to lose this game, but really does not want to. They are coming off a really tough OT loss to New York that will be very, very fresh in their minds.

Denver v Atlanta 2016

#4 Saturday: New York at Boston, 6:30 EDT

Boston needs this win to stay alive. New York can clinch a playoff spot, and maybe the top seed, if they win on Thursday before this matchup. This is one of the best rivalries in the league and will not disappoint. Both teams are hungry.

#5 Saturday: Ohio at Atlanta, 7:00 EDT

Ohio can just keep winning to stay in the playoffs. They’ve been idle for a while, so this will be a good test to get geared up for the postseason. Atlanta is in a spiral right now, which also bodes well for the Machine.

#6 Saturday: Rochester at Florida, 7:30 EDT

If Rochester wins on Thursday, they can afford a loss here. Florida’s playing with house money and has been improving significantly later in the season and still playing hard. This will also mark the last home game for Casey Powell in Florida. I wouldn’t miss this one for that fact alone, MLL Playoff Scenarios aside.

Casey Powell

Current Playoff Standings:

#

Team

Wins Losses Win % Goals For Goals Against Margin

Last Week

1 Chesapeake 8 4 66.7% 168 158 +10

#1

2

New York 7 4 63.6% 175 180 -5

#2

3

Ohio 7 5 58.3% 178 157 +21

#5

4

Charlotte 7 5 58.3% 163 161 +2

#4

5 Rochester 6 5 54.5% 164

138

+26

#3

6

Denver 6 6 50.0% 175 184 -11

#7

7

Boston 6 6 50.0% 155 160 -5

#6

8

Atlanta 3 9 25.0% 167 182 -15

#8

9 Florida 3 9 25.0% 150 175 -25

#9

If It All Stays The Same – Currently in (with seeds):

#1 Chesapeake (8-4)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta W by 3, W by 5 (+8)
Vs. Boston L by 2, L by 3 (-5)
Vs. Charlotte W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Denver W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Florida W by 4, W by 1 (+5)
Vs. New York W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Ohio W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Rochester L by 4, L by 10 (-14)

Remaining:
Vs. Charlotte (8/06)
Vs. New York (7/28)

To get in: So the Bayhawks didn’t clinch yet, but they’re in phenomenal shape for this year’s MLL playoff scenariso, with only two games remaining. So… with only two games left here’s a look at what can happen this weekend for Chesapeake…

2015 Chesapeake Bayhawks 2015 Photo Credit Ben Ludeman

If they beat New York: They go to 9-4 and won’t be any worse than 9-5, meaning they’re in the playoffs. They won’t have a lock on first place still, since they could lose the head to head with Rochester and maybe Charlotte if the Hounds beat them by five or more goals. If they beat the Lizards and lose to the Hounds by less than 4, they are a two seed if Rochester wins out and gets some help. If Rochester loses another game, and they still have the Hounds tiebreaker in their last game of the year, they will clinch the top seed.

If they lose to New York: The damage from a loss would really matter on the score. If the Bayhawks lose by two or less, they still have a margin victory over the Lizards if that comes into play. A loss by four or more means the Lizards take the tiebreaker. No matter what, a loss puts New York ahead of Chesapeake in the standings. If they follow that loss to a Hounds team to end the season, a six loss team with tiebreaker losses to Rochester and Boston might come into play. Not a good place to be.

Biggest threat: New York and Charlotte. Chesapeake really needs to close out the season with a pair of wins. Both of these teams are dangerous. I could throw Boston in here as well, since they can really spoil the fun.

How do they miss it all?: The Bayhawks are at worst an 8-6 team. If they lose out, here’s what needs to happen to miss the playoffs:

  • Lose to both New York and Charlotte to the point where they also lose head to head tiebreakers.
  • Boston beats New York and Florida to reach 8-6
  • Rochester beats Denver AND either Florida or Atlanta to be 8-6 or 9-5
  • Ohio Loses to New York and beats Atlanta. Ohio goes to 8-6.
  • Charlotte beats Denver to reach 9-5.
  • If this all happens, Charlotte, New York, and maybe Rochester are all 9-5. Those are your 1-3 seeds with Boston, Ohio and Chesapeake at 8-6. Ohio wins the three way tiebreaker to be the fourth seed. If Rochester fell to 8-6, Chesapeake still gets the bump out because their huge loss margin vs. Rochester gets pulled in, meaning Rochester and Chesapeake get those final two spots. Boston matters here because Chesapeake beats Ohio head to head, but Boston being introduced creates the three way tiebreaker scenario, sending Chesapeake to the bottom.

#2 New York (7-4)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta W by 1 (+1)
Vs. Boston W by 1 (+1)
Vs. Charlotte W by 3 (+3)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Denver W by 3, L by 4 (-1)
Vs. Florida W by 4, L by 1 (+3)
Vs. Ohio L by 12 (-12)
Vs. Rochester W by 3, W by 1 (+4)

Remaining:
Vs. Boston (7/30)
Vs. Chesapeake (7/28)
Vs. Ohio (8/06)

To get in: This is a big weekend for the Lizards. Having two games against possible playoff opponents can make or break things. If they beat Chesapeake by more than three and Boston by anything, they’re in. Beating only one of them?

Greg Gurenlian New York Lizards MLL Championship 2015 2016 schedule week 9

Biggest threat: Ohio. That last game of the year could have a ton riding on it for both teams. Having such a bad loss to the Machine could really come back to bite the Lizards, even if they win (assuming a loss to someone else).

How do they miss it all?: Lose to Chesapeake and Ohio. If that happens along with Rochester winning their last three and Charlotte winning their last two, The Lizards are out. The Boston result wouldn’t even matter for either team. There are some other scenarios, but let’s stick with that one for now.

#3 Ohio (7-5)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Boston W by 7, W by 2 (+9)
Vs. Charlotte W by 7 (+7)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Denver L by 1, W by 1 (0)
Vs. Florida W by 2, W by 4 (+6)
Vs. New York W by 12 (+12)
Vs. Rochester L by 4, L by 3 (-7)

Remaining:
Vs. Atlanta (7/30)
Vs. New York (8/06)

To get in: Ohio is idle for ANOTHER weekend. It worked out well this past week as they jumped from fifth to third place without doing anything. If they beat Atlanta in their next game to reach 8-5, they’re probably in depending on how all the games between now and then go. If they beat bot Atlanta and New York, they’re set. If they beat only New York, they’re still probably fine.

Biggest threat: It’s still New York. That huge win margin earlier in the season might not matter as much as the L in their record. It only helps if New York is involved in a tiebreaker scenario so that game gets pulled in.

Ohio Machine vs Boston Cannons July 2015 MLL Semifinal Highlight Video

How do they miss it all?: The obvious answer is lose both of their games. If they lose to either Atlanta or New York, here’s how they miss:

  • Chesapeake is in over Ohio no matter what with an Ohio Loss
  • New York beats either Chesapeake or Boston to be in over Ohio.
  • Rochester wins two games
  • Charlotte wins out

#4 Charlotte (7-5)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta W by 6, W by 1 (+7)
Vs. Boston W by 3, W by 3 (+6)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 4 (-4)
Vs. Florida W by 2, W by 4 (+6)
Vs. New York L by 3 (-3)
Vs. Ohio L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Rochester W by 3 (+3), L by 4 (-1)
Vs. Denver L by 1 (-1)

Remaining:
Vs. Chesapeake (8/06)
Vs. Denver (7/30)

To get in: Losing to Denver was not a good thing, but the Hounds still hovered in the #4 spot. They do not control their own destiny, though. Even if they win out, they need Rochester or Ohio to lose a game. In a three way tiebreaker with those two teams, Charlotte’s out. In a head to head with either one individually, Charlotte’s out. If they lose again to Denver this weekend, they will really need help.

Biggest threat: The answer last week was Denver and you just saw why. Losing their first of two meetings put them in this ugly spot. Losing again will make it much worse.

New York Lizards vs Charlotte Hounds Jeff Melnik

How do they miss it all?: Rochester and Ohio winning out is the worst case scenario for Charlotte. If the Hounds lose one more game, they need Ohio or Rochester to lose two, otherwise they’re out.

Teams Still On The Hunt

If the season ended today, they’d be out of the playoffs, but it doesn’t, so they’re not.

Rochester (6-5)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Boston L by 1, L by 6 (-7)
Vs. Charlotte L by 3, W by 4 (+1)
Vs. Chesapeake W by 4, W by 10 (+14)
Vs. Denver W by 8 (+8)
Vs. New York L by 3, L by 1 (-4)
Vs. Ohio W by 4, W by 3 (+7)

Remaining:
Vs. Atlanta (8/04)
Vs. Denver (7/28)
Vs. Florida (7/30)

To get in: Rochester’s in a strange spot. Even though they’re fifth in the standings, they still control their own fate. If they win out, they’re in. But, all three of those games have “trap” written all over them.

Biggest threat: Boston. I’ll still say Boston. Ending up in a tiebreaker with them would not be good as it pulls in a huge negative differential when they’re favorable against everyone else. That only matters if the Ratz start losing, though.

How do they miss it all?: Right now, it will probably take two losses. Fortunately, two of those games are at home, which may play to their favor. The Denver game is the biggest of the three as the Outlaws are still in contention.

Denver (6-6)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta L by 11, W by 7 (-4)
Vs. Boston W by 4 (+4)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 7 (-7)
Vs. Florida L by 3, W by 4  (+1)
Vs. New York L by 3, W by 4 (+1)
Vs. Ohio W by 1, L by 1 (0)
Vs. Rochester L by 8 (-8)
Vs. Charlotte W by 1 (+1)

Remaining:
Vs. Charlotte (7/30)
Vs. Rochester (7/28)

To get in: Denver has put together a nice rally, but their last games are this weekend against two other teams fighting for playoff spots, which makes it that much tougher. Win both, and they go to 8-6 with a tiebreaker over Charlotte, Boston, and New York. They probably won’t have one over Rochester, so they could still be a threat. If Rochester loses a second game while either Ohio or Boston loses a game, Denver’s in.

Jeremy Sieverts New York Lizards vs Denver Outlaws Photo Credit Jeff Melnik July 9 2015

Biggest threat: Charlotte or Rochester. A loss to either one makes it nearly impossible to advance.

How do they miss it all?: Obviously two losses this weekend means they’re done. If they lose to just Rochester they can  be eliminated if:

  • Any two of New York, Ohio, or Charlotte win another game OR a win by one of those teams and two wins by Boston.
  • Chesapeake and Rochester would automatically be in ahead of Denver with that loss. If two of those other four teams reach 8 wins, Denver’s out.

A win over Rochester and loss to Hounds means elimination if:

  • If the Rochester win is by 8 or less: Another win by any two of Rochester, New York, or Ohio OR one of those teams and two wins by Boston.
  • If the Rochester win is by 9 or more: A win by New York AND Ohio OR one of those teams and two wins by Boston.
  • Chesapeake and Charlotte would automatically be ahead of Denver with the loss to Charlotte. Rochester, New York, Boston, or Ohio all eliminate Denver by reaching 8 wins.

Boston (6-6)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta W by 1, W by 9 (+10)
Vs. Charlotte L by 3, L by 3 (-6)
Vs. Chesapeake W by 2, W by 3 (+5)
Vs. Denver L by 4 (-4)
Vs. New York L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Ohio L by 7, L by 2 (-9)
Vs. Rochester W by 1, W by 6 (+7)

Remaining:
Vs. Florida (8/06)
Vs. New York (7/30)

To get in: Sitting idle may have worked for Ohio, but not for Boston. They are all the way to the bottom of eligible teams and need to dig themselves out with a little bit of help. They can beat New York and Florida to reach 8-6. Even though they win a head to head matchup with the Rattlers, they only win if it’s the two of them. A three team tiebreaker almost always pushes Rochester to the top. So ideally, Rochester wins out to reach 9-5 and eliminates Denver in the process.

Week 4
Photo Credit: Craig Chase

If Chesapeake can beat Charlotte and New York to claim the #1 seed, New York has their last game against Ohio to be either 7-7 or 8-6. Charlotte would be in the same spot with their Denver game unknown and Ohio is the same if they lose to Atlanta. If all four were at 8-6 (based on currently available scores), Ohio would be the three seed, and New York would be the four. This means that Boston fans want Ohio to win out to reach 9-5, knocking the Lizards to 7-7. If Charlotte then loses to Denver, Boston’s in.

Biggest threat: New York. The Lizards winning puts the Cannons fighting with four other teams for two playoff spots, and the tiebreakers are not good.

How do they miss it all?: Two losses means they’re out. A loss to New York means they’re out if:

  • Ohio AND Charlotte win a game OR:
  • Rochester or Denver win two games AND Ohio or Charlotte win a game OR:

If they win two games, they can still be eliminated if:

  • Chesapeake wins out
  • Rochester wins two games
  • Ohio wins out OR New York beats Ohio
  • Charlotte beats Denver

Officially Eliminated From Playoff Contention

Atlanta (3-9)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Boston L by 1, L by 9 (-10)
Vs. Charlotte L by 6, L by 1 (-7)
Vs. Chesapeake L by  3, L by 5 (-8)
Vs. Denver W by 11, L by 7 (+4)
Vs. Florida W by 12, L by 8 (+4)
Vs. New York L by 1 (-1)
Vs. Ohio W by 1 (+1)

Remaining:
Vs. Ohio (7/30)
Vs. Rochester (8/04)

How did they miss it all?: Atlanta has had an absolute nightmare to end their season. They lost their MVP candidate to injury, traded one of the most marketable rookies available away to Chesapeake after just two games for an All-Star that will miss at least the rest of this season with an injury, they fired their head coach who was responsible for sculpting their first year roster, and lost two games this weekend. I don’t want to dwell on all of that too much, but that is a rough go.

This is Atlanta’s first year with the Blaze, so hopefully they can find some cohesion with who is left on their roster, avoid major injury, and start looking ahead to next year. We can only hope that year two will be much more stable for the Blaze. At their peak, this is one of the most exciting teams in the league to watch. In their valley…they’re an expansion team.

Florida (3-9)

Schedule to date:
Vs. Atlanta L by 12, W by 8 (-4)
Vs. Charlotte L by 2, L by 4 (-6)
Vs. Chesapeake L by 4, L by 1 (-5)
Vs. Denver W by 3, L by 4 (-1)
Vs. New York L by 6, W by 1 (-5)
Vs. Ohio L by 2, L by 4 (-6)

Remaining:
Vs. Rochester (7/30)
Vs. Boston (8/06)

How’d they miss it all?: Florida was already eliminated going into this past weekend, but they are doing a great job of playing spoiler. They already took Atlanta down with them and have two other teams left who both want to make the playoffs. Pride is a great motivator.

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