When it comes to college athletics, data is king. Over the past decade, it seems like every sport has been looking for ways to incorporate advanced analytics to improve their performance. The addition of a shot clock in college lacrosse pushed the sport in this direction, similar to how the three-point shot did the same for basketball. Advanced metrics are great because they give us a clearer picture of how teams are actually performing, rather than just relying on the eye test.
Lacrosse Reference does an outstanding job of processing all the hard data into useful analytics. If you want to get lost down a rabbit hole, I highly recommend checking out their website.
However, for today’s article, I wanted to keep things simple. I’m going to break down Quint Kessenich’s Top 20 and look at the top 10 teams, comparing their offensive and defensive scoring margins. Lacrosse scoring margins is one of the easiest stats to track in any sport, but it tells an important story—especially for teams competing for a national championship. If you look at the last five national champions and their scoring margins, trends start to emerge. Here are the last five NCAA Division 1 lacrosse national champions alongside their offensive and defensive margins:
2024: Notre Dame (#1 Offense 15.6) | (#1 Defense 8.9) | (#1 Scoring Margin 6.7)
2023: Notre Dame (#3 Offense 15.5) | (#6 Defense 9.6) | (#1 Scoring Margin 5.8)
2022: Maryland (#1 Offense 17.6) | (#4 Defense 9.0) | (#1 Scoring Margin 8.6)
2021: Virginia (#3 Offense 14.6) | (#40 Defense 11.6) | (#12 Scoring Margin 2.9)
2019: Virginia (#7 Offense 14.1) | (#18 Defense 10.2) | (#4 Scoring Margin 3.8)
For the past three years, the team with the number one scoring margin has gone on to win the national championship. This shows an upward trajectory of what your scoring margin needs to be in order to succeed. Virginia got away with being ranked 12th in 2021 and 4th in 2019, but the sport has truly evolved with the implementation of the shot clock. After COVID, teams started to really find their groove with offenses structured around the shot clock, and I believe this shift is reflected in the number one scoring margins over the past three years.
At this point, it’s safe to say that you should comfortably be in the top five for both scoring offense and defense. With that baseline in mind, let’s take a look at Quint’s top 10 teams in his most recent poll and compare their scoring margins, starting with offense.
Offense
1) Cornell (#1 Offense 15.9)
9) Harvard (#3 Offense 15.2)
4) Syracuse (#5 Offense 14.9)
8) Notre Dame (#6 Offense 14.7)
7) North Carolina (#7 Offense 14.7)
5) Army (#11 Offense 13.6)
2) Ohio State (#13 Offense 13.3)
10) Penn State (#14 Offense 13.0)
3) Princeton (#21 Offense 12.1)
6) Maryland (#42 Offense 11.0)
There are a few surprises here. To see number three Princeton with one of the lower scoring offenses in the top 10 was not expected. The same goes for Ohio State—based on the eye test, I thought they’d crack the top five. Maryland being at the bottom didn’t surprise me, as their defense has really been carrying them all year long. The difference between scoring 12 goals and 14 goals in the national tournament is massive. So while these margins may seem tight on paper, in reality, they can make a world of difference.
Defense
5) Army (#1 Defense 6.1)
6) Maryland (#2 Defense 7.6)
7) North Carolina (#4 Defense 8.2)
4) Syracuse (#5 Defense 8.2)
2) Ohio State (#9 Defense 8.5)
8) Notre Dame (#14 Defense 9.1)
10) Penn State (#18 Defense 9.5)
1) Cornell (#19 Defense 9.7)
3) Princeton (#36 Defense 10.5)
9) Harvard (#53 Defense 12.0)
What a year it’s been for defense. Army holding teams to just 6.1 goals per game is astonishing. But don’t let that take away from Maryland’s 7.6 goals per game—an impressive feat as well. The more surprising takeaways here come from the bottom of the list. Harvard is certainly not going to get very far, even in the Ivy League tournament, allowing 12 goals per game. The same could be said for Princeton at 10.5 goals allowed. Cornell really stood out to me—having the #1 offense is great, but if you have the 19th best defense in the country, you might be cutting it close.
Total Scoring Margin
5) Army (Scoring Margin 7.5)
4) Syracuse (Scoring Margin 6.6)
7) North Carolina (Scoring Margin 6.5)
1) Cornell (Scoring Margin 6.2)
8) Notre Dame (Scoring Margin 5.6)
2) Ohio State (Scoring Margin 4.8)
10) Penn State (Scoring Margin 3.5)
6) Maryland (Scoring Margin 3.4)
9) Harvard (Scoring Margin 3.2)
3) Princeton (Scoring Margin 1.6)
Army leading the pack in lacrosse scoring margins wasn’t surprising to me. It’s been clear all year that their offense is explosive, but the defense really grounds the team. Some may say that because they play in the Patriot League, they aren’t facing stiff competition—which is reflected in their scoring margin. My response would be that according to Lacrosse Reference’s data, Army ranks eighth in the country in overall strength of record, showing that their schedule is tougher than it may seem. Army also managed to take down North Carolina, who falls to third in the scoring margin category.
This Army team is legit and could make a run at a national championship. However, don’t sleep on Syracuse, North Carolina, and Cornell, because at the end of the day, national championships are determined by play on the field, not analytics. Having great D1 lacrosse scoring margins is great, but are not the determining factor of who will win the game. However, if you want to make a run at a national championship, it certainly shows which teams are capable of doing so.
