Statistical mastermind Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg are back with their report Week 3 report breaking down ‘PLL By The Numbers‘. The new report includes an exclusive ranking each top points creator in the PLL. Justin Guterding, or “Guty” as the cool kids call him, is on top. Will it stay that way?
PLL By The Numbers, Week 3
Week three of Premier Lacrosse action took place at Seatgeek Stadium in Chicago, with Sunday’s game between Atlas and Chaos airing on national television. Players were hyped and performed at an all-time best.
Game Results:
- Chaos 12, Redwoods 11
- Whipsnakes 11, Archers 10
- Atlas 13, Chrome 12
As always, we broke down each game and the moves players made to cause critical outcomes. New this week: top points creator.
Points Created (New!)
We took things up a notch by tracking each goal and the person who dodged to create it. These players created the most points based on their dodges. If a dodge caused a two-pointer, the player gets two points for said dodge. Here’s how the top ten creators shook out.
| Rank | Team | Player |
Points Created
|
| 1 | Chrome | Justin Guterding | 10 |
| 2 | Whipsnakes | Matt Rambo | 7 |
| 3 | Chaos | Connor Fields | 6 |
| T3 | Chaos | Josh Byrne | 6 |
| 5 | Chrome | Jordan Wolf | 5 |
| T5 | Atlas | Connor Buczek | 5 |
| T5 | Archers | Tom Schreiber | 5 |
| T5 | Chrome | John Ranagan | 5 |
| 9 | Chrome | Ned Crotty | 4 |
| T9 | Chaos | Myles Jones | 4 |
| T9 | Archers | Marcus Holman | 4 |
| T9 | Archers | Ben McIntosh | 4 |
| T9 | Whipsnakes | Connor Kelly | 4 |
| T9 | Redwoods | Sergio Perkovic | 4 |
| T9 | Archers | Ryan Ambler | 4 |
| T9 | Redwoods | Sergio Salcido | 4 |
Faceoff Goals Generated
Trevor Baptiste is solidifying himself as the best face-off guy in the game. As if we didn’t see that coming.
| Team | Athlete | Goals Generated |
| Atlas | Trevor Baptiste | 4.06 |
| Whipsnakes | Joe Nardella | 2.29 |
| Chrome | Connor Farrell | 1.94 |
| Redwoods | Greg Gurenlian | 1.59 |
| Chaos | Thomas Kelly | -1.56 |
| Archers | Stephen Kelly | -2.29 |
LC Breakdowns
⇒ Archers
When a pole is on ball, the Archers are the safest defensively and also the best at making the shots from the crease less valuable. This week they meet arguably the best offense in the league in the Chaos.
Offense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.34 | 0.04 |
| Other | 0.27 | -0.04 |
| Crease | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| Two Point | 0.35 | 0.06 |
| Scoring Opp | Points Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.4 | 0.09 |
| Feed | 0.23 | -0.06 |
| Other | 0.22 | -0.11 |
| Power Play | 0.33 | -0.02 |
| Top | 0.17 | -0.12 |
| Wing-alley | 0.44 | 0.16 |
| Wing-top | 0.42 | 0.10 |
| X | 0.5 | 0.19 |
| Short or Long-stick | Points per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.41 | 0.10 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.37 | 0.06 |
Defense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Other | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Crease | 0.33 | 0 |
| Two Point | 0 | -0.22 |
| Scoring Opp | Points Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.26 | -0.02 |
| Feed | 0.29 | 0.01 |
| Power Play | 0 | -0.28 |
| Other | 0.27 | -0.03 |
| Top | 0.27 | -0.01 |
| Wing-alley | 0.17 | -0.12 |
| Wing-top | 0.29 | 0.01 |
| X | 0.26 | -0.04 |
| Short or Long-stick | Points per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.26 | -0.02 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.1 | -0.18 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.46 | 0.17 |
⇒ Atlas
Atlas is an interesting club to analyze because there are always so many unique scoring opportunities displayed. Overall performance was sporadic the first couple of weeks, but we saw Altas come up big with its first win last weekend by defeating Guterding’s Chrome. The Horns have become particularly good at both scoring and preventing goals from X.
Offense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.27 | -0.03 |
| Other | 0.22 | -0.07 |
| Crease | 0.33 | 0.01 |
| Two Point | 0.24 | -0.03 |
| Scoring Opp | Points Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.17 | -0.12 |
| Feed | 0.36 | 0.05 |
| Power Play | 0 | -0.28 |
| Other | 0.22 | -0.07 |
| Top | 0.24 | -0.08 |
| Wing-alley | 0.13 | -0.18 |
| Wing-top | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| X | 0.46 | 0.15 |
| Short or Long-stick | Points per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.10 | -0.19 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.39 | 0.10 |
Defense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Other | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Crease | 0.33 | 0 |
| Two Point | 0 | -0.22 |
| Scoring Opp | Pts Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| Feed | 0.49 | 0.20 |
| Other | 0.20 | -0.08 |
| Power Play | 0.33 | 0.01 |
| Top | 0.29 | 0.01 |
| Wing-alley | 0.60 | 0.29 |
| Wing-top | 0.25 | -0.08 |
| X | 0 | -0.28 |
| Short or Long-stick | Pts per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.32 | 0.03 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.13 | -0.15 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.33 | 0.02 |
⇒ Chaos
Chaos is doing better dodging against poles than anyone on the team dodges against short sticks. Credit goes to Connor Fields, third top points creator, for leading a stellar attack that gains .5 points per shot attempt from the crease. That’s with factoring in change of possession. We’ll see an interesting match-up this weekend when Chaos takes on Archers LC.
Offense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.34 | 0.05 |
| Other | 0.33 | -0.05 |
| Crease | 0.50 | 0.18 |
| Two Point | 0.43 | 0.16 |
| Scoring Opp | Pts Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.28 | 0.03 |
| Feed | 0.51 | 0.21 |
| Power Play | 0.31 | 0.03 |
| Other | 0.25 | -0.03 |
| Top | 0.26 | -0.02 |
| Wing-alley | 0.29 | -0.04 |
| Wing-top | 0.29 | 0 |
| X | 0 | -0.28 |
| Short or Long-stick | Pts per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.34 | 0.05 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.40 | -0.12 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.20 | -0.09 |
Defense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.32 | 0.02 |
| Other | 0.27 | -0.01 |
| Crease | 0.45 | 0.12 |
| Two Point | 0.13 | -0.13 |
| Scoring Opp | Pts Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Feed | 0.36 | 0.05 |
| Other | 0.21 | -0.05 |
| Power Play | 0.29 | -0.04 |
| Top | 0.17 | -0.12 |
| Wing-alley | 0.40 | 0.12 |
| Wing-top | 0.60 | 0.29 |
| X | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| Short or Long-stick | Pts per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.32 | 0.02 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.39 | 0.09 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.29 | 0 |
⇒ Chrome
Chrome may be 0-3, but they certainly have dodging threats like Justin Guterding who’s leading the league as top points creator. Ranagan and Wolf are also playing above the line. Still, Chrome take on Atlas this weekend and they could seriously use a win.
Offense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| Other | 0.25 | -0.02 |
| Crease | 0.36 | 0.04 |
| Two Point | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| Scoring Opp | Pts Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| Feed | 0.43 | 0.13 |
| Power Play | 0.10 | -0.18 |
| Other | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| Top | 0.28 | 0.04 |
| Wing-alley | 0.50 | 0.18 |
| Wing-top | 0.15 | -0.17 |
| X | 0.29 | 0.01 |
| Short or Long-stick | Pts per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.12 | -0.16 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.39 | 0.10 |
Defense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.31 | 0.03 |
| Other | 0.28 | -0.01 |
| Crease | 0.31 | 0.02 |
| Two Point | 0.44 | 0.17 |
| Scoring Opp | Pts Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.42 | 0.17 |
| Feed | 0.38 | 0.06 |
| Other | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| Power Play | 0.43 | 0.16 |
| Top | 0.21 | -0.05 |
| Wing-alley | 0 | -0.28 |
| Wing-top | 0.43 | 0.12 |
| X | 0.30 | 0 |
| Short or Long-stick | Pts per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.25 | -0.04 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.32 | 0.04 |
⇒ Redwoods
The Woods put up a solid fight against the Chaos last weekend and are starting to mesh well as a team. Veteran experience should lead them to future wins in OT. Expect positive changes in these statistical outcomes by this time next week. Redwoods just scooped up Jules Heningburg from the Whipsnakes, and he’s a serious play creator.
Offense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.26 | -0.03 |
| Other | 0.19 | -0.09 |
| Crease | 0.45 | 0.12 |
| Two Point | 0 | -0.21 |
| Scoring Opp | Pts Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.31 | 0.05 |
| Feed | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Power Play | 0.18 | -0.09 |
| Other | 0.22 | -0.07 |
| Top | 0.50 | 0.19 |
| Wing-alley | 0.25 | -0.03 |
| Wing-top | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| X | 0.06 | -0.25 |
| Short or Long-stick | Pts per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.26 | -0.03 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.17 | -0.13 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.38 | 0.08 |
Defense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.24 | -0.05 |
| Other | 0.18 | -0.11 |
| Crease | 0.41 | 0.09 |
| Two Point | 0.12 | -0.15 |
| Scoring Opp | Pts Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.15 | -0.175 |
| Feed | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| Power Play | 0.14 | -0.09 |
| Other | 0.20 | -0.04 |
| Top | 0.08 | -0.22 |
| Wing-alley | 0.36 | 0.03 |
| Wing-top | 0.31 | 0.03 |
| X | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| Short or Long-stick | Pts per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.24 | -0.05 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.18 | -0.12 |
⇒ Whipsnakes
With a one-goal win over Archers last weekend, the “Drip Snakes” are coming into their own, led by no. 2 points creator Matt Rambo. With so many Maryland alums on this team, the Snakes should be ready to strike against Atlas LC at Homefield Field this weekend.
Offense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.25 | -0.04 |
| Other | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Crease | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| Two Point | 0.13 | -0.11 |
| Scoring Opp | Points Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.31 | 0.02 |
| Feed | 0.29 | -0.01 |
| Power Play | 0.15 | -0.10 |
| Other | 0.5 | 0.17 |
| Top | 0.07 | -0.17 |
| Wing-alley | 0 | -0.17 |
| Wing-top | 0.43 | 0.14 |
| X | 0.16 | -0.12 |
| Short or Long-stick | Points per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.25 | 0.01 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.26 | 0.04 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.21 | 0.01 |
Defense
| Zone | Points per shot | Points above average |
| All | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| Other | 0.22 | -0.08 |
| Crease | 0.41 | 0.11 |
| Two Points | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| Scoring Opp | Pts Per Shot |
Pts above average
|
| Alley | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| Feed | 0.29 | 0 |
| Power Play | 0.30 | -0.05 |
| Other | 0.20 | -0.15 |
| Top | 0.33 | 0.06 |
| Wing-alley | 0.29 | 0.01 |
| Wing-top | 0.25 | -0.08 |
| X | 0.32 | 0.04 |
| Short or Long-stick | Pts per shot |
Pts above average
|
| No Dodge | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| Dodge on SS | 0.34 | 0.04 |
| Dodge on LS | 0.28 | 0.01 |
The two-point shot gets more valuable for each of these teams week after week, so you can count on seeing more attempts this weekend. All these lacrosse clubs are so evenly matched, it’s nearly absurd, and that might be the greatest thing about the PLL so far. Every player on the field is a threat.
BTN Methodology
Coming soon: a full guide to this series so you can learn more about the methodology powering every insight. Be sure to check out our Week 2 Report in the meantime!
Looking Ahead: Week 4
PLL clubs will compete at Homefield Field in Baltimore this weekend in front of what could be an even larger crowd than the players experienced in Chicago.
Can Guterding stay in the lead as top points creator in this league? Only time will tell.
Expect big hits, extra long faceoff scraps, and a few more isolated dodges than your used to – these games going to be good!
Upcoming Schedule:
- Redwoods vs. Chrome – Saturday, 1:00pm EST
- Atlas vs. Whipsnakes – Saturday, 7:30pm EST
- Chaos vs. Archers – Sunday, 3:30pm EST
Got a question about ‘PLL By The Numbers’?
We’re here to engage and dive deeper into the numbers if you are! It doesn’t matter if you’re Guterding himself, or just some kid from Kansas. Feel free to drop a comment below or contact Lacrosse All Stars.
