Are my weekly lacrosse Media Poll votes SERIOUS this week? They are! And it was anything but easy…
The last two week’s of Media Poll voting has been questioned publicly by everyone from Quint Kessenich on TV, to the In Your Face LaxCast guys, to the publisher of this very website, and beyond. For the last two weeks, this has been unquestionably fair. Teams were under-rewarded for big wins, and over-rewarded for preseason accolades.
What made it even harder was that very few games had really been played across the board, so certain teams looked like world beaters, while others looked like they have completely dropped off the face of the flat spinning planet known as D1 lacrosse. This week, we got a ton of GREAT results, and while there were a ton of upsets, and that makes our voting job harder, it also means we can ALL really take a fresh look at our Top 20, and start to make some sense of this crazy season of men’s college lacrosse.
I’m breaking down my votes this week into four tiered groups. I’ll slot teams into these tiers, and then rank the teams within each tier. I thought about what was important to me from an idealistic point of view, then found the teams that met those specific criteria.
Here is how I will find values for my Top 20 tiers:
Tier 1 – Undefeated, With A BIG Win – To be at the top, you must be undefeated, and you HAVE to own a big win over someone good. “Someone good” is inherently still subjective, but basically it means a legitimate Top 20 team. Anyone you could make a reasonable argument for. Did you beat a team like that and haven’t dropped a game? You’re at the top of the class, for now.
Tier 2 – Undefeated, No Big Wins/One Loss Teams With BIG Wins – Have you beaten a legit Top 20 team? Do you have ONE loss, and is it to a team in the group above (Tier 1)? Then you can make a showing in the Tier 2 group.
Tier 3 – One Loss Teams/Two Loss Teams With Big Wins – Maybe you’ve only lost game, maybe it was even close! But you haven’t won a “big” game yet. You’re here for now IF that loss was to a Tier 1 or Tier 2 team AND it was close. Or maybe you’ve lost two games, but you own a BIG time win? If you’ve beaten someone in Tier 2, but have two losses, you are still alive.
Tier 4 – NO Big Wins, Some Losses, Close Games – To fill out the Top 20, if needed, we look into teams with no signature big wins, multiple losses, but close games. These are potential teams at best.
Ok, get ready for a WACKY Top 20 Poll Vote from yours truly!
Are My Lacrosse Media Poll Votes SERIOUS?
Tier 1 Teams
1) Denver – I’ve had them here all season long, and with a 5-0 record, a returning core from their 2015 title, and two “top 10” wins in 2016, they deserve the top spot.
2) Notre Dame – 4-0 is rock solid, and a top 10 win over Maryland in California dispels any doubts about ND’s ability to win a slugfest. Was there any doubt? Now there is not.
3) Syracuse – I’m sticking with the Orange for now, as they have two top 20 wins and survived a tough Army game. It’s a solid, but not eye popping resume.
4) Yale – By virtue of having one less quality win (although it may have been higher quality) than Cuse, the Bulldogs go to #4. Could they be #3? SURELY!
5) Towson – Towson doesn’t blow your doors off at first, but they are 5-0, have a great win over Loyola, and are dominant at times. Very deserving of a Top 5 vote.
6) Harvard – Harvard has a HUGE win over Duke, where they looked like world beaters, but in this poll, according to results, that Duke win isn’t as big as any of the other wins the other Top 5 teams posses. Plus Harvard 3 other wins were ALL in OT. Nail biting is a disease! For me, Duke is now a Tier 4 team, with two losses and NO big wins. They dropped QUICKLY, and that keeps Harvard out of my top 5 group! Six ain’t bad!
Tier 2 Teams
7) Brown – Brown is undefeated, but their best win is over Stony Brook, and that’s not quite a “big” win just yet, even if I like Stony Brook. It could be, but Brown’s body of work (only 3 games and no top 15 wins) keeps them as the first Tier 2 team. Brown could move up into the top 5 quickly with a couple more wins.
8) Rutgers – Rutgers is sharing a boat with Brown right now, paddling down the stream. They are 5-0, and look to be rock solid, but lack any truly notable wins. Win at Stony Brook AND Princeton and Rutgers will keep on climbing.
9) Loyola – Rutgers is where I start to question my method a little bit, and Loyola only increases my doubt as to the efficacy of this voting strategy. At the same time, based on RECORD and PERFORMANCE, who is really better? Loyola’s only loss was to top 5 Towson and it was close. They’re still top 10 material when you look at it objectively and without bias.
10) Hofstra – BUT THEY LOST TO GEORGETOWN!!!! Yes, they did, but according to my voting values, this loss is really no worse than OSU’s loss, Villanova/BU/Lehigh/Marquette, etc. What moves Hofstra up is a good win over UNC.
11) Ohio State – That loss to UMass is tough to get over, as UMass doesn’t approach my Top 20 right now, but the win over Marquette is something… I think. This is where the subjective nature of “big” wins is the hardest. Is OSU’s win over Marquette really better than Villanova’s win over Penn State? On paper right now, yes, but in reality? I’m not sold.
Tier 3 Teams
12) Villanova – Nova could be flipped with OSU easily, all you have to do is believe Penn State is a better win than Marquette. It’s not a hard argument to make. Nova looks dangerous and could be 6-1 when they face Brown on March 29th.
13) Albany – After removing Albany from Top 20 last week, I put them in at #13 this week, which seems crazy, but some teams have lost, and Albany won, so they are fully back in the mix and discussion. They could be anywhere from 12 to 20, so while we know more, a lot of questions are yet to be answered.
14) UNC – The Hop wins saves UNC even though Hop isn’t in my Top 20 (they will be), and the OT loss to Denver keeps me believing. UNC is the highest ranked 2 loss teams in my poll, but they NEED to go 3-0 in their next three games to stay here. A loss to UMass, Manhattan, or Richmond would bump them out.
15) Stony Brook – A high-scoring game with Brown looks good, but nothing to bump them any higher. They could also be lower.
16) UPenn – A solid beginning for Penn, but they’re still on somewhat shaky footing with only a 3-game resume.
17) Lehigh – Lehigh is winning, and they look revamped. One loss doesn’t kill them, and the Mountain Hawks could climb as the season goes on.
18) Marquette – Marquette barely makes the criteria list, but they slide in at 18th. Will they stay there?
19) BU – You might not like BU, but you have to rank them in the top 20 somewhere! They are 5-1, and their loss to Hartford might not be all that bad. I like their wins over Providence, HPU, Navy, Canisius, and UMass Lowell. It’s consistency at the very least.
Tier 4 Team(s)
20) Duke – I have a bunch of teams here, and I really want to put about 4 of them in the poll, but I could only pick one, so I went with Duke.
Who Was Close?
Now, do I think Maryland is a Top 20 or higher team this YEAR? Absolutely, but according to their 1-2 record, I can’t really include them this week. It’s tough love, and while I really do think the Terps deserve my vote, a 5 goal win over 3-3 High Point, a 3-goal loss to Yale, and a 4-goal loss to Notre Dame just doesn’t give me a strong enough resume for them to be in the Top 20. Mercer has a very similar resume (lost to Towson and Duke, beat Siena and Detroit) and no one is putting them in the Top 20! Think about it, what has Maryland really done so far? Is just playing good teams enough to be a Top 20 team?
You could also say Hopkins, Princeton, Air Force, Army, Navy, St. Joe’s, Richmond, or even Monmouth in this last spot (or higher) and be able to make a strong argument, but NOT based on wins. Each of those teams has some positive looking results. For this week though, they simply don’t possess the wins and losses to make the poll.
At the end of the day, the 2016 poll now HAS to be about 2016 action, and now what we THINK of these teams. You can NOT pick Virginia this week. THREE losses, NO big wins. They are not top 20 material right now in any way, shape, or form. Could they be later on? Yes, but for now they are decidedly not. Sorry Peter R!
It has to be results oriented.
I weighted my keys to being ranked, grouped my teams into 4 Tiers, and stuck with my gut feeling on how to measure actual RESULTS. What do you think of my ridiculous Top 20?
