Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg are back with the ‘PLL By The Numbers‘ midseason metrics report. This new report includes top ten rankings, output charts, key insights, and players to watch as the second half of the inaugural season kicks off. We hope you enjoy!tatistical mastermind
Top 10 Rankings (as of 8.9.19)
A shooting analytic originally designed by Patrick McEwen, that counts shots on a goal that didn’t go in as a loss of possession and assumes league average on the probability you retain possession on off cage shots. We have been tracking all off-cage shots but I generally mark it as a save when the goalie catches it even if it looks off cage because it has the value of a save from a functional standpoint. Still our league average checked out to be pretty similar to the one used originally by McEwen so it shouldn’t alter the numbers.
Here are the top ten shooters that add the most to value while using the least number of possessions:
Now for the players who use the most possessions and get the least output. Here are the least efficient players in the Premier Lacrosse League:
For each goal, we tracked the person who dodged to create it. If a dodge created a two pointer, the player gets two points for the dodge. Here are the top ten players who have created the most points off of dodges:
We estimated the total number of goals each primary faceoff man has generated or lost for his team. The data is based on face-offs won and lost by estimating each position as worth 0.3 goals. Check out the rankings:
Key Insights & Players To Watch
The midseason metrics charted below represent the points a team is accumulating above or below average. Example: +.05 = 5% better than average. We base our numbers on the estimated value of a possession being 0.3 goals.
We also factored in the following on every shot attempt:
- The region where shot was taken
- Result of the shot
- Whether a short stick or a long stick is guarding the dodger
- The type of Dodge (if any) that created the space (the last dodge that happened)
Average is compared to an average shot, in general, in the league by factoring in possession retainment.
[jnews_element_header first_title=”Insights on Archers LC” header_type=”heading_5″]
- The Archers are you’re definition of an average PLL team with a zero goal differential
- Kevin Rice has been the limiting factor in the Archers attack in our goals added metric Rice has taken more goals away with wasted possessions than Manny and Holman have created combined
- Keep your eyes on Scott Ratliff when the Archers take on Atlas this Sunday
[jnews_element_header first_title=”Insights on Atlas LC” header_type=”heading_5″]
- Most of the Atlas success dodging comes from midfielders look for Ratliff to be the key in locking that down
- The Atlas are getting ROASTED behind the two point arc, in the PLL defense is about more than defending the crease, the Atlas are allowing .43 points per shot behind the arc
- If you estimate the value of a possession as .3 Baptiste has added ten goals to his team
- Buczek’s monster game jumped him from the bottom of our shooting efficiency rating to the middle of the pack
- Keep your eyes on Trevor Baptiste this Sunday against the Archers
The Atlas are arguably the weakest team outside of their FOGO, and will need the extra possessions to remain competitive. We believe Baptiste is the current MVP of the league, because the quantity of possessions he gains outweighs the amount of goals added by any shooter by a very large amount.
[jnews_element_header first_title=”Insights on Chaos LC” header_type=”heading_5″]
- The Chaos have the most dominant offense, and they are making great use of the most valuable shots in the game (2’s and crease)
- The Chaos have such talented attackmen that they are doing as well dodging against poles as short sticks
- The talent on this offense extends beyond, their attack and even beyond their short sticks as a whole. Jarrod Neumann is currently adding the second most goals to his team in our Goals Added stat.
- Keep your eyes on Jarod Neumann when Chaos takes on Redwoods on Saturday
Not only is Neumann going to have to most likely help lock down Heningburg and the rest of the Woods attack. He is adding the most points to his team per shot, and is the biggest threat in the league in transition.
[jnews_element_header first_title=”Insights on Chrome LC” header_type=”heading_5″]
- I have no statistical way to prove this but Chrome must be the best team to go winless through the first half of their season in any professional sport. They are not far behind the other five teams in the league. They have a zero goal differential.
- The Chrome are getting burned behind the arc. Allowing .43 points per shot
- The Chrome are not without scorers despite their records. Guterding, Manley, Ranagan, and MacIntosh, are a shooting a goal above average in goals added. Note that Wolf is in the bottom ten in goals added
- The Chrome are creating a lot of goals off the dodge. Guterding, Crotty, Wolf and Ranagan are not far behind in Points Created by dodges
- Keep your eyes on Justin Guterding when Chrome faces the Whipsnakes this Saturday
Guterding is one of the most underrated attackmen in the league, it’s not just what he creates for himself, but what he creates for others. He’s a phenomenal dodger.
[jnews_element_header first_title=”Insights on Redwoods LC” header_type=”heading_5″]
- The Redwoods offense has looked in sync the past couple weeks it appears that Jules Heningburg is the missing piece they needed
- The Redwoods have not utilized the shorter two point line at all. Averaging just .07 points per shot
- The Redwoods are doing better when they dodge from the top then anywhere else
- Keep your eyes on Garrett Epple when the Redwoods take on Chaos
The best offense in the league meets the best defense in the league. Epple has been a disruptive monster when it comes to causing turnovers. He will be key in slowing down this Chaos offense
[jnews_element_header first_title=”Insights on Whipsnakes LC” header_type=”heading_5″]
- In the same sense that the Chrome aren’t that much worse than the other teams. The Whipsnakes aren’t that much better than average – The parity in this league is nuts
- The Whipsnakes are one of the few teams doing better defending dodges on the wing as opposed to up top
- Keep your eyes on Matt Rambo when the Whipsnakes take on Chrome
This offense runs through Rambo he is second in goals created, and is an MVP candidate shooting 1.73 goals above average.
We hope you enjoyed our midseason metrics report!
Got a question about ‘PLL By The Numbers’?
We’re here to engage and dive deeper into the numbers if you are! It doesn’t matter if you’re Guterding himself, or some kid from Kansas. You’re always welcome to drop a comment below or contact Lacrosse All Stars.