pll by the numbers midseason metrics
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PLL By The Numbers: Looking Back To Week 6, Ahead To Week 7

Editor’s Note: Sports analytics pioneer Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg put their heads together to create advanced metrics for the field game. Their first full-season test subject: the PLL. Because, well, to them, standard stats are boring. Welcome to ‘PLL By The Numbers’.

We’re taking a look ahead to Week 7 of the Premier Lacrosse League, with some key stats to watch for. Let’s dive into the numbers.

Week 7 Schedule

Sat., July 27 5 p.m. Atlas vs. Redwoods NBC Sports Gold
Sat., July 27 8 p.m. Chaos vs. Whipsnakes NBCSN*
Sun., July 28 4 p.m. Archers vs. Chrome NBC Sports Gold

PLL By The Numbers – Week 7

Goals Added 

A shooting analytic originally designed by Patrick McEwen, that counts shots on a goal that didn’t go in as a loss of possession and assumes league average on the probability you retain possession on off cage shots. We have been tracking all off cage shots but I generally mark it as a save when the goalie catches it even if it looks of cage because it has the value of a save from a functional standpoint. Still our league average checked out to be pretty similar to the one used originally by McEwen so it shouldn’t alter the numbers. Here is the top ten in goals added, the shooters that add the most to their team while using the least possessions.

  1. J. Byrne Chaos-+4.62
  2. J. Neumann Chaos +4.19
  3. E. Law Atlas   +4.14
  4. C. Fields Chaos +3.16
  5. M. Thompson Chaos +3.15
  6. J. Ranagan Chrome+ 2.80
  7. J. Froccaro Chaos +2.76
  8. D. Class Chaos  +2.55
  9. J. Heningburg Redwoods +2.53
  10. M. Holman Archers +2.52

Here are the least efficient players in the league the players that use the most possessions and get the least output 

  1. K. Harrison Redwoods -5.41
  2. J. Sankey Redwoods -5.13
  3. K. Rice Archers -5.01
  4. J. Locasio Whipsnakes -2.96
  5. D. Snider Whipsnakes -2.88
  6. J. Wolf Chrome -2.72
  7. C. Buczek Atlas -2.59 
  8. R. Brown Atlas- -2.45
  9. M. Jones Chaos -2.42
  10. D. Maltz -1.95

Points Created 

On each goal we tracked the person who dodged to create it. Here are the players who have created the most points based on their dodges; if your dodge created a two pointer you get two points for the dodge, here’s the top ten

  1. J. Guterding Chrome- 15
  2. M. Rambo Whipsnakes- 13
  3. C. Fields Chaos- 11

T3. J. Wolf Chrome- 11

  1. S. Salcido Redwoods- 10 

T5. N. Crotty Chrome- 10

  1. J. Ranagan Chrome – 9

T8. S. Perkovic Redwoods- 8

T8. T. Schreiber Archers- 8

T8. M. Jones Chaos- 8

T8. M. Kavanagh Redwoods- 8

T8. P. Rabil Atlas- 8

T8. C. Kelly Whipsnakes- 8

T8. B. Reeves Whipsnakes- 8 

Faceoff Rankings 

We estimated the amount of goals each teams primary face off guy generated or lost for his team based on face offs won/lost (Estimating a position as worth .3 goals)

  1. T. Baptiste Atlas +8.82 Goals
  2. J. Nardella Whipsnakes +3.35 Goals
  3. C. Farrell Chrome +1.24 Goals
  4. T. Kelly Chaos +.88 Goals
  5. G. Gurenlian Redwoods -.35 Goals 
  6. S. Kelly Archers -1.59 Goals

On each shot we also tracked:

  1. The region where shot was taken
  2. Result of the shot.
  3. Whether a short stick or a long stick is guarding  the dodger
  4. The type of Dodge (if any) that created the space (The last dodge that happened)

Glossary

Possible Regions Possible Results SS or LS Type of Dodge/How Scoring Opportunity was generated 
Crease Goal LS= A Pole  Alley- A dodge from the sideline 
2pt Save SS= A Short Stick Top- A topside dodge that is north south
Other Off Cage Wing- Top- An east/west dodgethat goes topside 
Botched Backup Wing- Alley- An east/west dodge where the dodger goes underneath
2 pt Power Play- A power play, Duh
Feed- No dodge happened, but ball movement did 
Other- Nothing of note happened to create this shot

(Left and right are relative to offense)

 

A sample of the data is shown below.

Zone  Dodge  SS or LS Result
Archers Off Chrome Def 4 Alley SS OC
2 X SS Gol
6 Top SS Gol
5 Top SS OC
6 Feed N/A Sav
2 X LS OC
3 X SS Sav
2 X SS OC

 

Potential Errors/Flaws

No metric is perfect, so we want you guys to know what isn’t accounted for so you can combine it with the eye test and make informed decisions 

  1. We don’t track turnovers, we focus solely on scoring opportunities
  2. Dodging Gray Areas- Some dodges, mainly ones with roll backs or redodges can be hard to track. We do our best to define everything, but every week I think about a dodge I classified as one thing that could be another thing.
  3. Human Error/Data entry

Outputs

Each metric is the points above or below average ex +.05= 5% better than average. We base our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3. Average is compared to an average shot in general in the league

Archers

Offense

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Other -4%
Crease 1%
Two Point 0%

 

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) 
Alley -5%
Topside -11%
Wing- Alley 9%
Wing- Top 1%
X -9%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
LS -10%
SS -3%

Defense 

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Other -4%
Crease 11%
Two Point -5%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Alley 1%
Topside -1%
Wing- Alley 19%
Wing- Top -5%
X 7%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
LS -1%
SS 9%

 

  • The Archers are you’re definition of an average PLL team with a -2 goal differential 

 

  • Kevin Rice has been the limiting factor in the Archers attack in our goals added metric Rice has taken more goals away with wasted possessions than Manny and Holman have created combined 

 

 

Key Player vs. Chrome- M. Holman

The Chrome got hot offensively last week and probably will again. The Archers will look to counter in their settled half field and that will need to come from the leader of their attack.

Atlas

Offense

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Other -7%
Crease 7%
Two Point -6%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)  
Alley -8%
Topside -14%
Wing- Alley 16%
Wing- Top -1%
X 0%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
LS -9%
SSb 2%

Defense

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Other -3%
Crease 1%
Two Point 20%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Alley -11%
Topside 5%
Wing- Alley -18%
Wing- Top 3%
X -6%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
LS -8%
SS 0%
  • The Atlas are getting ROASTED behind the two point arc, in the PLL defense is about more than defending the crease, allowing .47 points per shot.
  • Fun side note Paul Rabil is currently shooting below average in our Goals Added metric. 

Key Player vs. Redwoods- T. Baptiste

The Atlas are arguably the weakest team outside of their FOGO, and will need the extra possessions to remain competitive. We believe Baptiste is the current MVP of the league, because the quantity of possessions he gains outweighs the amount of goals added by any shooter by a very large amount.

Chaos

Offense

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Other 0%
Crease 15%
Two Point 20%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Alley 9%
Topside -2%
Wing- Alley 15%
Wing- Top 5%
X -2%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
LS 5%
SS 2%

Defense 

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Other -2%
Crease 8%
Two Point -8%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Alley -1%
Topside -4%
Wing- Alley -7%
Wing- Top -10%
X 1%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
LS -2%
SS -4%
  • The Chaos have the most dominant offense, and they are making great use of the most valuable shots in the game (2’s and crease)
  • The Chaos have such talented attackmen that they are doing better dodging against poles than short sticks
  • The talent on this offense extends beyond, their attack and even beyond their short sticks as a whole. Jarrod Neumann is currently adding the second most goals to his team in our Goals Added stat.
  • According to our goals added metric the Chaos have six of the ten most efficient shooters in the league

Key Player vs. Whipsnakes- Josh Byrne  

Byrne, is an overlooked MVP candidate. He is first in Goals Added, and one goal created away from being in the top ten in goals created.

Chrome

Offense

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Other -1%
Crease 3%
Two Point 5%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Alley -2%
Topside 1%
Wing- Alley -10%
Wing- Top -11%
X 5%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
LS -8%
SS 6%

Defense 

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Other -1%
Crease 6%
Two Point 16%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Alley -2%
Topside 1%
Wing- Alley -10%
Wing- Top -11%
X 5%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
LS -6%
SS 0%
  • The Chrome are getting burned behind the arc. Allowing .4 points per shot.
  • Chrome is much better than their 1-5 record indicates.
  • The Chrome are not without scorers despite their records. Guterding, Manley, Ranagan, Crotty, MacIntosh, are a shooting a goal above average in goals added. Note that Wolf is in the bottom ten in goals added

Key Player vs. Archers- Jordan MacIntosh

Wolf is taking bad shots but he’s doing great at creating shots, his two man game with MacIntosh has been key. 

Redwoods

Offense

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Other -6%
Crease 7%
Two Point -18%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Alley 13%
Topside 8%
Wing- Alley -12%
Wing- Top -10%
X -17%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
LS -9%
SS 2%

Defense 

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Other -10%
Crease 4%
Two Point -4%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Alley -10%
Topside -16%
Wing- Alley -1%
Wing- Top 11%
X -4%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
LS -7%
SS -2%
  • The Redwoods offense has looked in sync the past couple weeks it appears that Jules Henningburg is the missing piece they needed.
  • Kyle Harrison is the most inefficient player in the league adding a -5.41 goals to the team. The second most inefficient is Joey Sankey at 5.13
  • The Redwoods are doing better when they dodge from the top then anywhere else.

Key Player vs. Whipsnakes Jules Henningburg –

Heningburg is the only player in the league yet to lose a game. He plays fast and he plays efficiently.  

Whipsnakes

Offense

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Other -6%
Crease 4%
Two Point 5%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
Alley -6%
Topside -8%
Wing- Alley -2%
Wing- Top 9%
X -3%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
LS -1%
SS -5%

Defense 

Shot Results by Region

Region % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Other -6%
Crease 5%
Two Point -6%

Dodging Results 

Dodge % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession) MINUS IS GOOD FOR DEFENSE
Alley 13%
Topside 2%
Wing- Alley -2%
Wing- Top 9%
X -3%

Results Based on Dodging Short Stick or Pole 

LS or SS % Above/Below Average (Factoring in Possession)
LS -8%
SS 4%
  • In the same sense that the Chrome aren’t that much worse than the other teams. The Whipsnakes aren’t that much better than average. The parity in this league is nuts

Key Player vs. Chaos- B. Young

Young will be vital in slowing down the most efficient offense in the league this week.