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PLL By the Numbers – Week 2

Getting better every week, the PLL is blowing us away with the level of athleticism. To match the effort on the field, we are putting in the hours tracking all of the hardwork and how it translates of goals scored or given up.

Editor’s Note: Sports analytics pioneer Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg put their heads together to create advanced metrics for the field game. Their first full-season test subject: the PLL. Because, well, to them, standard stats are boring. Welcome to ‘PLL By The Numbers’.

A bit quicker this week and we promise ‘PLL By The Numbers’ is only getting better from here. One piece of proof: Face-off Rankings! Not just looking at wins versus losses off the whistle, but how a team uses those ensuing possessions. Keep letting us know what you like, what you want to see, what might be confusing and all other feedback. It’s only going to help us all get better, and if we’re lucky, the level of play too.

We’ve had a lot to say about the action this week, so let’s dive straight into some numbers.

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PLL Week 2 Results – New York

  • Whipsnakes 12, Chrome 11
  • Archers 10, Redwoods 9
  • Chaos 18, Atlas 13

PLL Week 3 Schedule – Chicago

  • Redwoods vs Chaos – Saturday, 2 P.M. on NBCSN
  • Archers vs Whipsnakes – Saturday, 5 P.M. on NBCSN
  • Atlas vs Chrome – Sunday, 2:30 P.M. on NBC

PLL By The Numbers: Week 2

NEW! PLL By The Numbers Face-off Rankings

Starting in Week 2, we calculated the amount of goals each face-off athlete generated, or lost, for his team based on face-offs won/lost and goals scored on the concurring possession.

Team Athlete Goals Generated
Atlas Trevor Baptiste 2.65
Chrome Connor Farrell 2.47
Whipsnakes Joe Nardella 1.06
Redwoods Greg Gurenlian 0.88
Chaos Thomas Kelly -1.41
Archers Stephen Kelly -1.59

Archers

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.25 -0.08
2 0.55 0.24
3 0.33 0.04
4 0.4 0.12
5 0.25 -0.04
6 0.14 -0.18
7 0.4 0.09
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.4 0.12
Feed 0.22 -0.08
Other 0.4 0.09
Power Play 0.5 0.15
Top 0.22 -0.05
Wing-alley 0.75 0.4
Wing-top 0.4 0.09
X 0.44 0.12
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.26 -0.02
Dodge on SS 0.1 -0.18
Dodge on LS 0.46 0.17

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.25 -0.01
2 0.41 0.08
3 0.38 0.09
4 0.29 0.01
5 0.17 -0.08
6 0.25 -0.05
7 0 -0.22
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.25 -0.01
Feed 0.33 0.07
Power Play 0 -0.28
Other 0.14 -0.13
Top 0.43 0.16
Wing-alley 0.2 -0.11
Wing-top 0.29 -0.01
X 0.32 0.02
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.26 -0.02
Dodge on SS 0.1 -0.18
Dodge on LS 0.46 0.17

Atlas

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.2 -0.11
2 0.38 0.04
3 0.25 -0.05
4 0.22 -0.09
5 0.2 -0.10
6 0.22 -0.09
7 0.12 -0.12
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.18 -0.12
Feed 0.38 0.08
Power Play 0.33 0.01
Other 0 -0.27
Top 0.10 -0.23
Wing-alley 0.25 -0.1
Wing-top 0.5 0.24
X 0.5 0.15
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.3 0.02
Dodge on SS 0.12 -0.15
Dodge on LS 0.28 -0.03

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.4 0.09
2 0.48 0.16
3 0.09 -0.18
4 0.10 -0.16
5 0.19 -0.12
6 0.09 -0.16
7 0.75 0.49
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.33 0.06
Feed 0.46 0.19
Other 0.18 -0.1
Power Play 0.33 -0.02
Top 0.31 0.01
Wing-alley 0 -0.17
Wing-top 0.21 -0.11
X 0 -0.29
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.3 0.01
Dodge on SS 0.12 -0.15
Dodge on LS 0.22 -0.06

Chaos

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.6 0.25
2 0.58 0.26
3 0.17 -0.03
4 0.11 -0.12
5 0.27 -0.07
6 0.17 -0.09
7 0.53 0.26
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.33 0.09
Feed 0.5 0.21
Power Play 0.25 -0.1
Other 0.43 0.08
Top 0.36 0.07
Wing-alley 1 0.65
Wing-top 0.36 0.03
X 0 -0.29
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.29 0
Dodge on SS 0.35 0.07
Dodge on LS 0.23 -0.06

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.5 0.2
2 0.42 0.1
3 0.25 -0.05
4 0.12 -0.16
5 0.29 0.03
6 0.2 -0.08
7 0.14 -0.13
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.23 -0.06
Feed 0.36 0.05
Other 0.18 -0.09
Power Play 0.29 -0.04
Top 0.17 -0.12
Wing-alley 0.5 0.15
Wing-top 0.33 0.1
X 0.33 0.04
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.29 0.
Dodge on SS 0.35 0.07
Dodge on LS 0.23 -0.06

Chrome

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.25 -0.01
2 0.33 0.03
3 0.43 0.13
4 0.17 -0.09
5 0.15 -0.11
6 0.4 0.12
7 0.18 -0.05
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.22 -0.07
Feed 0.38 0.09
Power Play 0 -0.35
Other 0 -0.29
Top 0.29 0.05
Wing-alley 0 -0.26
Wing-top 0 -0.3
X 0.31 0.03
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.33 0.05
Dodge on SS 0.27 -0.02
Dodge on LS 0.28 0.01

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.25 -0.08
2 0.36 0.07
3 0.2 -0.04
4 0.29 0.01
5 0.35 0.08
6 0.3 -0.03
7 0.44 0.2
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.5 0.24
Feed 0.43 0.12
Other 0.33 0.04
Power Play 0.75 0.45
Top 0.12 -0.13
Wing-alley 0 -0.35
Wing-top 0.67 0.32
X 0.23 -0.06
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.33 0.05
Dodge on SS 0.27 -0.02
Dodge on LS 0.28 0.01

Redwoods

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.22 -0.07
2 0.42 0.10
3 0 -0.29
4 0.3 -0.01
5 0.16 -0.10
6 0.08 -0.19
7 0 -0.22
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.31 0.04
Feed 0.18 -0.09
Power Play 0.22 -0.07
Other 0.14 -0.13
Top 0.5 0.19
Wing-alley 0.2 -0.11
Wing-top 0.22 -0.09
X 0 -0.29
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.25 -0.06
Dodge on SS 0.28 -0.03
Dodge on LS 0.29 0.01

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.17 -0.15
2 0.44 0.12
3 0 -0.23
4 0.4 0.07
5 0.44 0.12
6 0.08 -0.22
7 0 -0.25
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.14 -0.17
Feed 0.23 -0.06
Power Play 0.12 -0.13
Other 0 -0.35
Top 0.14 -0.18
Wing-alley 0.6 0.25
Wing-top 0.4 0.09
X 0.33 0.01
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.25 -0.06
Dodge on SS 0.28 -0.03
Dodge on LS 0.29 -0.04

Whipsnakes

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.4 0.09
2 0.35 0.06
3 0.11 -0.14
4 0.17 -0.15
5 0.29 0.04
6 0.21 -0.07
7 0.18 -0.07
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.32 0.04
Feed 0.33 0.02
Power Play 0.5 -0.04
Other 0.2 0.2
Top 0.09 -0.13
Wing-alley N/A N/A
Wing-top 0.57 0.25
X 0.17 -0.11
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.3 -0.01
Dodge on SS 0.27 -0.02
Dodge on LS 0.3 0.04

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
1 0.25 -0.05
2 0.42 0.11
3 0 -0.23
4 0.25 -0.03
5 0.19 -0.09
6 0.25 -0.01
7 0.27 0
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.29 0.04
Feed 0.3 0.01
Power Play 0.5 0.15
Other 0.25 -0.1
Top 0.39 0.13
Wing-alley 0.5 0.15
Wing-top 0.17 -0.15
X 0.18 -0.1
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
No Dodge 0.3 0.01
Dodge on SS 0.27 -0.02
Dodge on LS 0.3 0.04

What We Learned From PLL By The Numbers For Week 2

  • The Super Bowl face-off battles is scheduled to begin at 2:30 P.M. ET on NBC. Expect an amazing (read: epic) battle at the face-off X between NCAA legend Trevor Baptiste and the newcomer, DII linebacker Connor Farrell. This is the future of the game in the flesh.
  • On the topic of facing-off, Greg Gurenlian has the odds in his favor to win +70% this weekend, time for the Redwoods to push it.
  • The Archers and Chaos are consistently capitalizing on their opportunities from the crease gaining over half a point per shot. Moral: keep feeding the crease!
  • Chaos’s two-point shot rampage shook up our data and made two’s look a little better after the lack of action in Week 1.
  • After two weeks, what’s clear for all of these teams: Any spot on the field is a good place to dodge from.
  • Isolating a short stick is helpful, but no one’s saying you can’t dodge on a pole. In fact, the Chaos and the Whipsnakes have seen more success by starting the charge on a long stick.
  • The Archers are the most vulnerable team when a short stick is isolated. There’s exceptions, but all of the shorties are seeing a lot of pressure considering how dangerous the long poles are.
  • Look for that north-south alley dodge by Paul Rabil to be a difference maker against Chrome. The Chrome have been overly focused on taking away top-side and Rabil has to be dying for the Atlas to get a W in the league he built.

What We Look For In PLL By The Numbers

On each shot we tracked:

  1. The “zone” where a shot was taken
  2. Result of the shot
  3. Whether a short stick or a long stick was guarding the shooter
  4. The type of dodge (if any) to create shot

Zones: 1-3 extend from the crease to about 8 yards out. 4-6 fill to the 2-point line. 7 is anything beyond the arc.

PLL Zones

Possible Results: Goal, Save, Off-Cage, Botched Backup, 2 Pointer

SS or LS: Short-stick or long-stick

Scoring Opportunities: Alley – a north-south dodge away from the middle; Top – a north-south dodge from the topside; Wing-top – a high east-west dodge going topside; Wing-alley – a low east-west dodge going underneath; Power Play – man-up opportunity; Feed – No dodge, but ball movement occurred; X – Dodge from behind the goal.

Each metric shows the points above or below average, which is 0. Ex: if a score reads “+.05” than the team is 5% better than average in that category. We base all of our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3.

Also note, a “+” on defense is a bad thing, because you’re allowing points.

Potential Errors/Flaws in PLL By The Number’s Methodology

No metric is perfect, we want you guys to know what isn’t accounted for so you can combine it with the eye test and make informed decisions

  1. Turnovers – We don’t track turnovers, we focus solely on scoring opportunities
  2. Dodging Gray Areas – Some dodges, mainly ones with roll backs or re-dodges can be harder to track. We do our best to define everything, but it’s easy to second guess every classification.
  3. Human Error/Data entry – no one is perfect, but we’re doing our best!
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