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2019 premier lacrosse league season

PLL By the Numbers – Week 4

Editor’s Note: Sports analytics pioneer Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg put their heads together to create advanced metrics for the field game. Their first full-season test subject: the PLL. Because, well, to them, standard stats are boring. Welcome to ‘PLL By The Numbers’.

We’ve had a lot to say about the action this week, so let’s dive straight into some numbers.


PLL Week 4 Results – Baltimore

  • Redwoods 13, Chrome 11
  • Whipsnakes 15, Atlas 10
  • Chaos 14, Archers 13

PLL Week 5 Schedule – Atlanta

  • Atlas vs Archers – Friday, 8:00 P.M. on NBCSN
  • Chaos vs Chrome – Saturday, 1 P.M. on NBCSN
  • Redwoods vs Whipsnakes – Sunday, 4 P.M. 2:30 P.M. on NBC

PLL By The Numbers: Week 4

NEW! PLL By The Numbers Goals Created

On each goal we tracked the person who dodged to create it. Here are the players who have created the most points based on their dodges; if your dodge created a two pointer you get two points for the dodge. 

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1. J. Guterding – Chrome- 12
2. M. Rambo – Whipsnakes- 11
3. C. Fields – Chaos- 8
4. J. Byrne – Chaos- 7
5. J. Ranagan – Chrome – 6
T5. B. Reeves – Whipsnakes- 6
T5. T. Schreiber – Archers- 6
T5. C. Buczek – Atlas- 6
T5. S. Perkovic – Redwoods- 6
10. N. Crotty – Chrome – 5
T10. M. Jones – Chaos – 5
T10. M. Holman – Archers – 5
T10. J. Wolf – Chrome – 5
T10. P. Rabil – Atlas – 5
T10. R. Ambler – Archers – 5
T10. M. Chanenchuk – Whipsnakes – 5

Face-off Rankings

Starting in Week 2, we calculated the amount of goals each face-off athlete generated, or lost, for his team based on face-offs won/lost and goals scored on the concurring possession.

Team Athlete Goals Generated
Atlas Trevor Baptiste 6.71
Chrome Connor Farrell 1.76
Redwoods Greg Gurenlian 1.76
Whipsnakes Joe Nardella 1.06
Chaos Thomas Kelly -1.06
Archers Stephen Kelly -2.47

Archers

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.32 -0.05
Crease 0.25 0.13
Two Point 0.44 0.15
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.01 0.29
Topside -0.14 -0.13
Wing-alley 0.06 0.13
Wing-top 0.01 0.32
X 0.12 0.43
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.02 0.32
Dodge on LS 0.04 0.35

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.24 -0.03
Crease 0.38 0.06
Two Point 0.17 -0.07
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.29 0.01
Topside 0.29 -0.01
Wing-alley 0.44 0.14
Wing-top 0.26 -0.03
X 0.43 0.12
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.21 -0.08
Dodge on LS 0.36 0.08
  • The Archers are your definition of an average PLL team with an absurd amount of one goal games.
  • They haven’t taken a ton of two point shots, but this week that may change as they play an Atlas team that struggles to defend the arc.
  • Stephen Kelly is the least efficient at faceoffs, but he has scored two goals for the Archers.

Key Player vs. Atlas- T. Schrieber

Week 3 against the Whipsnakes was really telling as far as what Schreiber can do for this offense. He gets the ball to to the right spot at the right time and is leading the team in goals created for a reason.

Atlas

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.19 -0.09
Crease 0.36 0.04
Two Point 0.26 -0.01
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.17 -0.11
Top 0.22 -0.09
Wing-alley 0.20 -0.1
Wing-top 0.29 0.02
X 0.35 0.04
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.21 -0.1
Dodge on LS 0.27 -0.02

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.21 -0.08
Crease 0.39 0.08
Two Point 0.7 0.42
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.26 -0.03
Top 0.25 -0.02
Wing-alley 0.67 0.35
Wing-top 0.32 0
X 0.17 -0.12
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.23 -0.05
Dodge on LS 0.36 0.08
  • The Atlas are getting ROASTED behind the two point arc, in the PLL defense is about more than defending the crease.
  • I’m curious to see if that wing- alley is a coincidence, at this point in the season I don’t think it is.

Key Player vs. Archers- T. Baptiste

This week the most efficient face off guy takes on the least efficient one. The Atlas are arguably the weakest team outside of their FOGO, and will need the extra possessions to remain competitive to challenge this solid Archers Defense.

Chaos

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.22 -.04
Crease 0.5 0.18
Two Point 0.44 -0.16
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.3 0.05
Top 0.25 0.02
Wing-alley 0.5 0.17
Wing-top 0.28 -0.01
X 0.17 -0.12
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.2 -0.08
Dodge on LS 0.44 0.16

Defense

Pts above average
Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.25 -0.03
Crease 0.42 0.09
Two Point 0.18 -0.09
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Alley 0.28 -0.01
Feed 0.11 -0.16
Other 0.29 -0.01
Power Play 0.4 0.1
Top 0.3 0
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0 0.29 Dodge on LS 0 0.3
  • The Chaos have the most dominant offense, and they are making great use of the most valuable shots in the game (2’s and crease).
  • The Chaos have such talented attackmen that they are doing better dodging against poles than short sticks.

Key Player vs. Chrome- Miles Thompson

Connor Fields has been doing a brilliant job creating, look for an early double on him. Miles Thompson has been doing a brilliant job handling the ball and deciding when to move it and when to finish. I expect a big day from him.

Chrome

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.25 -0.03
Crease 0 0
Two Point 0.15 0.15
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.29 -0.01
Top 0.25 0.01
Wing-alley 0.33 0.02
Wing-top 0.22 -0.09
X 0.29 0.01
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.37 0.09
Dodge on LS 0.15 -0.12

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.26 -0.03
Crease 0.36 0.36
Two Point 0.4 0.4
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.37 0.1
Top 0.21 -0.05
Wing-alley 0.11 -0.16
Wing-top 0.29 -0.03
X 0.33 0.02
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.31 0.03
Dodge on LS 0.23 -0.05
  • Don’t let the 0-4 record fool you the Chrome have been competitive, these are not the numbers of an inferior team.

Key Player vs. Chaos- Justin Guterding

Guterding is one of the best dodgers in the league and his points created shows that. Someone has to match Connor Fields on the other side.

Redwoods

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.19 -0.09
Crease 0.46 -0.14
Two Point 0 -0.22
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.29 -0.01
Top 0.25 0.01
Wing-alley 0.33 0.02
Wing-top 0.3 -0.02
X 0.17 -0.14
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.36 0.05
Dodge on LS 0.17 -0.12

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.19 -0.1
Crease 0.36 0.04
Two Point 0.26 -0.03
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.21 -0.09
Top 0.07 -0.23
Wing-alley 0.29 -0.04
Wing-top 0.33 0.05
X 0.26 -0.01
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.28 -0.01
Dodge on LS 0.22 -0.08
  • The Redwoods offense looked in sync, last week perhaps they have what it takes to take down the Whipsnakes

Key Player vs. Whipsnakes: J. Henningburg

He was on fire last week, and he looks to take on his old team. I’m sure we will be seeing 110% from him. He looks like the missing piece this attack needed.

Whipsnakes

Offense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.23 -0.05
Crease 0.29 -0.01
Two Point 0.32 0.06
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.26 -0.04
Top 0.06 -0.17
Wing-alley 0.5 0.24
Wing-top 0.45 0.17
X 0.2 -0.08
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.21 -0.06
Dodge on LS 0.29 0.01

Defense

Zone Points per shot Points above average
Other 0.19 -0.1
Crease 0.43 0.13
Two Point 0.3 0.03
Scoring Opp Points Per Shot
Pts above average
Alley 0.29 0.02
Top 0.32 0.05
Wing-alley 0.29 0
Wing-top 0.27 -0.03
X 0.28 -0.2
Short or Long-stick Points per shot
Pts above average
Dodge on SS 0.25 -0.02
Dodge on LS 0.33 0.03
  • In the same sense that the Chrome aren’t that much worse than the other teams. The Whipsnakes aren’t that much better then average. The parity in this league is nuts
  • That being said the Whipsnakes are doing a better job on their wing dodges than any team is doing on anything

Key Player vs. Redwoods – M. Rambo

Rambo created four goals last week, and the entire offense runs through him. The Redwoods have a stingy defense, he will be the one that will have to break it.

What We Look For In PLL By The Numbers

On each shot we tracked:

  1. The “zone” where a shot was taken
  2. Result of the shot
  3. Whether a short stick or a long stick was guarding the shooter
  4. The type of dodge (if any) to create shot

 

Possible Results: Goal, Save, Off-Cage, Botched Backup, 2 Pointer

SS or LS: Short-stick or long-stick

Scoring Opportunities: Alley – a north-south dodge away from the middle; Top – a north-south dodge from the topside; Wing-top – a high east-west dodge going topside; Wing-alley – a low east-west dodge going underneath; Power Play – man-up opportunity; Feed – No dodge, but ball movement occurred; X – Dodge from behind the goal.

Each metric shows the points above or below average, which is 0. Ex: if a score reads “+.05” than the team is 5% better than average in that category. We base all of our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3.

Also note, a “+” on defense is a bad thing, because you’re allowing points.

Potential Errors/Flaws in PLL By The Number’s Methodology

No metric is perfect, we want you guys to know what isn’t accounted for so you can combine it with the eye test and make informed decisions

  1. Turnovers – We don’t track turnovers, we focus solely on scoring opportunities
  2. Dodging Gray Areas – Some dodges, mainly ones with roll backs or re-dodges can be harder to track. We do our best to define everything, but it’s easy to second guess every classification.
  3. Human Error/Data entry – no one is perfect, but we’re doing our best!

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