Statistical mastermind Wayne Winston and his lacrosse-minded son Greg are back with the ‘PLL BTN By The Numbers‘ report! This new PLL New York analytics report includes offensive efficiency metrics, output charts, key insights and players to watch as we take a look at the PLL statistical totals through the PLL New York in advance of the PLL championship. We hope you enjoy!
PLL New York: PLL BTN
A shooting analytic originally designed by Patrick McEwen, that counts shots on a goal that didn’t go in as a loss of possession and assumes league average on the probability you retain possession on off cage shots. We have been tracking all off-cage shots but I generally mark it as a save when the goalie catches it even if it looks off cage because it has the value of a save from a functional standpoint. Still our league average checked out to be pretty similar to the one used originally by McEwen so it shouldn’t alter the numbers.
Here are the top players so far through PLL New York in Goals Added:
Here are the bottom players so far through PLL New York that have had the least production for the most wasted possessions:
On each goal we tracked the person who dodged to create it. Here are the players who have created the most points based on their dodges; if your dodge created a two pointer you get two points for the dodge, here’s the league rankings
Player Points Created
We converted faceoff wins to goals estimating the value of a possession at .3
On each shot we also tracked:
- The region where shot was taken
- Result of the shot.
- Whether a short stick or a long stick is guarding the dodger
- The type of Dodge (if any) that created the space (The last dodge that happened)
(Left and right are relative to offense)
A sample of the data is shown below.
No metric is perfect, we want you guys to know what isn’t accounted for so you can combine it with the eye test and make informed decisions
- We don’t track turnovers, we focus solely on scoring opportunities
- Dodging Gray Areas- Some dodges, mainly ones with roll backs or redodges can be hard to track. We do our best to define everything, but every week I think about a dodge I classified as one thing that could be another thing.
- Human Error/Data entry
Each metric is the points above or below average ex +.05= 5% better than average. We base our numbers on our estimated value of a possession being .3. Average is compared to an average shot in general in the league factoring in possession retainment
- Without Schreiber the Archers other midfielders stepped it up with Eipp and Ambler creating a combined six goals on the dodge
- In spite of missing last week Schreiber is tied for third in points created for midfield and ranks in the top twenty overall in goals added.
- Stephen Kelly is the worst primary faceoff guy in the league, but he’s still winning over fifty percent, and he is scoring in transition
Key Player vs. Atlas – Scott Ratliff
In addition to slowing down the solid midfield dodging unit Atlas has, Ratliff looked eager to push in transition last week. He had a goal called back.
- Baptiste is the real MVP in our eyes, Law is an overlooked candidate for attackmen of the year
- Brown is a below average shooter in goals added, but we believe that’s because he is shooting primarily long ones. Meanwhile Law leads the league in Goals Added because he is taking shots on the crease.
- Overall the Atlas are better off taking the alley then going topside, and having more success on the wing.
- Paul Rabil is in the bottom fifteen in goals added.
- Connor Buczek went from the bottom fifteen in goals added to the top fifteen because of his 9 point effort, before the bye week
- The Atlas have two poles shooting in the top 25 in Goals added (Noah Richard and Cade Van Raaphorst
- Expect Baptiste to win over 2/3 of his faceoffs this week
Key Player vs. Archers – Trevor Baptiste
Faceoffs have been the weak point for the Archers and a strong point for the Atlas.
- While the Chaos’s 2’s and crease shooting is still good they have dropped significantly in the playoffs
- The Chaos did a very good job taking away topside this year
- While he is a great set up man, Jones has been the least efficient shooter for the Chaos add -3.98 goals
- The Chrome attack duo of Wolf and Guterding has created 49 points off dodges. No other duo of attackmen is within ten
- Guterding and Crotty are the only two players in the top ten in both goals added and goals created
- The Chrome have the worst two point defense in the league allowing over .4 per shot
- Kyle Harrison is the least efficient shooter in the league nearly every week, yet he still has a prominent role on the team. Replace him with an average midfielder and it would make a huge difference
- The Redwoods offense has improved dramatically at two pointers during the playoffs. A Redwoods two pointer is still 10% worse than your average shot, but still
- Ryder Garnsey is climbing in both goals added and points created every week. We believe he had more of an impact than Tim Troutner and should’ve won rookie of the year.
- Salcido is low in goals added, but is a great dodger. If we had to pick one player in the league that would benefit from an invert it’d be him
- The Redwoods have a 42% chance to win the championship according to our spreadsheet.
Key Player vs. Whipsnakes – Matt Landis
He won the battle against Fields, now he takes on the league MVP.
- Chanenchuk has to be one of the most underrated players in the league 6.61 goals added and 11 points created. He stretches the defense and forces longer slides. We believe he should’ve been at least nominated for midfielder of the year.
- No Whipsnakes attackmen is shooting over a goal above average in goals added.
- The Whipsnakes defense is most vulnerable when they get attacked from the top. They face a Redwoods team that is best when they initiate from up top
- Locasio and Snider are the least efficient shooters for the Whipsnakes
- The Whipsnakes have a 58% chance to win the championship according to our spreadsheet.
Key Player vs . Redwoods – M. Chanenchuk
Chanenchuk is the PLL equivalent of James Harden, he will take the bomb, or blow by you and create something, thus stretching a disciplined Redwoods defense out and creating opportunities for others.