I’m learning to be open minded about evaluating lacrosse games – there are certain factors like matchups, and trends that may be predicted, but every lacrosse game has a certain variability of randomness and unpredictability. That’s even more pronounced at the pro level and what makes playoff lacrosse so compelling.
Teams who advance in September are talented, united, love each other and the game, and overflow with optimism and belief. All of the remaining teams in the PLL postseason fit the criteria of recent contenders: they have high-end players with point production, they have players with postseason history in the NCAA’s or PLL and a rock-solid team identity.
The most talented team doesn’t always win. Sometimes it’s the team that gets hot at the right time and plays above its talent. That’s tied directly to the high variance nature of lacrosse, when a team is getting bounces and playing well, it becomes an unstoppable force.
Playoff games contested between excellent teams are often decided by the lower roster spots. Assuming that the stars play like high end talent, the margin of error falls upon a team’s bottom-five to be the difference. Stars neutralize stars – so evaluate from the bottom up, not from the top down.
Gillette Stadium
Stars & Stripes Classic
A lacrosse matchup between Green Beret and Navy SEALs Veterans.
Monday September 2nd – Labor Day, 1:00pm ESPN+
PLL Quarterfinals
Boston (3) vs Carolina (6)
4pm ESPN2, Announcers: Drew Carter and Ryan Boyle
Boston (7-3) defeated Carolina 11-10 on Friday August 16 in overtime. Worrisome for the Cannons has been the third attack spot, a position that should thrive feeding off of Marcus Holman and Asher Nolting. Rookie Pat Kavanagh is just (8,4). The complimentary midfielders Chris Aslanian (11 points) and Alex Vardaro (8,0) are barometers. 16 two-point goals is the leagues best, but against Carolina goalie Blaze Riorden these outside shots are often turnover shots. The Cannons shoot 19% from two point range.
FOGO Zac Tucci is 48% and Boston are content to trade :32 possessions. Tucci won their June 15 game against the Waterdogs by scoring four points. Carolina activated FOGO James Reilly (50%) last week ahead of injured Nick Rowlett (37%). This FOGO matchup feels like a wash.
Carolina (4-6) can’t pass. They are (2-6) after opening (2-0). They’ve been held to 10 or less goals six times this summer. They’ve only hit 5 two-pointers and shoot 11% from distance.
Carolina is worst in these categories –
- 100 scores
- 278 shots
- 226 shots on goal
- 43 assists
- 276 ground balls
- 1844 passes
They lead the league in penalty minutes.
Attack-man Josh Byrne has 18 of the groups 43 assists. Ross Scott has two assists. Kyle Jackson has two assists. Sergio Perkovic and Eric Dobson have 0 assists. Multiple pass goals are in short supply as the assist to turnover ratio is awful.
Let the haters be your motivators.
That being said, Carolina has a hammer of a defense anchored by the best goalie in the league. Riorden was knocked out of the game on August 16, and should be fine. He is 59% for the year. Defenders Jack Rowlett, Jared Neumann and Will Bowen form the toughest close trio in the PLL. Can Carolina find goals in transition? Zach Geddes and Ian MacKay must strike on the run. Can they get upfield off of goalie saves?
However dysfunctional the offense may be, this team has toughness and will fight you for 48 minutes.
Maryland (4) vs Denver (5)
6:30pm ESPN+
Maryland finished the regular season with momentum – although a bye during the Salt Lake City weekend means they haven’t played since August 9 – more than a three week hiatus. Whips are (6-4) having won four straight dating back to their last loss on July 19.
TJ Malone and Zed Williams are the epicenter of the settled offense. Lefty Matt Rambo has picked his spots. Rookies Ajax Zappitello, Levi Anderson, Jack Koras and Adam Poitras changed the tenor of coach Jim Stagnitta’s season.
Last time we saw Denver they shot 6 of 31 in the first half against Utah and then 2 of 25 in the second half. They wilted. Rookie Brennan O’Neil has shot 3 for 27 during the last three games. Inconsistent results have been their calling card, with an offense that receives more than 50% of its production from rookies. Righty Graham Bundy has hit six two-pointers. Complimentary players like Josh Zwada, Cross Ferrara and Dalton Young must make an impact. Will Coordinating defender Jesse Bernhardt be back from injury? Their slide packages are tighter with the veteran roaming the middle.
Bye Week Plans
#1 NY Atlas and #2 Utah Archers
These teams will gather at Patriot Place for practices and meetings during their quarterfinal bye week.
I’ll be in Boulder for Coach Prime and Colorado’s home opener on Thursday August 29 against North Dakota State on ESPN at 8pm est.
Semifinals
The PLL semifinals will be hosted by Hofstra on Saturday September 7 (E+) at 5pm and 7:30pm. The PLL Cash App final can be seen on Sunday September 15 at 3pm on ABC from Subaru Park in Chester, PA.
