The PLL Semifinals will be upon us this weekend, with four teams fighting it out for the two spots in the 2021 PLL Championship. Using advanced stats, Winston Analytica has identified the crucial matchups in each contest that will play a major role in determining who survives for a shot at a title.
You can learn more about these stats and how they’ve been measured throughout the season here.
What the Stats Tell Us About the PLL Semifinals
Atlas v Chaos – Sunday, Sept. 5 at 11 a.m. EST
A revamped Atlas motion offense takes on a box-oriented Chaos team in what is sure to be a game loaded with goals.
Key Exploitable Matchup: Trevor Baptiste (18.17 goals added by possessions) v Max Adler (.92 goals added by possessions)
I believe the difference will ultimately not be the team with the better offense but the team that plays more offense. That will be Atlas, due to arguably the best FOGO on the planet. This is not a criticism of Max Adler as much as it is a statement that he will have his hands full.
Heavyweight Matchup: O-Mid Bryan Costabile (3.04 goals added, 15 goals created) v SSDM Mark Glicini (12 goals allowed)
One of the most talented O-mids meets one of the most talented D-mids to start off the 2021 PLL Semifinals. Costabile can do it all, and Glicini can do much more than step in front of a shot. Costabile has a slight advantage, but Glicini could win this battle.
Wayne Winston Projected Score: 13-11, Atlas (62% win probability)
Waterdogs v Whipsnakes – Sunday, Sept. 5 at 1:30 p.m. EST
The No. 1 seed meets the defending champs in a heavyweight battle between two potent offenses in the PLL Semifinals.
Key Exploitable Matchup: O-Mid Mikie Schlosser (2.475 goals added, 13 goals crated by the dodge) v SSDM Jake Bernhardt (19 goals allowed by the dodge)
One of the best midfield dodgers in the league meets the league’s most-exploited SSDM. Look for Schlosser to be the go-to initiator as the Whipsnakes poles are less exploitable than Bernhardt.
Heavyweight Matchup: Whipsnakes attack v Waterdogs close defense
Zed Williams (2.875 goals added, 18 goals created), Matt Rambo (1.505 goals added, 13 goals created), Jay Carlson (3.98 goals added, 1 goal created) v Eli Gobrecht (7 goals allowed), Ben Randall (3 goals allowed), Liam Byrnes (3 goals allowed)
An attack-heavy Whipsnakes offense meets a talented Waterdogs defense in the second PLL semifinals showdown. Liam Byrnes has an astounding 20 caused turnovers, paired with only getting beat on-ball three times, which is an amazing combination. However, this defense will have its hands full against two of the best attackmen in the game in Rambo and Zed. I don’t believe a defense exists in the world that can stop them from producing.
Wayne Winston Projected Score: 13-11, Waterdogs (62% win probability)
