The PLL Quarterfinals are right around the corner. It’s win-or-go-home time, and six of the league’s eight clubs are on the chopping block in the opening round.
To help us better understand what we can expect to see this weekend in the quarterfinals, I’ve taken a dive into some in-depth stats that can paint a picture of how players have impacted the play on the PLL field.
Bear in mind, these numbers included players from all eight teams in the PLL, not just those competing in the quarterfinals. Also, it’s important to note that these statistics are meant as a guide to improve understanding of the PLL season, not gospel for how good a player is or isn’t. There is more than one measure of a player’s success, and these numbers are everchanging throughout the season.
What Can These Stats Tell Us about the PLL Quarterfinals?
I should also mention that I’m human and do all tracking by re-watching games and recoding by hand. Calculation errors are possible.
Players in bold are on a team that’s active for the PLL Quarterfinals. Players that are italicized have a bye to the semifinals, and those that are in normal typeface are not in the postseason.
Goals added is a shooting analytic that uses the average percentage of possession retainment for off-cage shots and assumes all on-cage shots are saves (not a given) to factor in who is adding the most goals for their team.
This is the top 10 of the list.
|Colin Heacock (Chrome)||6.37|
|Sergio Perkovic (Redwoods)||6.29|
|Stephen Rehfuss (Cannons)||5.92|
|Ian MacKay (Chaos)||5.75|
|Jules Heningburg (Redwoods)||5.37|
|Jay Carlson (Whipsnakes)||4.76|
|Jackson Morrill (Chrome)||4.61|
|Paul Rabil (Cannons)||4.09|
|Ryan Drenner (Cannons)||3.98|
|Will Manny (Archers)||3.68|
Lots of Redwoods and Cannons in that top 10, but Sergio Perkovic won’t be available this weekend. Can Jules Heningburg add enough goals to get the Redwoods their first playoff win over the Whips? Can the Cannons trio do enough offensively to lift their team to an upset in the PLL Quarterfinals as the No. 7 seed?
This is the bottom 10, with some great players near the bottom.
|John Ranagan (Chrome)||-4.26|
|Connor Kelly (Waterdogs)||-4.76|
|Tom Schreiber (Archers)||-5.12|
|Justin Guterding (Whipsnakes)||-5.22|
|Daniel Bucaro (Atlas)||-5.61|
|Mike Chanenchuk (Whipsnakes)||-6.26|
|Ned Crotty (Chrome)||-7.80|
|Rob Pannell (Redwoods)||-7.87|
|John Haus (Whipsnakes)||-9.36|
Points Created by the Dodge
This stat awards a point if a dodge sets up a goal by either drawing a slide of the player scoring himself.
|Lyle Thompson (Cannons)||24|
|Myles Jones (Redwoods)||21|
|Grant Ament (Archers)||21|
|Tom Schreiber (Archers)||19|
|Josh Byrne (Chaos)||17|
|Bryan Costabile (Atlas)||15|
|Dan Bucaro (Atlas)||15|
|Rob Pannell (Redwoods)||15|
|Zach Currier (Waterdogs)||14|
|Stephen Rehfuss (Cannons)||14|
|Paul Rabil (Cannons)||14|
Lyle Thompson, Myles Jones, and Grant Ament are the same top three as my last update from July 22, and they’ll all be playing this weekend in the PLL Quarterfinals. How big of an impact can they each have for their teams, and will it be enough for them to advance?
This is the defensive equivalent of the points created stat (you don’t want to be on this list). Your one-on-one defense created offense either through a goal being allowed or a slide leading to a goal. I had to make some judgment calls in the two-man game.
Remember that the players who get challenged the most are most likely to get on this list, so take it with a grain of salt. Also, guarding Lyle Thompson is a good way to find your number up here.
Let’s break it down by team, ordering players on each PLL squad by how many points they’ve allowed. This can give us a good look at how balanced a team’s defense is and where opposition might be able to exploit matchups.
|Atlas||Cade Van Raaphorst||6|
FaceOffs Equated to Goals
Using the approximate value of a possession, we see how many goals each FOGO adds by gaining or losing possessions in faceoffs.
|Player||Faceoff Equated to Goals|
|Trevor Baptiste (Atlas)||15.87|
|TD Ierlan (Redwoods)||14.03|
|Joseph Nardella (Whipsnakes)||7.59|
|Jake Withers (Waterdogs)||4.37|
|Colin Squires (Whipsnakes)||-0.92|
|Max Adler (Chaos)||-1.15|
|Conor Gaffney (Archers)||-1.15|
|Graeme Hossack (Archers)||-1.15|
|Jake Pulver (Cannons)||-1.38|
|Charlie Leonard (Redwoods)||– 1.61|
|Danny Logan (Atlas)||-1.84|
|Connor Farrell (Chrome)||-2.07|
|Drew Simoneau (Redwoods)||-2.76|
|Stephen Kelly (Archers)||-3.45|
|Kyle Gallagher (Chaos)||-3.68|
|Kevin Reisman (Cannons)||-5.52|
Trevor Baptiste leaped to the top of the leaderboard, overtaking TD Ierlan and Joe Nardella, who both improved their numbers from my last update. The Redwoods will be without Ierlan in the PLL quarterfinals, though. Will that come with consequences? Will having the two other biggest impact FOGOs who will play this weekend make a big difference for Atlas and Whipsnakes?